Category: Trading

Dynabowl 2020 draft – exit survey

The picks are in. And more importantly the survey has been done. Let’s find out who said the meanest things about each other’s drafts!

Pete

Best player: Joe Burrow (pick 29) – 8 votes. A fairly easy call – Pete’s first pick was the #1 overall pick in the NFL draft. Curtis Weaver (pick 49) and Jeff Okudah (pick 60, 3rd overall pick in the NFL draft) each garnered a vote.

Best value: A tie with 2 votes between Curtis Weaver (pick 49), Jeff Okudah (pick 60), Malik Harrison (pick 71), Mykal Walker (pick 83). Damon Arnette and Noah Igbinoghene each got one vote. I can’t work out whether we think Pete got equally good value on all his picks, or equally bad value.

Worst value: Jeff Okudah (pick 60) – 5 votes. Taking the first QB off the board is always going to be a bit controversial. Burrow came in second on 2 votes.

Best name: Sterling Horfricther – 8 votes. Noah Igbinoghene would have been a leading candidate in most draft classes, but didn’t have a shot here.

Comments: “Apart from Burrow and Weaver I’m not sure any of the players will be better than FAs. Burrow was great value though.”; “Really need to include what Pete got for all of his early picks to fully evaluate. I suspect was very little so the rating might be generous”; “Not many picks, not much gained.”; “Late value and the first pick was a QB”

“Very little prep done this year, and it shows.”

“Nobody needs to draft 3 cornerbacks. I mean, you don’t really need to draft any. Unless they are one of about 4 players, they are largely interchangeable and/or random.”; “Tough to rate Pete’s draft due to not coming in early but he got his position of need and then stocked up on defensive prospects. Given that his team has a strong offence already I think there was good strategy at play here.”

Ben

Best player: Tie between Clyde Edwards-Hilaire (pick 1) and Jonathan Taylor (pick 2) – 3 votes. Ceedee Lamb (pick 4) and Isaiah Simmons (pick 12). It can’t be too bad when people can’t decide which is the best player out of the first 4 that you picked.

Best value: Antonio Gandy-Golden (pick 40) – 3 votes. A big week for Gandy-Golden, revealing he beat coronavirus and was a great value pick for Ben. Isaiah Simmons (pick 12) got 2 votes. 5 other players (CEH, Taylor, Gross-Matos, Lamb and Benjamin) each got a vote.

Worst value: Javon Kinlaw (pick 21) – 5 votes. I wholeheartedly agree. Isaiah Simmons completely his trifecta of runner-up spots, picking up 2 votes. Gandy-Golden, Lamb and Trevon Diggs (pick 75) each got 1 vote.

Best name: Antonio Gandy-Golden – 7 votes. I am shocked about the upset over Gross-Matos (2 votes), but I guess I’m a sucker for a rhyming name. Edwards-Hilaire got 1 undeserved vote.

Comments: “Some off the wall picks in the middle of the draft”; “Don’t feel like there’s any real value in this draft, it’s paying sticker price or higher for everyone in the early rounds and then a bunch of low-ish value late round picks”; “Not much ‘value’ per se as all the top picks have come at a premium. But you get your guy. Simmons overvalued there I think.”

“It’s tough to go wrong when you have 3 of the top 4 picks, and Ben managed to avoid any pitfalls. This should be transformational and take a team that’s not really been relevant since year one and turn them into challengers for the next 3 years. If it doesn’t then we know the GM is the problem. I look forward to his success infuriating Slatz.”

“Love the first round, but I think it lost its way in rounds 2 and 3. Good players, bad value.”; “Ben got good value out if his haul. Again you’d need to factor in what he gave up for his picks but I don’t think it was too much”

Goody

Best player: Ross Blacklock (pick 58) – 3 votes. A mixed bag as Deejay Dallas (pick 47) and CJ Henderson (pick 74) also got 2 votes and Darrell Taylor (pick 81), Jordan Love (pick 91) and Ashtyn Davis (pick 101) each got a vote. You could say that this shows he got good players throughout the draft. You could also say that this shows he had shit picks and picked shit players.

Best value: Darrell Taylor (pick 81) takes this home with 3 votes. Ashtyn Davis (pick 101) got 2 votes, though for my money he’s a better real player than fantasy player. Love, Henderson, Blacklock, Dallas and Shaquille Quarterman (pick 111) each got a vote. Again, no consensus.

Worst value: Finally, consensus! Jordan Love takes it home with 5 votes. And Jalen Hurts (pick 69) comes in 2nd with 3 votes. Picking a backup QB to a franchise QB isn’t popular. Ross Blacklock got the remaining vote.

Best name: Shaquille Quarterman – 7 votes. Deejay Dallas got the other 3, but frankly the only thing worse than the quality of players here is the quality of names.

Comments: “I basically like none of these picks – two back up QBs, a bunch of defenders and a guy who has a shot at being the lead RB on a team who like to swap them on a weekly basis, but also the 3rd RB on that team. No draft capital to speak of, but what they had was wasted.”; “Not a lot to work with, but might as well punt on two dubious QBs?”

“Jordan Love to be MVP All Pro.”

“It was fine. I don’t like his plan of taking two long-term backup QBs. Apart from them he got some decent prospects given his utter lack of capital.”; “I haven’t really heard of any of the players goody took”; Love is a terrible pick I’m glad he took, because it meant other players fell an extra slot down. Other than that, he couldn’t do much, not having a pick in the top 4 rounds. If only he could have traded one of his WRs to Pete for a first round pick.”; “It’s hard to rate a worst value pick when Goody only had two picks before the 7th round. I like the Ross Blacklock pick, i had been about to take him. I’m not convinced using two picks on QBs when you have so few is a great idea, even if they were pretty inconsequential picks.”

Geoff

Best player: Tua Tagovailoa (pick 32) – 6 votes. Not bad value to get your best player with your 4th pick (although that might say more about the first 3). His first two picks shared the remaining votes though: Denzel Mims (pick 11) with 3 and Tee Higgins (pick 16) with 1.

Best value: Tee Higgins (pick 16) with 3. Derrick Brown (pick 51) came in second with 2 votes, and Chaisson (pick 37), Gay (pick 36), Josh Kelley (pick 24), Mims (pick 11) and Grant Delpit (pick 66) each got a vote. It seems like there was general praise for how Geoff worked the middle rounds of the draft.

Worst value: Apart from picking Adam Trautman at 34. 4 votes for him. Kelley and Higgins each got 2, with Mims and JaMycal Hasty picking up a vote each.

Best name: Hasty might be bad value, but he’s a great name. 9 votes for him. Willie Gay is an underrated funny name for childish reasons, so he prevented Hasty’s clean sweep.

Comments: “I like both Mims and Higgins but better value at 24. Strnad could be good value.”; “A bit of a meh draft. Trading out of the 1st resulted in more picks but less oooomph”; “Missing out in the first round hurts a little. Mims and Higgins are an interesting pairing.”; “Lots of players, and lots who will likely be good in the nfl, but I’m not convinced they will be great in fantasy. It’s still pretty good, he got the best fantasy TE available, though in a shit year for TEs. There are quite a lot of players here I didn’t really have down as players worth picking when they came off the board, but he complained about being sniped consistently. Maybe there’s another world where he got a truly transcendent draft.”

“A class full of strong names. Getting Derrick Brown where he did was great value.”

“Mike is another who has stacked up plenty of good prospects on both sides. Really, it’s hard to have a bad draft (on first inspection) when you have so many picks so expect these comments to come out for Slatz and Chris too. I like the Tee Higgins pick a lot, Mike could well have got a WR1/2 for many years for a mid-2nd. Adam Trautman is overdrafted there though I think, maybe a round too early.”

Slatz

Best player: a tie between Jerry Jeudy (pick 7) and Chase Young (pick 6). 5 votes each. Not really hard to argue with that.

Best value: Jerry Jeudy runs away with it with 7 votes. Brandon Aiyuk (pick 17), Justin Herbert (pick 46) and Bradlee Anae (pick 100) each got a vote. I assume people ignored what it cost Slatz to trade up to get Jeudy.

Worst value: a (surprising, in my opinion) tie. Chase Young and Herbert (pick 46) each got 3 votes. I would have bet on Young winning this at a canter. Zack Moss (pick 26), Chase Claypool (pick 10), Aiyuk and Donovan Peoples-Jones (pick 63) each got a vote.

Best name: Donovan Peoples-Jones recovers from the ignominy of being an overrated late round pick to win best name, with 5 votes. Jerry Jeudy ran him close with 3 votes and Claypool and Davion Taylor each picked up a vote.

Comments: “He picked a bunch of players around their ADP or later, which is good, but they are pretty much all players I’m not a fan of. But I’m probably wrong. I think Young is great but he’s way overdrafted, especially given that he traded a lot to then get Jeudy.”; “Really good depth across offence and defence. I love the picks of Young and Moss. Some superb value with Jeudy and McFarland”

“Seems pretty good although gave next year’s first to achieve it. No bad picks standing out.”

“Hightower and Anae are strong picks that I was lining up for my next pick when he took them. Moss is a sneaky good pick too, and Jeudy shouldn’t have fallen to him at 7 (or 6, when he also could have taken him). Herbert is a wasted pick in my book though. Not as egregious as Love but I don’t see him being a viable nfl starter over the next three years.”; “I think both of the Steelers were taken a bit too high here so I’ve dinged the overall rating slightly but Slatz’ roster, overall, is stacked now and he did some fantastic work in round 1 to come away with Jeudy at 7 and snag the hands-down best defensive player in the draft. Young may have been a small reach but he was out on his own at the top and when you have a ton more picks coming up in a deep draft it doesn’t matter if you go and get that guy.”

Neil

Best player: AJ Epenesa (pick 53) with 7 votes. Lynn Bowden (pick 44) picked up the other 2. Surprising consensus, when compared to the other guys who didn’t join the draft until late.

Best value: Epenesa again, with 5 votes. Bowden picked up 3 votes and Devin Duvernay (pick 42) picked up 1. Not bad, your first 3 picks each garnering at least 1 “best value” vote.

Worst value: Not all good though, as Duvernay picked up worst value with 3 votes. Bowden picked up 2 votes, as did Jeff Gladney (pick 94). Isaiah Hodgins (pick 64) and Epenesa each picked up a vote.

Best name: A tie, but with early picks again performing well. Lynn Bowden and Duvernay picked up 2 votes each, as did Brycen Hopkins. Gladney and Uche eached picked up a vote, but this is a very poor name class.

Comments: “Not bad given the lack of early picks. Made his highest picks count.”; “I don’t understand the CB picks. He had 4 on the books and took 2 more. They are largely interchangeable and you shouldn’t be spending more than about $5 on 3 of them for the season.”

“Negative points for too many traditional names. Seriously, none of these players were on my list apart from Uche.”

“A lot of good potential contributors and very hard to pick a “worst value” player. Good work with shit capital. He should stop trading away all his picks.”; “I haven’t heard of many of the players past AJ Epenesa so I picked the first one as worst value (this is more of an indictment of me than Neil). I’ve rated the draft pretty low more because I can’t really see what Neil has on his roster to make up for the fact he didn’t have any early round picks.”; “Considering where he started picking, there’s solid value here with a lot of offensive guys who can contribute.”

Benj

Best player: Patrick Queen (pick 10) with 7 votes. Antonio Gibson (pick 20) picked up 2 votes, and Xavier McKinney (pick 50) picked up 1.

Best value: a tie between Queen and McKinney. Gabriel Davis (pick 61) also picked up a vote.

Worst value: Patrick Queen picks up his 3rd win, with 4 votes. The next two picks also challenged, with Gibson and Tyler Johnson (pick 30) each picking up 2 votes. Xavier McKinney and Reggie Begelton (pick 104) each got a vote too.

Best name: Begelton might have only got 1 pick as worst value, but got 8 picks as best name. An amazing achievement for a player who shouldn’t even have been eligible for the draft (he already went undrafted 3 years ago). Troy Dye picked up 2 votes.

Comments: “An okay draft. I don’t think there is many special talents there apart from Queen. Get your guy”; “It’s tough to give a high score when your first pick is an LB and your second is a project RB (even if I like him). But a bunch of good, probably high floor players.”; “I just don’t see a lot of value here – first pick is an overpay for a defender, second is an RB who is not value at RB as he’s a WR and third is a WR who may not play immediately. This is not a draft which helps keep the team on top.”

“Not a fan of Ben’s haul overall. The 10th pick is tough though. Queen is the only pick likely to contribute much”

“I don’t think Johnson is bad value, but I understand why others do. I put him as worst because arguably he could have been got later, but I didn’t have a pick for 20 picks and he’d definitely have been gone by then. I’m largely happy with what I achieved. The fact that a tier of WRs ran out just before my second round pick really frustrated me, but I’m happier with Queen than one of the WRs. I’ve been shit at picking WRs anyway, no doubt whoever I would have taken at 10 would have turned out to be the dud.”

Max

Best player: D’Andre Swift (pick 8) with 6 votes. Michael Pittman (pick 15) and Laviska Shenault (pick 19) each got 2 votes.

Best value: Pittman and Devin Asiasi (pick 38) each got 3 votes. Quintez Cephus (pick 48) got 2 votes – I really like him. Shenault and Keshawn Vaughn (pick 18) each got 1.

Worst value: Devin Asiasi takes this one too, with 3 votes. A controversial choice. Jeremy Chinn and Keshawn Vaughn (pick 18) got 2 votes. Swift, Pittman and Shenault with 1 each.

Best name: Quintez Cephus takes this easily, with 7 votes, Shenault probably suffered from familiarity, only getting 2 votes, and Neville Gallimore, which I think is just a dull name, got 1.

Comments: “Solid draft. Swift so late in the first when a month ago he was a potential #1 overall is an indictment of the Lions, but also great value as they probably aren’t permanently bad either.”; “I like this draft. I love Pittman, Chinn and Asiasi. Some solid picks and a couple of players chosen after others of worst value”

“Max started well with the first 4 picks but then seemed to lose his way. Did he get bored?”

“I like most of the picks here, and he did really well to get two potential starting RBs at good value. Cephus is a really promising sleeper too. The obsession with Patriots at the end was weird though.”; “I said Swift was the worst value, but that’s only because Detroit is where RBs go to die. In theory getting him at 8 is great value. There are lots of people who that I don’t know who they are and I think the same might be true for Max.”

“Even I think I took Asiasi too early. I also don’t know why I have 4 New England offensive players in my draft.”

Ian

Best player: JK Dobbins (pick 5) waltzes home with 8 votes. Kenneth Murray (pick 25) and Antoine Winfield (pick 67) got 1 vote each.

Best value: Logan Wilson (pick 45) with 4 votes takes the crown. Antoine Winfield and Dobbins each picked up 2 votes. Murray and Dezmon Patmon (pick 119) got a vote.

Worst value: Joe Reed (pick 59) and Kenneth Murray (pick 25) each got 3 votes. Murray is a surprise, I really like him and its a more traditional value for a first round LB, given where Simmons and Queen went. Justin Madubuike (pick 56) got 2 votes, and Logan Wilson and Thaddeus Moss (pick 99) got 1 vote.

Best name: A high quality category, but McTelvin Agim saw off the competition with 6 votes. Albert Okwuegbunam picked up 2 votes. Thaddeus Moss and Dezmon Patomn each got a vote.

Comments: “Okay but not spectacular. Would have liked some better players with the midround picks. Logan Wilson could be amazing IMO”; “I usually like Ian’s drafts, but Dobbins doesn’t necessarily help immediately, and then two linebackers to fill out his top 50, makes for an opportunity missed to improve a team which missed the playoffs again last year.”

“I missed not having a 2nd round pick. A lot of talent was selected whilst I was waiting for my 2nd pick. I did okay with what I had but not the most exciting group.”

“There are maybe 3 players here I’d quite like on my roster. I’m not convinced by Murray. Winfield is a great pick though. He also picked a player he refused to name when he announced him, which can’t do much for squad morale.”; “Ian’s done some good work here. I was torn between Wilson and Winfield as best value, both are defensive players that should challenge for his starting spots immediately. Ian will be happy to have JK Dobbins there over Cam Akers too, for my money.”

Chris

Best player: Cam Akers (pick 3) with 5 votes. You’d better hope a high pick is your best player. The next 3 picks also got votes: Justin Jefferson (pick 9) with 3, Jalen Reagor (pick 13) and Henry Ruggs (pick 14) with 1 each.

Best value: Bryan Edwards (pick 35) with 4 votes. Henry Ruggs picked up 2 votes, and Darrynton Evans (pick 33), Akers, Reagor and Jefferson each picked up 1.

Worst value: Cam Akers with 6 votes. I wholeheartedly agree, but just liked having a Rams RB when Gurley had knees, and couldn’t get any value to trade down. KJ Hamler got 3 votes and Henry Ruggs got 1. The correct answer was to leave this blank because all of my picks were great.

Best name: A poor quality category. AJ Dillon won with 4 votes, beating Darrynton Evans’ 2. Reagor, Cole Kmet and Raekwon Davis each picked up votes.

Comments: “Can’t fail to hit on a few receivers”; “As ever, a good draft. I love the Edwards pick there. Less sure of Jefferson quite so high though.”;

“Really good draft. Smashed the WRs. Akers is high at 3 (I prefer Dobbins) but could be Rookie of the year”

“I would have liked to trade down to get Akers slightly later, but I didn’t get sniped for anyone so I’m ok with how it ended up. Very happy with my draft (and lawn).”; “I mean. All the wide receivers. Just when you thought he must be done with them he wasn’t and he took some more. He’ll either end up with loads of value or no viable starters out of it. Hopefully the latter, because that would be hilarious, saving the rest of us from the dregs. I don’t like either the Akers of Ruggs picks. Akers wasn’t good value there at all and Ruggs I don’t think is good full stop.”; “Great draft overall. Chris didn’t have a huge need at defence and knows that our league inexplicably values offensive players much higher than their equivalent defensive players so he is absolutely set to have a good team going forward whilst being able to trade some pieces to draft well in future. My only knock would be that I think, given the quantity of picks he had, he could have traded down from 3rd spot for some future draft capital.”

Overall scores (averages). I’ve just kept these till here to keep you reading.

Ben A: 8.2

Chris: 7.3

Slatz: 7.2

Geoff: 6.2

Max: 6.0

Ian: 5.8

Neil: 5.0

Benj: 4.4

Goody: 4.2

Pete: 4.0

Overall conclusions

Who had the best draft: shockingly, this matches up with the average scores above. Ben A gets 7 votes. Slatz, Neil and Chris each got 1 vote.

Who had the worst draft: A tie, with 3 votes each: Pete, Benj and Goody. Ian also got a vote, so I guess wins most polarising draft.

Suggestions for how to improve the draft in future: “Nope. It’s my favourite weekend of the year”;

“People would announce their picks properly and MFL would allow more characters for comments of players after they’ve been drafted”;

“We should have to get all picks approved by Slatz in order to make sure we draft players at the right time”

“More trades. More high picks for me. More research and preparation for me. More people taking shit QBs and CBs. More rounds. Do it more often – can we have a draft once a month?”;

“I would love to do it in person again at some point if Coronavirus allows.”

A Trade Retrospective

With another draft in the books, I thought it’d be interesting to take a retrospective look at some of the more complicated trades over recent seasons, and the domino effect of those trades, so I’ve picked out six that I think are more complicated and wide reaching, or involved big names in trades to see what sort of return they netted in the end. I’ve avoided some of the bigger seeming trades where minimal picks were involved (the TY Hilton trade for example) as they essentially come down to player valuation at the time, and focused on pick heavy trades – particularly where they involved further trading down the line. I’ve ranked them very unscientifically in order of blockbusteriness and interestingness.

Six

  • DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 3.02 & 5.02 and 2017 Round 5 Pick
  • Dynasty of Sadness – 2016 2.02

Two teams that will turn up pretty often in these trades in are the Sadness and the Firebirds, but I like this trade because while there’s a lot of multi-pick trades where team A moves up a few places in a high round at the cost of moving down more places in a later round this is a much simpler decision to pay to move up. So what does the trade value chart make of this? 2.02 is worth 1200 points while 3.02 (780) and 5.02 (480) combine to more points without the additional 5th rounder in 2017 (based on 6.05 this is worth 350). In total the Firebirds paid 1610 points, the equivalent of 1.06 in order to get this pick. Or should I say, get this pick back. Since he’d previously traded it to the Sadness in exchange for Markus Wheaton about a month before. So… Firebirds ended up giving up three picks, of decent value, in order to get back a pick he spent on Markus Wheaton (who’s scored a whopping 13.1 points for him since the trade), which seemed a reach for a guy who was only around the 40th best receiver the season before (although he did finish the previous season hot).

So what did the Firebirds end up with, aside from Wheaton, for this treasure trove – CJ Prosise. A handcuff to the Thomas Rawls, acquired in an earlier trade (1.09 spent on Devontae Booker and 2.05 which was traded on again and eventually spent on Kenyan Drake, and neither of which Neil originally started with, as I’ll cover later). Prosise looked reasonably good in limited action before his injury, and getting the handcuff to Rawls seems smart in retrospect given how much he’s struggled with injuries when he’s played and how unconvinced by him Seattle seemed to be last year. Sadly that might not be enough with Lacy now in town, the expensively acquired Prosise and Rawls could both be out of the picture, unless they get smart, team up and open a burger joint near CitiLink Field.

That’s just looking at the Firebirds side of the trade though, what happened to the picks the Sadness acquired. 3.02 was spent on Mike Thomas, sadly not the one in New Orleans. LA Rams receiver Mike Thomas has been considerably worse, with a total of only 6.2 points as a rookie. He may yet turn into a good receiver, but the Rams passing offence doesn’t seem any better than last year’s putrid edition, the Rams invested in more weapons for Goff that might see Thomas fall down the depth chart all together and right now he’s probably a candidate for the chop, only one year in. And speaking of the putrid Rams offence, 5.02 was spent on the source of the terrible smell – Jared Goff. I think we all know how that’s turned out so far. As for the 2017 5th rounder (5.04) – it’s turned into Ishmael Zamora, the dog-beater. There’s really no way to know how that pick turns out at this point, but unless the plan is to dress Thomas and Goff as dogs then I’m not sure Zamora will really end up being the important part of rescuing this trade for the Sadness.

I don’t think we can pick winners or losers on a lot of these, but if we were, I’d probably shade this one to Neil right now. It also highlights an interesting point – trading down and getting good value for a premium pick is a solid strategy, but you have to spend the picks wisely when you do, not on the Rams passing offence.

Five

  • Tamworth Two – Snead, Willie NOS WR, 2016 Round 1 Pick and 2017 Round 2 Pick
  • DynaForOne Firebirds – Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

So here’s a different sort of trade to the first – a player swap, with picks to make up the difference. This pick took place in season, so the final value of both picks wasn’t known at the point of trade, but one was for the current season and it was done at the deadline with T2 in the thick of the playoff battle, so I’d call it the 1.08 pick on average, rather than the usual 1.05 average that I’d use for a future pick, but the total value of the picks still comes to close to the 3rd overall pick. That’s a lot of value, but Thomas was a stud receiver at the time, number three overall in 2014 but struggling a little in 2015 – mostly because of Peyton Manning falling off a cliff and being unable to complete a pass over 10 yards. Those sorts of talents are generally going for double firsts, which suggests Snead – not unreasonably as he’d end up putting up nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie over only 9 games, a record for an undrafted player’s rookie season – was either valued at a first himself, or maybe that the Firebirds gave Thomas up slightly cheap.

In actual fact though this is a really savvy deal, Thomas’ struggles continued in 2016 and it’s hard to remember a receiver coming back from the sort of extended dip he’s struggled through and T2 have been left with a top six salary for a player who couldn’t crack the top 20 in 2016. Between the IRL big contract and the continued problems at QB for Denver it’s not unreasonable to suggest the struggles aren’t going away. As for Snead, he followed up his 984 yards and 3 TDs with 895 yards and 4 TDs, but over 16 games. That’s probably because of the emergence of Michael Thomas in the second half of the year and the presence of Cooks, with Cooks gone Snead could break out in a bigger role in 2017. And if nothing else, he’s been so much cheaper than Thomas for similar production, and is younger, so without the picks I’d be tempted to call Neil a winner here – despite Thomas having a proven ceiling considerably higher. However, put that aside, because the pick value removes any doubt. Even with the worst picks in the world Neil’s value on this trade is off the chart. Which is probably good as Neil spent the first rounder he received as part of the Rawls trade (along with 2.05 which ended up traded around until it became Kenyan Drake – told you it would come up again), which has worked out OK, but hasn’t produced the top ten stud RB he would have hoped given the price. The 2.05 pick that the 2017 pick also ended up traded, to the Sadness along with 2.04 (and was spent on James Conner), to get the 9th overall pick which was spent on Alvin Kamara. Given that the pick traded for Rawls ended up the same pick that then subsequently got traded in 2017 the best way to look at this is probably that it’s Thomas for Snead and Rawls. Even with Rawls disappointing 2016 and unconvincing position for 2017, I’d call Neil a clear winner on this one simply because I’m not convinced Thomas has a path back to being an elite receiver right now. A pattern is emerging, don’t fuck with Neil when it comes to trades.

Four

  • Dynasty of Sadness – Tate, Golden DET WR and 2016 Picks 3.01 & 5.01
  • Champions of the Sun – 2016 Picks 1.06 & 3.10

It wouldn’t be a trade review if these two didn’t show up in it somewhere trading picks. While a lot of their trades are the sort of up in one round down in another sort of trades I mentioned in the first trade I highlighted, this one is a little more straight-forward. This is a chunk of stuff given up by one team to get a high pick off the other. I picked this one here as it involves a player as a makeweight to trade up, unlike number six which was purely about picks or number five which was mostly about trading for a star.

Let’s start with the pick valuation and see what it values Tate as in terms of a pick. Champions are giving up 2220 points of value, while Sadness give up 1290, a difference of 930 which equates to somewhere roughly in the middle of 2.07 and 2.08. Given the valuations we’ve seen of Thomas, Snead and Landry, this is probably on the low side for Tate, who was coming off something of a breakout first year in Detroit and looking at a potentially bigger role with Megatron retiring. Even with him not being as young as any of those mentioned, it’s still less than was paid for Wheaton who was considerably less productive and with far greater downside. Initially then this looks like being advantage Champions.

Fortunately for the Sadness, they played a blinder with the big pick, nabbing Michael Thomas at 1.06 – a top receiver in his rookie season, and a big part (along with Elliot) of why the Sadness made a playoff run. With Cooks gone, he has an opportunity to take on an even bigger role in the next couple of seasons. The 3.10 pick was spent on Jordan Payton who’s delivered the square root of fuck all so far in Cleveland, but there’s time for that to change. Similarly the two picks given up by Sadness have gone on QB development prospect Paxton Lynch who’s shown little to nothing so far (though was not expected to deliver anything in 2016), and Washington RB non-event Keith Marshall as the Champions correctly didn’t trust Matt Jones, but wrongly pegged Marshall rather than Fat Rob Kelley as the solution.

Right now this trade essentially boils down to Tate for Thomas, and that’s a clear win for the Dynasty of Sadness.

Three

  • Dynasty of Sadness – Bryant, Dez DAL WR and 2017 Round 5 Pick
  • Dyna Hard – Morris, Alfred DAL RB and Diggs, Stefon MIN WR and 2016 Pick 1.08 and 2017 Round 1 Pick

OK, so as a one-off trade goes, this is probably the blockbusteriest trade so far in the Dynabowl, two firsts, Stefon Diggs and Alfred Morris for Dez Bryant and a make-weight future 5th. It’s like the Thomas trade, only with sprinkles on top (Morris, two firsts instead of a first and a second). Only here’s the thing, much like Thomas, Bryant comes with a huge price tag and was coming off a disappointing year – injuries rather than Peyton Manning being the limiting factor as he produced only 57 points. And much like Thomas, he failed to deliver in 2016 as well, an injury hit start hurting his total points and putting him out of the top twenty, but even his point per game return wouldn’t have been enough for a top ten finish. As for Diggs – he wasn’t as electric as Snead in his rookie year, but he showed flashes and attracted interest off the taxi squad. Much like Snead, he’s not a better player than the one he’s been traded for… yet. But he’s in a position to succeed, as a key part of his offence, and you’d rather be buying stock in Snead/Diggs right now than in Bryant or Thomas (though I’d favour Bryant over Thomas as a comeback candidate, because the Cowboys are better at QB right now and because Bryant’s been hurt rather than just bad).

Morris is mostly irrelevant to this trade, but he had a relatively unfriendly salary for a handcuff to the Sadness’ presumptive number one Elliot, so it was a worthwhile addition with cap space spare.

As for the picks – the 2016 1.08 was used on Kenneth Dixon, who’s sometimes looked good, but failed to really cement himself as the Baltimore lead running back as yet, unless he does this seems like a lost pick. The 2017 pick was traded back twice, to 1.08 with the Brees, then 2.01 with the Dungeoneers, netting a fifth rounder (subsequently traded down to move up from 2.04 to 2.02) and to move up 5 places in the 4th. The final landing spot at 2.01 was used on Kareem Hunt. Hunt has talent and if either he or Dixon end up as a number one back and a good RB1/2 to complement Elliot as the Sadness’ stud then they’re clear winners here. Similarly if Diggs develops into a good receiver at a WR2 sort of level, while Bryant fails to become a clear WR1 again, then you’d have to call the Sadness winners here, however if Dixon and Hunt end up in RBBC situations, and Diggs never really breaks out of the WR3/Flex level he was in his second year, then it’s probably going to favour Dyna Hard as I just don’t think Bryant is done yet, and even as an overpaid WR2 he still offers more than three at-best flex level players. All in all there’s a lot of ifs around this, and it could easily go either way still, so I think it’s fair to move on without declaring a clear winner.

Two

  • Dynasore Losers – 2016 1.04 to Firebirds; 2016 3.04 and 2017 Round 1 Pick to Tamworth Two
  • DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 4.02 and 2017 Round 1 Pick
  • Tamworth Two – Landry, Jarvis MIA WR and 2016 3.09

There’s two different trades here, but ultimately the two go together as the Losers deal with the Firebirds was an attempt to recoup the 2017 first rounder lost in the deal for Landry as the 2017 draft seemed a lot stronger than the 2016 one did. So how did this all shake out?

The Firebirds gave up a pick valued in advance at 1.05, but which ultimately became 1.04, the same pick given up to get Landry, while the 2017 first became 1.02. As such the Losers didn’t lose spots in the draft as they ended up trading away their 2016 1.04 for what became the 2017 1.04, but because they ended up losing their own 1.02 and gaining the Firebirds 1.04 they did actually lose two spots. Still following? Good.

The Firebirds pick became Corey Coleman. So far he’s been better than Doctson and Treadwell, taken ahead of him, but worse than Shepherd and Michael Thomas who were taken after him. With only 60 points in his rookie season he’s a long way from being worth the first rounder given up to get him yet, but receivers do sometimes take time, and the Browns have a terrifyingly bad QB situation, so there’s still hope for him as that potentially improves.

The two picks the Firebirds gave up to get Coleman became Christian McCaffrey and Deion Jones. Right now there’s no two ways about this, Jones looks like a stud, scoring nearly 80 more points than Coleman in his rookie year as the top point scorer among (drafted) defensive rookies, and the 4th highest (drafted) rookie scorer (non-QB) in his class. Obviously, that’s only one season, but that’s all we have for both players so far.

As for the second half of the trade, the first given up on Landry was spent on Corey Davis. This worked out pretty well for both sides, with the Losers getting McCaffrey at #4 from their own trade into 2017 (who they would have taken at #2 anyway, given the need at RB) and T2 moving ahead of the Brees who had hoped to snag Davis at #3. It’s impossible to evaluate this up front, as Davis has yet to appear in an NFL game, but who wins that trade in the long run comes down to whether Landry or Davis ends up being the better receiver. As for the exchange of thirds… Rashard Higgins has produced little to nothing so far for T2, but does have great hair and plenty of time to come good (hopefully not a sign of things to come from Davis for them) while the 3.09 pick that went the other way was used in a package with Charles Sims to nab two picks from the Brees which were spent on DeAndre Washington and Adolphus Washington, if DeAndre Washington ends up a starter in Oakland then this part of the deal certainly favours the Losers, but that’s a big if with Beast Mode coming home to Oakland and looking to be the feature back for them. Adolphus may or may not do anything in the long run, it’s simply too early to say. If none of these three develop into viable fantasy options, then it will literally come down to the two receivers. While that’s certainly true when it comes to the long-term evaluation of the trade, it’s also fair to say that just on a fundamental level it’s almost always going to be better in a trade to get a young receiver with proven production rather than trading for a pick to draft one, no matter how highly they’re regarded – especially when that trade is for an unknown draft pick in the subsequent year’s draft.

The net of this three way trade is that the Losers bagged Christian McCaffrey, Deion Jones, Jarvis Landry and DeAndre Washington. T2 netted Corey Davis and Rashard Higgins while the Firebirds got Corey Coleman. A lot depends on how Coleman and Davis do over the next two or three years, but it’s fair to say that if McCaffrey is a bust the Losers have at worst got a pair of quality starters and for either T2 or the Firebirds to feel happy about their parts in this deal they’ll need their own high pick receivers to out-perform Landry at a minimum. It seems fair to say at this point though that the big loser looks to be the Firebirds, who’s Jedi trade tricks fail to work a third time as McCaffrey and Jones for Coleman seems heavily weighted in favour of the Losers, regardless of how Landry for Davis works out.

One

  • Here Comes The Brees –  2016 Picks 1.05 & 1.06 to Champions of the Sun; Donald, Aaron STL DT to Dynablaster Bombermen
  • Champions of the Sun – Robinson, Allen JAC WR
  • Dynablaster Bombermen – 2016 Round 1 & 4 Draft Picks and 2017 Round 1 Pick

Much like the previous example this is a three way trade essentially, but this with the Brees at the centre of it. In one sense the Brees gave up Donald to get Robinson, and got a 4th out of it but it’s a touch more complicated than that. Basically the Brees picked up a pair of firsts, spending the first of them, along with their own 2016 pick to get Allen Robinson. That’s not out of line with the prices paid for Bryant and Thomas, without giving up a young receiver in return. However that wrongly puts Thomas and Bryant (established studs with better seasons) on a par with Robinson who had one good season off the back of a high number of TD scores. Where Thomas and Bryant struggled to recapture their best form, which is probably what put them on the market, Robinson’s 2016 fall feels more like gravity pulling him back down (although he dropped further than I would have expected and should bounce back some in 2017). There’s arguments both ways on this as Robinson is also younger, had a decent seeming offence in place and had a season on the cheap before a massive extension would be due, however it was a massive pay rise as he jumped into the top tier of receivers, unlike Landry (who also commanded a first plus trade price) who finished just shy of a top tier extension cost. Ultimately, double firsts (and better ones than were paid for Bryant / Thomas) seems an slight overpay, just because Thomas and Landry didn’t quite stretch to double firsts, and I just don’t think he was established as a top tier player like Bryant and Thomas were, but it’s certainly not an indefensible one.

Meanwhile, Champions spent the 1.05 on Sterling Shepherd and traded away the 1.06 in the previously discussed Tate / Michael Thomas trade. So instead of picking Thomas and Shepherd and being clear winners in this trade they’ve ended up trading away a potential stud for a pair of at-best WR2s. That seems like a push at the moment, and will most likely come down to whether or not Robinson delivers WR1 value. If he doesn’t, his extension cost will mean the value pairing of Tate and Shepherd win out, but Shepherd’s ceiling is low with an in-decline Eli and a much-better Odell Beckham limiting his value to somewhere in the region of a WR3 and Tate looked poor for most of last year as Detroit struggled offensively so there’s plenty of scope for both sides to come away feeling unhappy about this, especially with what could have been for the Champions with Thomas.

And that brings us to the other side of this deal. While the Brees co-managers sit there wondering if they’re going to be stuck with a massively overpaid disappointment in Robinson, the Bombermen get Aaron Donald – outscoring all receivers and all other defensive players in both 2015 and 2016. I call that a win at almost any price. The two firsts the Bombermen gave up – 1.05 in 2016 and 1.08 in 2017 have gone on receivers, partly on Robinson as discussed and on Jon Ross (via a small trade up from 8 to 7), but realistically unless you end up with two WR1s out of that, then it’s hard to call it anything other than a loss, especially considering the massive salary differential between top tier receivers and a top DT (even after the Suh deal this summer). There is a light at the end of this tunnel though, and it might not even be a train. The Rams might be changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme with Jeff Fisher and Greg Williams being shown the door. If Donald ends up moved from DT to DE his point-scoring will drop significantly (just look at Kerry Hyder’s points in 2016’s league and in 2017’s following re-classification, they’ve virtually halved), and his extension cost will sky-rocket, if that happens then what looked like a rock solid win for the Bombermen becomes much, much more debatable. Ultimately it’ll still come down to how Robinson bounces back, and whether Ross is any sort of success, but they go from needing to find two top five receivers to maybe one top 10 receiver and a solid WR2. The 4th round pick in this trade I’ve mostly ignored so far, but for posterity’s sake it was spent on Braxton Miller, so it deserved to be ignored.

As a result then I’d say that while the Champions / Brees part of the trade is fairly even (with the Brees having the better potential to come out on top), the Brees are very much on the downside of the overall trade, swapping a defensive player who out-performs even the top receivers (for less money) for a player who isn’t a top receiver. While keeping to the cap doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Brees management as yet and maybe ameliorates some of that downside, it does still limit their ability to compete for the top free agents, or extend some useful players. It’s also fair to say that both the Brees and Champions GMs should feel more than a little bit rueful, as in both cases they had a chance to get both Shepherd and Thomas with those 1.05 and 1.06 picks and both teams would be in a better position if they’d just stopped after the first trade and used the picks they’d garnered.

 

Addendum There’s two teams not included in this write-up at all. That’s nothing against those teams, it’s just that I mostly found their trades fell into the ‘player-heavy’ category or the two picks for two picks category. The Dungeoneers did get a mention in one of the write-ups and pulled off some nice business, fleecing the Firebirds into giving up anything for Ryan Tannehill, the Bombermen into giving up good players for bad ones in the Carlos Hyde trade and getting the 1.02 pick for fat Eddie Lacy which they used on Amari Cooper (then wasted their own 1.03 on Kevin White, so that feels like a push to me). While that seems like a list of wins, they also overpaid the Brees for Keenan Allen’s one game a year and got absolutely destroyed by Kelkowski (the other team not mentioned) when they traded away Doug Baldwin for Stevie Johnson (oops). Kelkowski’s trades are mostly terribly dull and involve buying or selling expiring contracts at the trade deadline for 6th and 7th round picks.

Pre-Draft Win-Win Trades

10 Win-Win Pre-Draft Trades

With around 6 weeks to go before the DynaBowl Rookie draft it’s time to do a little fantasy deck-shuffling. I’m going to suggest 10 trades, one centred on each team, that should be a win for both sides and make sense moving into the 2016 season, and I’m going to start with…

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Needs: Players, picks.

This roster is slowly coming together, with a diligent job being done by GM Pete Conaghan, but it could still use some strengthening across the roster. I wouldn’t be looking to gain any players over 27 years of age, really, and picks would be a bonus. There’s no real bell-cow running back option so that would be ideal, but not essential.

Expendable: Anyone 28 or older, really.

The Trade – Out: Brandon Marshall, WR, ($19, 1 year)

Marshall is 32, and has 1 year left on his reasonable contract. An extension is a prohibitive $74. While he is still producing he’ll only serve to move the Dungeoneers away from the higher picks, when they’re ready to compete he’ll be close to retiring. There is no reason to keep him on the roster. The question is the value. Aging and with only one year left, his value is low so the best they can hope for is a half-decent pick and/or young player.

In: Champions of the Sun give Jay Ajayi, RB ($10/3), 2016 pick 4.10

Contributors can be found in the 4th round, more likely on the defensive side but Matt Jones and Thomas Rawls both went in this range in 2015, while Ajayi is a high ceiling, low floor option. Miami clearly weren’t that keen on him, given their off-season pursuit of CJ Anderson, but he should get a chance this year. He has an injury history too, but he’s the kind of young boom or bust prospect the Dungeoneers could really use. The Champions get a boost in the pursuit of the repeat championship for minimal cost.

Here Comes The Brees

Needs: WR, LB, picks

Reviewing the roster, it’s deeper than I thought it was, with decent options at QB, RB, TE, DT and DE. However, despite the (excellent) purchase of Allen Robinson and the presence of 18 different options, the WRs still lack a little something. After Robinson there’s the declining Fitzgerald, the hobbled Smith, the banned Bryant, and… erm… a lot of mediocrity. No team can be filled with studs but a little more depth would be nice. There’s a bit of a rebuild going on so younger players and/or picks would be a nice return.

Expendable: Most of the wide receivers, anyone who won’t be contributing in 2017.

Out: Devonta Freeman, RB ($8/1)

Given the cap space available, an extension, even if only for a couple of years, should be on the cards, just pull the money forward. However, the management team have indicated that no such thing will happen. Freeman could, of course, be a one season wonder, and an extension could wind up being a millstone, especially if they could get the player back cheaper in 2017 free agency, but if they’re resigned to not competing this year and not signing Freeman to an extension there is no reason not to cash in now.

In: Kelkowski give 2017 3rd round pick (moves to a 2nd round pick if Freeman is a top 5 back or Kelkowski make the DynaBowl)

There’s no WR on this roster that would definitively improve the Brees roster in the longer term and would also make sense for Kelkowski to lose. The trade makes sense for the Brees on two levels – the 2017 draft is supposed to be a deep one, and the price for one year of a player is a good one, and Kelkowski can’t afford to offer Freeman an extension so the Brees know they can have a shot at getting him back in 2017. Meanwhile, Kelkowski get a contributor to their weakened RB corps to round out what is otherwise a pretty competitive line-up.

Tamworth Two

Needs: Cap space, WR, TE, DE, LB

Expendable: Expensive contracts

Tamworth would have been a competitor for Freeman, except they have a pretty decent RB corps already. Instead some WR depth would be nice, and one won’t be picked up in the draft – not one you could expect to contribute immediately anyway as their highest pick is 2.09. Given the money already spent on the roster, though, this is tough. The players with the kind of money they should be looking to save are, at least, the ones with value to the roster – Rodgers, McCoy, Jeffrey, Thomas, Ebron, Keuchley. Of those, the most expendable are McCoy and Ebron…

Out: LeSean McCoy, RB (XX), 2016 pick 4.03

Karlos Williams looked great in year 1 and has something to build on. He poses a real threat to McCoy and Tamworth are keeping him. Freeing up $59 of cap space in 2016 gives Tamworth all sorts of options and losing a player who may or may not be a starter or major contributor is not the worst situation. A deal like this could then pave the way for a trade for Freeman, or any number of other players.

In: DynaForOne Firebirds give 2016 pick 2.05

A bump up in the rounds gives them a chance of picking up a contributor, most likely targeting a WR, with a lower pick focusing on an RB. For the Firebirds, they have the cap space to take a risk on McCoy. They need to do something about their running backs after Lynch retired in the off-season and where CJ Anderson is the only guaranteed starter in 2016. McCoy is a risk but dropping down the draft a little is a risk worth taking, when contributors can still be found at that depth. With 3 other picks in the top 15 they can afford to fall down a little considering McCoy’s talent and upside.

[NB This was going to be the 2.02 pick until that got traded and I couldn’t arsed to rework it]

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Needs: Depth, DT, DE

This is a roster which has subtly come good, if only the players can all stay fit. There’s quality at each position, perhaps with the exception of defensive line. The problem is there aren’t too many sellable assets the Sadness would be happy to sell. Byrant and OBJ both have plenty of time left in their careers so a sale now would only be postponing any potential success. Likewise, the young building block RBs might be desired but logically would stay put while the older ones like Blount probably wouldn’t make much, if anything on the market. You might see Brees as saleable but only 10 starting QBs are needed so it’s a crowded market place, he won’t fetch much at all. So, in needing depth and defensive stars, what desirable assets can they afford to sell?

Out: 2016 pick 1.01

Ezekiel Elliot is the likely number one pick but we saw in 2015 that GM Manboob isn’t afraid to sell a high pick if he’s getting good value. This is a draft not awash with offensive talent, but defensive talent is there to be had so more picks a little lower down the draft might make sense on that front. Likewise, a high number of picks in the top 25 increase the odds of hitting with one of them.

In: Dynasore Losers give 2016 pick 1.04, Donte Moncrief, WR ($2/1), 2016 pick 3.09

With two ageing running backs and little beyond that, the Losers are desperate for a young elite RB option and shouldn’t be afraid to spend to get one. Moncrief has potential and may turn into something but at the moment is still a prospect. He won’t become elite but he should be an adequate WR3/4. The Losers would be reluctant to give him up but with Elliot as the prize they should be prepared to make the sacrifice. The two picks give the Sadness further ammunition to restock in the draft.

Dynasore Losers

Needs: Youth

Expendable: Age

Adrian Peterson. Matt Forte. Jordy Nelson. These are the three best offensive weapons on the Losers roster, and they also have free agent James Jones and retiree Percy Harvin in there. The Losers may already have done the best trade they can do in bringing in Jarvis Landry, exactly the kind of player they need on the roster. The problem is they need to do it another 3 or 4 times.

Out: Adrian Peterson, RB ($35/1)

The Sadness trade above suggests one way they could go, selling some assets to get the best player in the 2016 draft. The alternative is to try to gather as many picks as possible and refresh the talent pool, and the best way to do that will be to sell the aging players off. All three mentioned before are on good deals, with 1, 2 and 3 years left respectively of lower than contract average value. Nelson would probably be the herdest sell due to his return from injury. No one knows if he can be the player he was before it and, at this stage, we don’t know if the Packers will be trying to replace him in the draft. Peterson seems like the obvious sell – he has one year left and is unlikely to be renewed due to his value (by the Losers or any prospective owner) so could be re-won in free agency next year. Why not try to make a profit on him now? The argument against is if Losers GM David Slater believes he can have one last hurrah and win it all before he goes into a full rebuild.

In: Kelkowski give 2017 2nd round pick

Basically the same reasoning stands as for the proposed Devonta Freeman move detailed earlier. The pick is an outright 2nd rather than conditional because Peterson has a far longer history of success. The Losers could, instead, push for Kelkowski’s 2nd round pick in this year’s draft in order to replace Peterson immediately, but in a weaker class they would probably prefer to wait a year for stronger options. Weakening performance in 2016 would also have the potential to push for the number 1 pick in 2017 which would open up some elite options.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Needs: RB, WR, depth

We’ve already discussed how short the Firebirds are at running back, with Lynch’s actual retirement and Gore effectively retired. Ryan Mathews could be in a good spot in Philly now they’ve moved up in the draft (unless they moved up to guarantee they get Elliot), but they could still use a little something more. Likewise, Julio is clearly an elite WR but Sanu is more risky now he’s outside of Cincy, while players like Snead, DGB and Edelman are probably WR3s at best. They have 2 first rounders this year with which to start the restock, but could use some further depth.

Expendable: Everyone?

Out: Julio Jones, WR ($60/3)

OK, so here’s the contentious one. Well, the really contentious one. I needed a blockbuster in this article and here it is – recommending a team sell its best asset. It’s a massive risk, I don’t deny it, and it relies on confidence in the scouting to turn the return into something worthwhile, so how is it justifiable?

The Firebirds have the fewest running backs and wide receivers rostered in the league. And that’s before you factor in that Lynch and Colston are no longer playing. They need to restock. They’re an injury away from not being capable of submitting a valid lineup. Well, a fit lineup. Good job there aren’t injuries in the NFL. Now obviously there will be roster cuts from other teams but stocking up with the dregs aren’t really going to help them. My suggestion is to maximise the return from their best player. He will never be more valuable, and he’s had a few injury concerns in the past. The worst thing that could happen to the Firebirds is keeping Jones and then losing him to injury halfway through the year, destroying both his value to the team and on the trade market.

Instead, cash-in now and rebuild this team. We’ll discuss a fair return for one of the top 3 WRs in the league below.

In: Here Comes The Brees give 2016 pick 3.05, 2 x 2017 1st round picks, 2017 2nd round pick, Isaiah Crowell, RB ($40 total over 4 years), Phillip Dorsett, WR ($21 total over 3 years), Martavis Bryant, WR ($12 total over 3 years),

Firstly, why do the Brees do this? To get one of the best players in the league and become the favourite for the DynaBowl title in 2016 and beyond. Pairing Julio and Allen Robinson together, along with their other offensive weapons makes this team an offensive juggernaut. The question is only how much they have to pay.

2017 is supposed to be a great class, but there are no guarantees so losing both the first round picks they have for a player of Julio’s class is a no brainer. I’m projecting those 1sts to both be lower in the round so a 2nd goes along with it. Alternatively the Firebirds might want to try to get a conditional 2018 first based on where those 17s fall in the draft.

As for players – I would allow the Firebirds to have any offensive players on the roster outside of Luck, Robinson, Lee, Miller, Freeman, Martin, Eifert and Ertz. And perhaps Jackson, but if he was what it took to do this deal I’d give him up. I’ve bundled those together that I think would help the Firebirds most – Dorsett, Bryant and Crowell. They’re all players with question marks next to them – Dorsett and Crowell based on talent and usage, Bryant because of his drug suspensions – but there’s a chance they could net a decent return. The real prize, though, is the picks, which will give GM Neil Hawke the chance to rebuild this roster over the next two years.

Dynablaster Bombermen

Needs: LB, DE, eliteness

No single position leaps out on this roster as being required, but no single position makes you think “They’ve got that locked down, not need to worry about that”. A feeling which starts at QB, where 6 are currently rostered but none feel like a guarantee. Having already traded for Aaron Donald, there’s not really the collateral to deal for another elite player to lift one of the units up a level. Likewise, the weakest units (that aren’t wholly governed by the randomness of interceptions and forced fumbles) are the DE and LB groups and no one is going to sell one of the kind of quality required to pump these units up to the next level. Instead, trying to get some mid-to-late round picks to bolster the defense in the hopes of hitting a home run should be the order of the day.

Expendable: Fringe players

Out: Bilal Powell, RB ($1, 2 years), James White, RB ($1/2)

Both have the potential to score a decent amount of points if they get a chance due to injury but neither is the main guy. Powell has the greater chance to do something as he’s likely to share time with  Forte. They’re both nice options to have, but are surely more suited to the team with the primary backs…

In: Dynasore Losers give 2016 pick 5.04, conditional 2017 5th round pick should either player score 100 points in 2016

Fortunately the Losers have both the primary backs in Forte and Lewis so could grab both for a low pick. Useful insurance policies for sure and if nothing comes of either of them it’s not a huge amount to have given up.

Champions of the Sun

Needs: What do you get for the team that has Trent Richardson? Seriously though, he’d probably just like more depth.

I’m on record as not being a fan of the Allen Robinson trade so, ideally, he’d just undo that, but otherwise the reigning champions are stacked and should look to consolidate their position in any way they can. Other teams may be reticent to deal but there’s one deal which jumps out to me.

Out: 2016 picks 1.05, 1.10

In: DynaForOne Firebirds give 2016 pick 1.02

If the Champions like the look of one player in particular, why not try to move up and grab him. Assuming Elliot is the number 1 pick this would allow the Champions to take whichever WR they prefer. In exchange, the Firebirds end up with 3 picks in the top 10 giving them a greater chance of finding a hit or two on whom to base the future of the franchise. Sure, they don’t get their choice of the top WRs, but that probably shouldn’t be their aim. The two teams are at opposite ends of the spectrum – the Champions can afford to fall for one guy, take him and risk a bust. The Firebirds need a hit or two so more choices is better.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Needs: More time and attention in this analysis, RB, TE, DT

Expendable: Yes

Look, the NFL draft is rapidly arriving and this should really go up before then so this ‘analysis’ is pretty weak from here on out. What’s that you say? It’s only weak from here? Fuck you, buddy, did you pay for this content?

Now go look at the Brees’ and Losers suggested trades and pick one of those you like. That’s what Kelkowski should do.

Alternatively, here are some other options: Get Antonio Andrews from the Bombermen for a 6th round pick. DeMarco “Darren Anderton” Murray was known as an injury waiting to happen until his annus mirabilis at Dallas. Now he’s back behind a pretty terrible offensive line, best to get some insurance.

Sorry, I’ve done them a bit of a disservice here, but they have already been mentioned in those 2 other trades. Give me a break. I don’t see you writing a draft preview, do I?

Dyna Hard

Needs: DT (they have 1!), a player who knows how to win in the playoffs?

Expendable: Look, I’ve been trying to say who’s expendable throughout this, but the truth is, any player is expendable for the right price. Who would they actively want rid of though? Jamaal Charles before he breaks down completely (and to save some money), and they have good enough WRs to be able to afford to lose one, if they’re generating greater quality.

Seriously though, I’m going to try to piece together a good trade here, if only because the Hard men haven’t been mentioned yet, unlike those harlots Kelkowski.

Out: Tavon Austin, WR ($16/1), Tyler Lockett, WR ($3/2), 2016 pick 1.08, 2017 1st round pick, 2017 4th round pick

In: Julio Jones, WR ($60/3)

OK, so this is a do-over from earlier, but actually it makes a lot of sense. The Firebirds get 2 young WRs who could prove to be very good players, along with 3 picks, while the Hards end up with Antonio Brown, TY Hilton and Julio Jones to try and get over that final hurdle of … well, a playoff win. The picks aren’t as good as those offered by the Brees, but then the players are arguably better.

Dyna Hard have a good roster that’s not crying out for young players to develop, they’re looking for the missing piece that will put them over the top. The Firebirds have been discussed a lot already, but these would be more useful building blocks.

On the Matter of the Trade of Demaryius Thomas

Facts:

Demaryius Thomas was traded from the DynaForOne Firebirds to the Tamworth Two on deadline day for Willie Snead, a 2016 1st, a 2017 2nd and a conditional 2018 3rd. The trade was processed at 7:54pm. The deadline is 8pm. The commissioner was otherwise indisposed at this time.

Iit was noted in the main NFL huddle that, according to the rules, picks may not be traded more than 2 drafts in advance. The commissioner, upon being notified of the issue at 10pm, stated to the two teams involved that he was happy for the final detail to be worked out and the trade to stand.

Formal complaints have been raised by two GMs who consider that the trade should not stand as an agreed legal deal was not in place by the deadline. Other GMs have a more ‘shades of grey’ opinion. Given the formal complaints raised, the Commissioner agreed to review the situation.

Review:

I came to a decision on my ruling yesterday and wrote up a formal response. Much more formal than this. I wanted to sit on it and weigh up whether I was making the correct decision or not before I posted it though. Upon reviewing what I had written, I felt I couldn’t stick with it and changed my mind. My words here might not be as thought through as in that original decision, and they come from a slightly different place. Please bear with me. I hope I can explain myself and the ruling adequately.

In reviewing this case I have to concede that the complainants are correct. The trade is not valid according to the rules on the website. The trade was not 100% completed by 8pm on the deadline day as the final, smallest element of the package was technically illegal. That said, the rules for trades are out of date. They allude to commissioner review of all trades before they are put through – a function which was removed after the first season. The rules suggest that all trades are signed off on the forums, and insist that all trades with conditional picks are signed off in this manner by both teams. In the past, teams have not been held to these standards. In addition, in the course of this discussion we all agreed that the rule for preventing picks from being traded more than 2 drafts away was a bad rule and should be removed.

I don’t think any league member would deny that the published rules on the website are out of date. They do not reflect rule changes agreed by the league and they are certainly not strictly followed. They rules were written prior to the league starting and have, on numerous occasions, been found wanting. I take responsibility for this, but I think we can all acknowledge that to get the rules spot on the first time, with no experience of dynasty, let alone salary cap dynasty, was nigh on impossible.

At no point during the League’s existence have we viewed the rules as black and white due to their inadequacies and our ongoing development of understanding of how our league works and how the rules relate to it. There have been countless times when rules have been bent because it was common sense. Nonetheless, I have to come back to the fact that the complainants are correct, allowing the trade is technically a breach of the rules.

However, there are other issues at stake here that need to be factored into the decision. As has been pointed out in the hangouts, where does the leniency end? Somebody stop the leniency! The League has been very lenient over myriad issues, and thus far I am positive everyone has benefitted at some point. And being lenient in this or other cases doesn’t mean people can get away with anything. That’s getting a little too close to a “if you allow gay marriage then that means beastiality is OK” kind of nonsense. I think we can all apply a degree of common sense and agree that one example of leniency doesn’t mean anything goes.

What is the alternative? When I initially wrote up my decision I decided to revoke the trade because, by the letter of the law, it was in breach. My decision went into the consequences of this and I did not like what I saw. The League becoming a police state. Every rule having to be adhered to precisely and my role of Commissioner having to come down hard on all minor breaches. Of course, this is as ridiculous as the anarchy vision of the future presented by leniency. And yet, it allowed for any minor breach to be pointed out and argued over and require a ruling. This process genuinely makes me miserable. I have not enjoyed having to make a decision on this or any other matter. I have not enjoyed the discussion. And I completely acknowledge that in that past I have been a ring leader in this kind of stuff. After a previous ‘discussion’ I looked into the mirror, I looked over the precipice, I didn’t like what I saw. If that leaves me inadequate to run a fantasy dynasty league, then so be it.

So what this ultimately came down to to me is what do I want this league to be? I have said previously that I believe my role as commissioner is to sit back and interfere as little as possible. I should just make sure the league runs by the rules. Theoretically this means that I should revoke the trade. However, my view has changed a little recently. This is a complex league and will need a guiding hand and it is the commissioner’s role to be that guiding hand. By my hand, I shape the league. The league is, in some respects, a reflection of me, or what I want to see in the world.

So how do I see the world? I don’t agree with every rule that’s out there, and I want people to see and evaluate all the circumstances that surround events and apply common sense. And I want people to generally be cheerful and have fun. I want our league to be fun, and if our league stops being fun, then I’m out. There are times when that point comes close. Some of those points I have entirely been at fault for. Probably more often than any other league member. Sometimes I get worked up about issues merely because I care about the league and want it to work. I want it to be perfect. But it can’t be perfect, nothing can. But it can be fun.

So I want to apply common sense to the league in matters of dispute. I want to take a step back and evaluate what is sensible, not what is “legal”. I want everyone to obey the spirit of the law, not the letter of the law. So, if we’re applying common sense here, what is the common sense ruling?

Let’s say the trade gets processed at 6:54, not 7:54. The issue is flagged and Neil and James resolve it, amending the terms of the deal by 7:45. Here is my question for you – what is different from this happening slightly after the 8pm deadline? Literally what is different in the league? Nothing.

Does that mean I should be allowed to do a trade now? No – the deadline was on Thursday.
But the deadline was 8pm and this was sorted out just after 8pm… Well, the deal went through before 8pm and they two teams made an honest mistake.
But a mistake nonetheless – one that means the trade isn’t valid… Was there an effort made to cheat the league? Was there ill intent in this deal? Aren’t all of us friends trying to have some fun before the sweet release of death?
Come on! OK – you want to go with the rules… for a trade to be reviewed by the commissioner, at least 3 league members need to protest the trade and only 2 have made formal protests, so none of this post exists and the trade can go through with the original terms (including the 2018 conditional pick).

Look – I get where the complaints come from, but nothing was done maliciously and the difference between them doing things correctly in time and making a minor corrective arrangement outside of the time limit is literally nothing. The results on the website are the same, the line-ups are the same, it changes nothing.

The common sense ruling is the one I made initially – the trade goes through and the amended conditional term is:

If DT finishes in the top 10 in 2016 across 16 weeks TT will give their 2017 3rd and 6th round picks and DFO will give their 5th.
If DT finishes outside the top 25 in 2016 DFO will give their 2017 6th
If DT finishes between 11 and 25 no further picks will change hands.

Guest Previews 2015 – The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness by Max Cubberley

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

2014 Record: 5-8, last place in Peter, 9th in points for, last in potential points, 9th in all play, improved to 7th in the loser ladder

Off-season Review

It really was a back and forth battle all last season. One week one team had the edge, the next week it was the other team. Both sets of players, and their GMs, put in a monumental effort to outdo the other in a contest that had the rest of us on the edges of our seats but ultimately only one team could finish bottom of Peter and the Sadness just pipped the Dungeoneers to the post. Regardless of that, Geoffrey Manboob went into the off-season knowing he had a big job on his hands.

Unfortunately the Peach Shadow seemed to take that literally and went for quantity rather than quality in free agency with 23 players joining up for a gruelling evaluation process in training camp, the most notable names including Darrelle Revis and Brandon LaFell. Of those 23 not many survived. Josh Hill adds a splash of potential at TE and Bruce Irvin and Damontre Moore may turn into solid additions but, overall, free agency has all the colour and movement of a candy floss machine with all the attendant substance. At least they didn’t lose anyone significant with Riley Cooper, Justin Smith and Greg Jennings the only notable names to be cut or released.

Heading into the draft, the Sadness did not look any stronger than last season but if MANGBOOB disappointed in free agency he showed his nous in the cut-throat, split-second world of dynasty drafting. The haul of young talent wasn’t particularly exciting with Ameer Abdullah, Matt Jones and Jaelen Strong the three main prospects to emerge but the GM’s manoeuvring also brought Eddy Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Sheldon Richardson and Markus Wheaton in. Richardson’s subsequent legal troubles cast something of a pall on that move but in getting Lacy and Osweiler for 1.02, Manboob pulled off the deal of the year, maybe even the decade.

In other trade-related business the Sadness revealed the depth of belief they have in Teddy Tinyhands as a future star QB by trading Cam Newton to the Dungeoneers with Drew Brees coming the other way to smooth the transition for Bridgeater.

Improvement: The Sadness already had one of the strongest WR groups in the league and they come into the new season with an upgrade at QB and a huge one at RB. The sore thumb on the roster is Montee Ball at $49 but even there we could see a happy ending as if the lad goes 4 weeks without a team he can be released with none of that guaranteed salary sticking on the Sadness’ wage bill thanks to being cut by the Broncos. They finished 10th in average offensive points per game last season and they should see a huge improvement there in the new season.

Regression: When I say that there are no areas of the Sadness that look weaker you shouldn’t read too much into that. It would have been harder for some areas of the team to get weaker. The defence is largely untouched from the unit that averaged the 9th lowest score last season and it would take a lot of squinting to see how it would improve on that with the group of players there. The Sadness focused on improving the offence in the off-season and will be hoping that will cover the defensive deficiencies for a year.

Prediction: I don’t necessarily see too much of an improvement in standings for the Sadness and think they could well finish 5-8 or maybe 6-7 again, being towards the bottom end of Peter. What I do expect is for them to be competitive in most games and bridge a lot of the gap that existed between them and the Dungeoneers and the rest of the league.