Category: League Business

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 2

For this week’s Stat Blat I thought I’d take the subject of my week 2 Stat Blat from last season and expand it.  In Week 2 of the 2015 season I looked at the average points from 2014 and 2015 through two weeks to looks for early indicators of squad improvement and design, as well as looking at potential points on average to see what impact GM selection was having.  I’ll be doing a similar idea this week.  For those of you who might claim I’m only doing this again so I don’t have to think of a new thing to look at, you’re quite right.

Reality Bites

Below is a table of comparisons for average points in weeks 1-2 of 2014, 2015 and 2016, ordered by 2015 finishing order.

Team Name 2015 Standing 2014 Wk2 2015 Wk2 2016 Wk2 POA Diff
Champions 11-2 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (192 poa) 1-1 (216 poa) +11/+24
Tamworth 2 7-6 2-0 (185 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 0-2 (184 poa) -18/+17
Dyna Hard 10-3 0-2 (168 poa) 2-0 (223 poa) 0-2 (176 poa) +55/-47
Kelkowski 6-7 2-0 (212 poa) 0-2 (153 poa) 1-1 (160 poa) -59/+7
Bombermen 6-7 0-2 (168 poa) 0-2 (156 poa) 2-0 (224 poa) -12/+68
Sadness 4-9 0-2 (129 poa) 0-2 (154 poa) 1-1 (174 poa) +25/+20
Losers 6-7 2-0 (175 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 1-1 (190 poa) -3/+23
Dungeoneers 5-8 1-1 (161 poa) 2-0 (158 poa) 1-1 (171 poa) -3/+13
Breeses 6-7 1-1 (146 poa) 0-2 (152 poa) 1-1 (191 poa) +6/+39
Firebirds 4-9 1-1 (137 poa) 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (206 poa) +44/+25

 

The obvious story on the positive side is the Dynablaster Bombermen.  After a disappointing 2015 they’ve come out gangbusters in 2016 with a massive 68 point average performance jump from 2015.  A big part of that has to be their receivers with Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews all in their 3rd years now and established as the number 1 options on their team.

Behind the B-men there are a cluster of teams showing significant improvement in the 20s range.  The Firebirds have started stronger each year of the Dbowl so far and have been propelled to a 2-0 start by the surprising strength of their defence, averaging 112 points per game, the best in the league.  The Dynasore Losers have also improved on 2015 and have had their strongest start yet, despite being 1-1.  Offensive improvement is key here as the team is averaging 15 points more on offence through 2 games then they did in 2015, much of it contributable to a shift to Carson Palmer at QB and Matt Forte’s huge workload in New York.

The Sadness have shown steady improvement now for two years but when you consider that they still only averaged 174 points this year so far then it’s clear that this is just the continuing story of a team struggling towards mediocrity after an awful initial draft.  Still, improvement is improvement and the team is young.  If they jump 20 points again next year they could find themselves 2-0.  Lastly, the Champions (in every sense of the word) may be 1-1 but have shown improvement again this year.  This may not be a sign that they are in for another dominant year though as they actually started slowly last season.  The second highest average points scored shows that they are still a force to be reckoned with though.

On the other hand, you have to look at Chris Braithwaite’s Dyna Hard With A Vengeance and wonder what went wrong.  They were hugely improved last season but seem to have lost all of that positive gain this year, losing 47 points on average.  As I highlighted in my preview, the running backs are a problem with none of them averaging over 10 points a game but the WRs are struggling too.  Only Antonio Brown is over 20 total points, none of the rest are even close.  The offence is averaging less than 100 points a game.  Only the Firebirds are worse and, unlike Neil’s team, Chris’ defence is not firing on all cylinders.

Interestingly, Chris is the only team to be averaging less points than this time last year.  Every other team is showing improvement.  This doesn’t seem to be a result of scoring changes as it’s actually the offences that are scoring higher than last year’s averages, rather than the defences.  Teams as a whole are averaging 189 points compared to 184 from last season.  Maybe we’re all just getting better at this shit?

Is It Indicative?

Is there really any point to this?  Does performance in the first two weeks of the season actually tell you anything about how a team will do that season?  Below is each team’s Week 2 Average and Season Average.

Team Name 2015 Wk2 Wk2 Rk 2015 Season Season Rk POA Diff
Champions 2-0 (192 poa) 2nd 11-2 (217 poa) 1st +25
Tamworth 2 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 7-6 (189 poa) 3rd +22
Dyna Hard 2-0 (223 poa) 1st 10-3 (199 poa) 2nd -24
Kelkowski 0-2 (153 poa) 9th 6-7 (189 poa) 3rd +36
Bombermen 0-2 (156 poa) 7th 6-7 (183 poa) 4th +27
Sadness 0-2 (154 poa) 8th 4-9 (179 poa) 5th +25
Losers 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 6-7 (176 poa) 7th +9
Dungeoneers 2-0 (158 poa) 6th 5-8 (168 poa) 9th +10
Breeses 0-2 (152 poa) 10th 6-7 (171 poa) 8th +19
Firebirds 1-1 (181 poa) 3rd 4-9 (178 poa) 6th -3

 

The thing that jumps out to me straight away is the reasonably consistent rate of improvement for teams.  5 of the 10 teams improved by 19 to 27 points over the course of the season on average.  This, presumably, is down to a combination of waiver wire pickups and starting lineup adjustment as the stars stashed on your bench in week 1 and 2 start to show.  The biggest risers were Kelkowski.  Looking at their lineups it’s noticeable that players like Blake Bortles, Brandon Marshall (LB), Reggie Nelson and Kwon Alexander weren’t in the starting lineup in week 1 and other big performers like Spencer Ware and Malik Jackson weren’t even on the squad yet.

To me it seems telling that the only team to lose average points (who didn’t start out abnormally hot like DynaHarder) was the Firebirds.  Neil only added 8 players through blind-bid waivers last season.  The four teams who added the most players?  Champions of the Sun (42), DynaHarder (40), Tamworth Two (30) and Kelkowski (28), i.e. the four teams in the playoffs at the end of the season.  Obviously there is a lot more to being successful in the Dynabowl than constantly churning through waiver wire additions but there’s no denying that the right pickups can have a huge effect and, just like the draft, the more tickets you buy to the lottery the more chance you have to come away with a Josh Norman, a Spencer Ware, an Allen Hurns, a Whitney Mercilus or a Willie Snead.

As far as the question of whether week 2 results are indicative or not is concerned, no team except Kelkowski moved more than 3 positions from their Week 2 Ranking to their Season Ranking.  You can improve in your score in the early weeks for sure but the best/luckiest GMs will also be improving so your ability to make up ground on those people is limited.  However, it is definitely possible to stagnate and not improve over the season.  Everyone around you will be getting better and their scores will be getting higher.  You need to do everything you can, whether that’s waiver wire additions, trades or rotating in from your bench wisely, to improve with them.

Weekly Stats

Here are your weekly averages for week 2.

Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?
Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?

Weekly Peter vs Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 181.86 vs Tim (average) 196.53. Tim leads (margin 14.67)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 1

The first week of the NFL season is all about overreaction and the jerking of knees.  To honour that I will be looking at everyone’s opening week performances and drawing some wild conclusions about what it means for the season ahead.  In the absence of enough data to actually draw any real conclusions that’ll just have to do for you.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Hot Take: Keenan Allen is broken!  Quincy Enunwa is the new Brandon Marshall!  Carson Palmer’s about to go full Peter!  I remembered Kevin White plays for the Bears!  Coby Fleener didn’t get Drew Brees a birthday cake!  That’s right, my wild conclusion for Pete’s Dungeoneers is that their receiver group that looked so good on paper in pre-season is actually a stinking turd.  “But Maxuell,” I hear you cry, “The Dungeoneers scored 6.38 points per receiver, which was bad, but the Firebirds were worse at 5.94 points per receiver!”  It’s true, the Dungeoneers were only the second worst team on a points per starter basis this week but the Birds had 7.4 per player on the bench and the Dungeoneers had 5.4.

Srsly? Yes.  Allen is really done and the Bears’ offence looks pretty dire.  Fleener’s situation does not look good either and Pete’s backup TEs don’t look great.  Obviously it’s not as bad as all that.  Cooper is still a stud and Marshall and Floyd will get theirs but I had high hopes for this group that look like they won’t be borne out.

Here Comes The Brees

Hot Take: The Breeses are the best team in Peter (not saying much, I know, see below).  Andrew Luck is back to his gunslingin’ best and even in a week where Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller didn’t get into top gear the Breeses’ offence still averaged 11.57 points per starter, good for 2nd in the league.  The defence was in the bottom half of the league as you’d imagine but this team has the raw power to bludgeon other teams to death with the power of their attacking options.

Srsly? Yes.  The Breeses and the Sadness were the best two teams in Peter this week by a comfortable margin.  Looking at the rosters of the 5 teams there’s no doubt that the Brees have the edge in offensive power so as long as their defence can maintain its position of slightly below mediocre then they should be good to go.

Tamworth Two

Hot Take: Tamworth Two will be picking at #1 in the 2017 rookie draft.  T2’s starters in week 1 were uninspiring.  I mean, they’re rolling out 52 year-old Anquan Boldin at WR and a Cleveland RB.  Things look better on the defensive side of the ball but the nerfing of big plays brings the ceiling down on their elite DTs and it’s not hard to see everyone else except Kuechly and Jones hanging T2 out to dry.  This team is very average rather than bad but everyone else has upped their game and Mat are getting left in the dirt.

Srsly? No.  Everything’s very close in Peter to my mind so it’s not impossible but I think T2 have enough quality and Mat and James are good enough GMs that they won’t finish bottom.  Although they have Slatz’ first round pick so they may still end up with the #1 pick in the rookie draft…

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Hot Take: Teddy Tinyhands’ injury will lead the Sadness to the playoffs.  We all know Michael likes to tinker.  He’s never happy with his lineups and his choices and he’s always going backwards and forwards.  This often leads to him getting too clever on his choices and overthinking them.  For that reason, Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury was a very good thing for the Sadness.  Drew Brees is a consistent, top of the line fantasy QB and he was on the bench for the Sadness last season.  Now, unless Mangboob develops inexplicable Brockules man-love, Brees will be starting every game he’s available for and the Sadness will be better for it.  Perhaps the hotter take here is that I think the Detroit RBs will pave the way for a playoff appearance but both Abdullah and Riddick looked great and Mangboob could start both of them in a week and still be confident of results.

Srsly? No.  The Colts looked monumentally bad on Defence in the game against the Lions and Riddick and Abdullah will not get that open that often against many teams.  On the Brees front, I trust him, I just don’t trust Mike.  It’s a three way QBBC with Brockules and Goff when he starts.  Don’t ask me how it makes any sense, I don’t get it either.

Dynasore Losers

Hot Take: The Losers should be in re-building mode.  Look, they low-scored this week, they were third bottom in points scored last season and bottom in potential points.  Their running back corps consists of two 30+ year-old guys and a random assortment of limbs.  His defence looks like it was assembled by accident.  It’s time to get over that deep-seated tradeophobia, ship out some of the top talent and stack picks for the next couple of drafts.  Re-building around Moncrief, Landry and that stable of young QBs is the way forward for the Losers and week 1 proved it.

Srsly? Yes.  The team lacks youth and depth and you’re relying on a very high hit rate in the draft to get out of that if you don’t sell assets and stack picks up.  Free Agency should improve in quality over the next few years so it’s not impossible to rebuild that way but if Slater looked to sell the likes of Wilkerson, Forte and Sanders he could go into the 2017 draft with 10+ good picks and maybe even get back into the first round.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Hot Take: The Firebirds will make it to the Owl again.  A week 1 victory against the reigning champs?  Check.  A monster defensive performance?  Check.  The renaissance of CJ Anderson?  Check.  A dominant offence?  Ch… wait.  Oh.  Lowest scoring offence this week, you say?  Only 5.94 points per starting receiver, you say?  Second worst QB performance after Kirk Cousins, you say?  Oh.  Look, the fact that Neil’s boys put up nearly 200 points and won their matchup despite a poor offensive performance is exactly why I’m backing them.  You think Snead will be on the bench next week?  You forget that the Seahawks offence often starts slow?  Geno Atkins and Ndamukong Suh won’t put up over 40 points every week but they won’t need to.  I can see this team going places.

Srsly? No.  Of course not.  Neil will probably trade away all of his good players for a second tier DE and a 5th round pick.

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

Hot Take: Braithwaite’s boys will be held back by weak running backs.  So, Gurley is a bust right?  OK, that may be an over-reaction but when the opposing defence can put ten players within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st and 10 because they know your QB can’t throw it further than that you’re going to be really up against it.  Apart from Gurley Chris is calling on Jamaal Charles (not healthy and coming back to a backfield dominated by Spencer Ware) and Jeremy Langford (just shit and only scoring points because there’s no-one better there yet) to do the business.  The rest of his RBs are long-shot rookies or backups and this could get ugly.  In week 1 they averaged 7.87 points per starter and 2.13 per player left on the bench (of which Shaun Draughn was the top scorer with his 16 yards and 1 vultured TD).  Gurley will have his big weeks but I don’t like any of the rest of these guys to produce consistently.

Srsly? Yes.  The hot take is harsh on Charles who isn’t the kind of player you don’t give a role to when healthy but I do think there will still be a big role for Ware all season long and that caps his ceiling.  Jeremy Langford’s best case scenario is that he keeps the job and continues to churn away his 3-3.5 YPC but any week he doesn’t get in the end zone is likely to be a low scorer.  Chris doesn’t have the TEs to only play 2 TEs and his best bet might be to hope for an injury to Rawls or Ryan Matthews to get Christine Michael or Kenjon Barner involved.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Hot Take: Kelkowski have one of the top three defences in the league.  3.58 per starter at DT/DE (7th in the league), 4.06 at CB (worst in the league) and 53.50 points total on defence (worst in the league).  Those stats should tell you everything you need to know to backup the point right?  Look, no-one’s going to pretend this defensive performance from Kelkowski wasn’t disappointing.  I imagine the men (man?) themselves had something to say to their players after the game but the reality is that the majority of this bad performance was down to a low-scoring secondary and a donut from Malik Jackson.  Every secondary in the league can have bad games, the position is very fickle, and Kelkowski have a good group full of potential.  Malik Jackson will start to rack up the points once he adjust fully to playing in Jacksonville and they still have one of the strongest groups of LBs in the league.  They’ll be fine.

Srsly? Yes.  This really is a very talented bunch who just had an off day.  Kelkowski were good in 2014, they were good again in 2015 and they’ll be good again this year.  Someone over there (presumably Ian because it’s almost certainly not Jay) knows what they’re doing.

Champions of the Sun

Hot Take: The Champions of the Sun will go from first to worst in Tim.  It was only a freakish performance from Ben Roethlisberger and DeAngelo Williams that even made this week 1 matchup with the Firebirds respectable.  The Champions scored ok on offence (largely due to the two already mentioned) but their much vaunted defence of last season did not show up at all.  Their 63.18 points was good for 8th worst and the main problem was upfront where their line scored a measly 1.75 points per player.  There was an average of 6.83 points per player on the bench but whether Cubberley has the nous to pick the right players week-on-week is seriously up for debate.

Srsly? Of course not, I’m a hustler baby.  Here comes Owl number 2!

Dynablaster Bombermen

Hot Take: Week 1 was a flash in the pan and the Bombermen will slide back to the pack and miss the playoffs.  The Bombermen were the best team by a country mile in week 1 with a whopping 13.72 points per player on offence (best in the league).  Their receivers racked up 85.8 points, only just missing out on the top 5 receiving performances of all time in the league.  So am I a crazy person?  That all depends on whether you think Melvin Gordon is going to get 2 TDs per fame when the Chargers are always playing catchup.  Or on whether you think Ryan Shazier (questionable for the weekend with a knee injury, again) can play regularly.  Or on whether you think Jordan Matthews is breaking out or if you think he was just up against the Browns.  There are obviously stars on this team (AJ Green, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, Greg Olsen) but I think week 1 was just right place, right time, their QBs are terrible and this kind of performance won’t be repeated every week.

Srsly? No.  Did you see the list of players I wrote down as the stars on the team?!  I even left some out.  The Bombermen are stacked.  They were many people’s favourites to win the Owl in 2015 and week 1 establishes them among the favourites to win it this year.


Weekly Stats

If I remember, I’ll post up a picture of the year’s average stats here when I do a blat.

Nothin' but the stats, ma'am.
Nothin’ but the stats, ma’am.

 


Weekly Peter vs Tim-watch: For two seasons now, Peter has been the Wallace Shawn to Tim’s Andre the Giant but could the tide be turning?  Every Stat Blat I will take a couple of lines to compare Peter vs Tim so we can all keep an eye on the situation.

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim.

Not A Mock Draft – The Defensive Line

Me again. Due to popular indifference I’ve decided to get of de fence and give the defence a go. We’ll see how this goes and whether I can be arsed with linebackers or the secondary.

Joey Bosa – DE 5th Round – It’s not clear that Bosa is exactly what you want in a fantasy DE. As a general rule, even with the scoring changes, there’s a fairly solid correlation between sacks and total points. William Gholston (47T, 8TFL, 1FF, 3S) is behind both Jacquies Smith (16T, 5TFL, 3FF, 6.5S) and Jurrell Casey (33T, 11TFL, 7S) despite all those extra tackles, for example. Bosa put together a 7.5 and 13.5 sack campaigns in his first two years, but dropped to 5 in his final year due to consistently lining up against double teams. He was still able to work through those for an impressive 16 tackles for a loss, but Bosa lacks the things to really set him apart at the next level – he doesn’t have explosive burst, and there’s no obvious stunts he uses to get by, round or through opponents. He’s a hard worker and a safe, solid pick for the Chargers, but he’s not the next JJ Watt (as some very over-enthusiastic scouting reports have suggested). A lot will depend on how the Chargers use him. He could blossom into a pass rushing OLB type to complement Melvin Ingram, but early indications are he’ll line up at RDE, so more likely he’s the dependable every down DE, lining up on the strong side, who puts up creditable numbers and tickles the bottom quarter of the top 20, without ever hitting the double digit sack totals required for a top 10 position player.

DeForest Buckner – DE7th Round – Not a man you’d want to upset, at 6’7 and 291 lbs – he’s a monster, with scope to get more monstrous – made to play the position. I’m going to assume he’s named after the guy who played Bones in Star Trek (DeForest Kelly), because why not, and I can’t be bother researching the real reason. He has good initial power and burst with long arms and uses his hands well. There’s a lot of room for improvement, but that should come with NFL coaching – his snap anticipation isn’t great, and he doesn’t really chain his moves together, but his college career clearly demonstrates that he’s steadily improving, both in penetrating the backfield and making plays and in terms of general tackling. The major loser here is probably Arik Armstead, as Buckner is both a better prospect and probably more ready to play, but… San Francisco. The 49ers were one of the worst in the league in generating pressure last year, and while you could argue Buckner will therefore get plenty of chances to go after the QB because nobody else on this team does, more likely he’ll often be on an island doing it if he is. Chip Kelly seems to love over-paying corners and safeties to do the pass defending, rather than relying on pressure and pass rush.

Shaw Lawson- DE 3rd Round – Lawson slots straight into what could be a fairly significantly rejigged front 7 in Buffalo, taking over from Mario Williams, who’s gone to suck away the end of his career in Miami – where talent goes to die. Lawson only has one proper season in college as a starter, but what a season. In tandem with Kevin Dodd, he put up a respectable 12.5 sacks and an NCAA leading 24.5 tackles for loss. I make Lawson the best DE prospect for fantasy in this class. He’s in a reasonably good spot compared to Bosa and Buckner, and he’ll be set loose on opposing quarterbacks. He has the physical tools for it too, with good burst and power, and the ability to consistently get a drive on his tackle and make plays, unlike Buckner he’s also a smart football player, who will set and maintain the edge. Some guys rack up numbers against sub-par college tackles, Lawson took Ronnie Stanley (the top drafted tackle in case you forgot) to school in the game against Notre Dame. He’s probably not an elite guy, but he could be a fairly consistent DE1. Unless Rob Ryan really Rob Ryans the shit out of that defence.

Emanuel Ogbah – DE 5th Round – I avoided dinging Corey Coleman “because Cleveland”, and I really want to avoid doing the same for Ogbah, but… Offence is not defence, and Barkevious Mingo was once a highly promising edge rusher before Cleveland Clevelanded him. A two year starter at Oklahoma State, Ogbah put up 19.5 tackles for a loss and 22.5 sacks. And is slated to fill the hole Mingo was once supposed to. He’s a power rusher, ready to be impactful immediately at pro-level, he’s comfortable dropping into coverage too, and he probably ends up an OLB, rather than a DE in Cleveland’s system. He’s seen as a coachable prospect with the build and skills to develop further, but then, Oklahoma State don’t have a good record with players transitioning to the college game… and Cleveland!

Jihad Ward – DE Undrafted – What were they thinking? A question people may have asked of his parents about his name. Or of the Raiders for drafting this monumental turd of a player so high. On one level, I get this – the Raiders needed a bookend rusher to partner Mack (the next best rusher on the team got 4 sacks compared to Mack’s 15) – and Mario Edwards seemed to split time between DE and NT, so he clearly isn’t the answer. But isn’t that why the spunked a load of money at Bruce Irvin? Ward played both inside and outside on the defensive line in college, lining up and catching the eye at RDE in the Senior Bowl and while some might see that flexibility as a bonus, really it’s an indication of his weaknesses. Not big or strong enough to match up inside and lacking the quickness or power to do anything but occupy space on the edge, Ward is a mid to late round project drafted about 3 rounds too early. I like what Oakland have done in the draft in the previous couple of years, but with bad reaches in both rounds one and two, and the unfathomable waste of a pick on Connor Cook, 2016 was a return to the baffling Raiders of old.

Carl Nassib – DEUndrafted – Nassib is a bit of an unknown. I’m not going to throw up the “because Cleveland” excuse to ding him, but it does apply. A walk on at Pitt, who finally earned a starting spot as a redshirt Senior, Nassib broke out and broke school records on his way to being the sack-leader in NCAA football. But, that’s it. He is essentially a one-year wonder, a bit of a fairy tale and the sort of high-upside raffle ticket the Browns seem to have been targeting in this draft. If Nassib doesn’t work it out, it won’t be for a lack of effort. He’s a humble, shy sort who’s worked and earned everything he’s got and more power to him for it. But that’s not necessarily going to be enough. It’d be unfair to compare him to Michael Sam, but it’s reasonable to draw some small comparisons – both are an example of how standout college play may not translate to the NFL – Sam was named Defensive Player of the Year in his conference before the draft and Nassib led all college football in sacks. However, what works in college doesn’t always translate and you need more than one move or effort. Nassib has more to him than Sam, but he’s a long way from an NFL prospect, let alone a fantasy relevant one. His ceiling is probably as part of a defensive rotation, fine for where the Browns picked him.

The Rest – There’s a quick drop off in talent. This wasn’t an exceptional class of pass rushers anyway, at DE or OLB, but in general – fantasy relevant defensive ends are actually going to be few and far between, and the elite at the position tend to stick around (Dunlap, Watt, Wilkerson, Quinn, Ansah aren’t going anywhere soon). There’s probably only two others to consider… Shilique Calhoun (brilliant name – 7th Round) has impressive tape, and merited a better pick than a third rounder, but concerns about the lack of power in his game and his sometimes sloppy play – particularly his tendency to play with his head down and lose in initial contact – dropped him through the rounds. If he improves these elements, he could be the booked DE the Raiders want that Ward clearly isn’t. Might be worth a taxi squad stash. Bronson Kaufusi (another brilliant name – 5th Round) is worth a poke. He inherited the starting role from Ansah at BYU and is clearly a more polished product than Ansah (although without the freakish athletic gifts), with great footwork, drive and speed, and more than a couple of moves in his locker. He lacks flexibility and doesn’t run with much bend and that could be an issue, which is why he’s there in the third round. The Ravens are quite old at pass rusher, and have been looking for a young talent to step up and challenge Suggs and Dumervil. Kaufusi could offer something in that area, if he transitions to OLB.

Defensive tackle is a bit tougher to evaluate, but here we go:

Sheldon Rankins – DT – 6th Round – is a run stuffer who offers pass rush upside. I’d be a lot higher on him if he hadn’t gone to New Orleans to be part of the worst defence in history. Dennis Allen (left in the Airport in London by the Raiders) steps into Rob Ryan’s shoes, and Rankins will be a big part of the improvement New Orleans will hope to see, lining up alongside John Jenkins in the middle. There’s not really enough on the roster (Cameron Jordan Cameron is a one-man show) to force opposing offences into cheating and open up gaps for Rankins to attack, so he could simply be a very good, fantasy irrelevant DT. I’ve got him ranked a little higher than the write-up suggests because he’s the consensus best DT in the class, and if you’re going to pick one, this is probably the guy.

Kenny Clark – DT/NTUndrafted – A classic Nose Tackle. For these guys to be fantasy relevant they have to be absolute monsters, capable of pushing two guys around like Dontari Poe. Don’t bother.

Robert Nkemdiche – DT/DE3rd Round – Stupidly dropped down the draft for stupid reasons. There’s times NFL teams are too risk averse (see his Ole Miss team-mate Laremy Tunsil) and get scared off making decisions which have little or no real risk attached. I love Nkemdiche as both a character and a player, and have no concerns about his transition. He’ll be great – most likely at DE, but he is officially a DT, having played there mostly in college. One note of caution – Arizona’s great defence isn’t all that great and isn’t filled with fantasy relevant players up front.

Vernon Butler – DT Undrafted – It’s not clear where Butler lines up, with Star Lotulei and Kawaan Short both fairly young and a solid inside combination for Carolina. It feels a bit like a BPA pick, rather than one which fits in any particular plan. He’s not clearly a NT, although he did play some passing downs there in college, and with an ability to get upfield and make plays, Butler could end up stealing time from Kawaan Short and hurting the fantasy value of both players.

Chris Jones – DTUndrafted – A bit of a project, Jones flashed all the tools in college, but inconsistently, and didn’t exactly look like he knew what to do with what he had. The Chiefs are obviously set with Poe and Jaye Howard in the middle, and more likely Jones ends up as an inside DE in their 3-4 front, with pass rush as ever coming from Justin Houston and 85-year-old Tamba Hali. Not really worthy of consideration, even as a post-draft pick-up.

Austin Johnson – DTUndrafted – His 6.5 sacks last year in college point to a potential pass-rush upside, but don’t be fooled, Johnson is a run-stuffer first and foremost. He’s going to be playing on a Titans interior that doesn’t do all that much, so wouldn’t expect him to do much either.

A’Shawn Robinson – DT 7th Round – Stick with me here, having shot down three higher picks as not worth drafting, why is Robinson different? Because he’s better, and in a better place. I’m not sure where he lines up for Detroit, he lined up all over for Alabama and was often asked to clog lanes and occupy bodies. If he ends up at NT, forget about it. But if he ends up paired with another NT, he’s in a much better spot than Rankins to get lanes to attack the QB. He doesn’t have explosive burst to collapse or penetrate the pocket and pressure the QB, but he has the traits to do so effectively if the opportunities open up.

The Rest – Too much effort separating Noses from actual useful DTs, and trying to work out where most of these guys will play, but there’s two others you might have considered or should consider. Andrew Billings (Undrafted) probably ends up as a nose tackle, replacing Peko for the Bengals. I mentioned earlier that Noses need to be absolute beasts to be fantasy successes, well Billings is that. A disruptive, powerful man who can toss blockers around and really disrupt the pocket, he could be worth keeping an eye on as a free agent down the line. Adolphus Washington (7th Round) is a raw prospect, but he will likely slot in alongside Marcel Dareus or just behind Kyle Williams on the Bills depth chart. With Dareus seemingly moving into a more NT role in Rex Ryan’s defence, probably out of spite because Max traded for him and Rex hates Max, that means Washington will be the guy in the middle moving up field to make plays. Of course, since Rex essentially plays a false four and lines up more like a 3-4, that could in theory make him an interior DE. That’s basically not much worth. But Rex won’t last long in Buffalo in all likelihood, and the Bills might get a Defensive Co-ordinator who builds a defence from what he has, rather than trying to put square pegs in the round holes of his own pet scheme.

On the Matter of the Trade of Demaryius Thomas

Facts:

Demaryius Thomas was traded from the DynaForOne Firebirds to the Tamworth Two on deadline day for Willie Snead, a 2016 1st, a 2017 2nd and a conditional 2018 3rd. The trade was processed at 7:54pm. The deadline is 8pm. The commissioner was otherwise indisposed at this time.

Iit was noted in the main NFL huddle that, according to the rules, picks may not be traded more than 2 drafts in advance. The commissioner, upon being notified of the issue at 10pm, stated to the two teams involved that he was happy for the final detail to be worked out and the trade to stand.

Formal complaints have been raised by two GMs who consider that the trade should not stand as an agreed legal deal was not in place by the deadline. Other GMs have a more ‘shades of grey’ opinion. Given the formal complaints raised, the Commissioner agreed to review the situation.

Review:

I came to a decision on my ruling yesterday and wrote up a formal response. Much more formal than this. I wanted to sit on it and weigh up whether I was making the correct decision or not before I posted it though. Upon reviewing what I had written, I felt I couldn’t stick with it and changed my mind. My words here might not be as thought through as in that original decision, and they come from a slightly different place. Please bear with me. I hope I can explain myself and the ruling adequately.

In reviewing this case I have to concede that the complainants are correct. The trade is not valid according to the rules on the website. The trade was not 100% completed by 8pm on the deadline day as the final, smallest element of the package was technically illegal. That said, the rules for trades are out of date. They allude to commissioner review of all trades before they are put through – a function which was removed after the first season. The rules suggest that all trades are signed off on the forums, and insist that all trades with conditional picks are signed off in this manner by both teams. In the past, teams have not been held to these standards. In addition, in the course of this discussion we all agreed that the rule for preventing picks from being traded more than 2 drafts away was a bad rule and should be removed.

I don’t think any league member would deny that the published rules on the website are out of date. They do not reflect rule changes agreed by the league and they are certainly not strictly followed. They rules were written prior to the league starting and have, on numerous occasions, been found wanting. I take responsibility for this, but I think we can all acknowledge that to get the rules spot on the first time, with no experience of dynasty, let alone salary cap dynasty, was nigh on impossible.

At no point during the League’s existence have we viewed the rules as black and white due to their inadequacies and our ongoing development of understanding of how our league works and how the rules relate to it. There have been countless times when rules have been bent because it was common sense. Nonetheless, I have to come back to the fact that the complainants are correct, allowing the trade is technically a breach of the rules.

However, there are other issues at stake here that need to be factored into the decision. As has been pointed out in the hangouts, where does the leniency end? Somebody stop the leniency! The League has been very lenient over myriad issues, and thus far I am positive everyone has benefitted at some point. And being lenient in this or other cases doesn’t mean people can get away with anything. That’s getting a little too close to a “if you allow gay marriage then that means beastiality is OK” kind of nonsense. I think we can all apply a degree of common sense and agree that one example of leniency doesn’t mean anything goes.

What is the alternative? When I initially wrote up my decision I decided to revoke the trade because, by the letter of the law, it was in breach. My decision went into the consequences of this and I did not like what I saw. The League becoming a police state. Every rule having to be adhered to precisely and my role of Commissioner having to come down hard on all minor breaches. Of course, this is as ridiculous as the anarchy vision of the future presented by leniency. And yet, it allowed for any minor breach to be pointed out and argued over and require a ruling. This process genuinely makes me miserable. I have not enjoyed having to make a decision on this or any other matter. I have not enjoyed the discussion. And I completely acknowledge that in that past I have been a ring leader in this kind of stuff. After a previous ‘discussion’ I looked into the mirror, I looked over the precipice, I didn’t like what I saw. If that leaves me inadequate to run a fantasy dynasty league, then so be it.

So what this ultimately came down to to me is what do I want this league to be? I have said previously that I believe my role as commissioner is to sit back and interfere as little as possible. I should just make sure the league runs by the rules. Theoretically this means that I should revoke the trade. However, my view has changed a little recently. This is a complex league and will need a guiding hand and it is the commissioner’s role to be that guiding hand. By my hand, I shape the league. The league is, in some respects, a reflection of me, or what I want to see in the world.

So how do I see the world? I don’t agree with every rule that’s out there, and I want people to see and evaluate all the circumstances that surround events and apply common sense. And I want people to generally be cheerful and have fun. I want our league to be fun, and if our league stops being fun, then I’m out. There are times when that point comes close. Some of those points I have entirely been at fault for. Probably more often than any other league member. Sometimes I get worked up about issues merely because I care about the league and want it to work. I want it to be perfect. But it can’t be perfect, nothing can. But it can be fun.

So I want to apply common sense to the league in matters of dispute. I want to take a step back and evaluate what is sensible, not what is “legal”. I want everyone to obey the spirit of the law, not the letter of the law. So, if we’re applying common sense here, what is the common sense ruling?

Let’s say the trade gets processed at 6:54, not 7:54. The issue is flagged and Neil and James resolve it, amending the terms of the deal by 7:45. Here is my question for you – what is different from this happening slightly after the 8pm deadline? Literally what is different in the league? Nothing.

Does that mean I should be allowed to do a trade now? No – the deadline was on Thursday.
But the deadline was 8pm and this was sorted out just after 8pm… Well, the deal went through before 8pm and they two teams made an honest mistake.
But a mistake nonetheless – one that means the trade isn’t valid… Was there an effort made to cheat the league? Was there ill intent in this deal? Aren’t all of us friends trying to have some fun before the sweet release of death?
Come on! OK – you want to go with the rules… for a trade to be reviewed by the commissioner, at least 3 league members need to protest the trade and only 2 have made formal protests, so none of this post exists and the trade can go through with the original terms (including the 2018 conditional pick).

Look – I get where the complaints come from, but nothing was done maliciously and the difference between them doing things correctly in time and making a minor corrective arrangement outside of the time limit is literally nothing. The results on the website are the same, the line-ups are the same, it changes nothing.

The common sense ruling is the one I made initially – the trade goes through and the amended conditional term is:

If DT finishes in the top 10 in 2016 across 16 weeks TT will give their 2017 3rd and 6th round picks and DFO will give their 5th.
If DT finishes outside the top 25 in 2016 DFO will give their 2017 6th
If DT finishes between 11 and 25 no further picks will change hands.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! – Week Seven

In last week’s Stat Blat, whilst looking at the Dynablaster Bombermen, I noted that their defensive line had been an area of weakness but something they’d addressed already with the trade for Aaron Donald. Well, this week the Dynablaster Bombermen’s defensive line scored 75.5 points on their own. That got me wondering about the highest and lowest performances from each positional group through both seasons so far. Was 75.5 a record high for a defensive line? Surely it must be! Read on to find out.

Note: Week 17 of the 2014 season was not included when collating these results.

QB

Highest:

1 Firebirds 37.12 S1 W7 Rusty Wilson
2 Tamworth Two 36.6 S1 W10 Aaron Rodgers
3 Firebirds 36.36 S1 W16 Rusty Wilson
4 Tamworth Two 34.92 S2 W3 Aaron Rodgers
5 Firebirds 34.24 S1 W5 Rusty Wilson

 

The running here are obviously dominated by God’s chosen QB (Wilson) and the Arm of the Doubtful (Rodgers). It’s a classic battle between good and evil.

Lowest:

1 Sadness 0.00 S1 W1 “Fuck You” Cam Newton
2 Breeses 0.36 S1 W16 Andrew Luck
3 Dungeoneers 1.84 S2 W5 Nick “Cunt” Foles
4 Sadness 2.62 S1 W6 Teddy Bridgewater
5 Losers 2.72 S1 W14 Peter Manning

 

Fun fact: In week 14 of season 1, David left Andy Dalton (26.28 points), Joe Flacco (24.36 points) and Derek Carr (22.36 points) on the bench in favour of Peter (2.72 points). Now, kids, that is how you PLOB yourself right up. For those of you wondering, Andrew Luck did not leave that game injured. He threw for just over 100 yards with 0 TDs and 2 interceptions. Impressive stuff.

RB

Highest

1 Breeses 74.2 S2 W5 Isaiah Crowell, Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin
2 Breeses 65.6 S2 W7 Devonta Freeman, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller
3 Firebirds 61.8 S1 W16 CJ Anderson, Jeremy Hill, Marshawn Lynch
4 Tamworth Two 61.6 S2 W6 Chris Ivory, LeSean McCoy, Jonathan Stewart
5 Champions 61.4 S1 W14 Le’veon Bell, Isaiah Crowell, Latavius Murray

 

Come on, who saw that coming at the start of the year? Who also saw Isaiah Crowell and Doug Martin each appearing in 2 of the 5 best RB performances of the Dynabowl so far…

Lowest

1 Dungeoneers 5.625 S1 W9 LaGarette Blount, Branden Oliver
2 Firebirds 7.3 S1 W6 Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch
3 Breeses 8.2 S2 W3 Isaiah Crowell, Doug Martin
4 Champions 8.3 S2 W1 Latavius Murray, Damien Williams
5 Firebirds 8.4 S1 W8 Chris Johnson, Marshawn Lynch

 

Crowell, Martin, Latavius Murray and Marshawn Lynch have the distinction of being in both the best and the worst RB groups. If I was better at this I’d probably give you some analysis right now. Here’s what I got: blah blah blah analysis blah blah best-selling book Fantasy Life blah blah analysis blah state-the-obvious.

WR/TE

Highest:

1 Kelkowski 109 S1 W1 Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, Cor!Darelle Patterson, Jordan Cameron, Julius Thomas
2 Losers 93.3 S1 W10 Larry Fitzgerald, Jordy Nelson, Emmanuel Sanders, Torrey Smith, Larry Donnell, Jimmy Graham
3 Kelkowski 91.5 S1 W2 Randall Cobb, Calvin Johnson, Jeremy Maclin, Cor!Darelle Patterson, Julius Thomas, Delanie Walker
4 Firebirds 91 S1 W8 TY Hilton, Julio Jones, Eddie Royal, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski
5 Firebirds 89.7 S1 W6 TY Hilton, Julio Jones, Mohammed Sanu, Demaryius Thomas, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski

 

We still love you Cor! Darelle! The passing game has never been better than those heady days of the first weeks of the Dynabowl. What a glorious time that was! It just goes to show, it’s a running league.

Lowest:

1 Breeses 12.1 S2 W1 DeSean Jackson, Charles Johnson, Steve Smith Sr., Terrance Williams, Owen Daniels
2 Dungeoneers 14.25 S1 W14 Keenan Allen, Andre Johnson, Brandon Marshall, Kenny Stills, Kyle Rudolph, Jason Witten
3 Breeses 14.4 S1 W9 Dwayne Bowe, Pierre Garcon, Andrew Hawkins, Steve Smith Sr., Zach Ertz
4 DynaHarder 17 S1 W12 Kenny Britt, Julian Edelman, Cecil Shorts III, Sammy Watkins, Jace Amaro
5 Dungeoneers 18.1 S2 W5 Keenan Allen, Amari Cooper, Michael Floyd, Reuben Randle, Coby Fleener

 

Tough reading for fans of the Brees and the Dungeoneers. Probably not surprising reading though.

SPEC

Highest:

1 Dungeoneers 23.6 S2 W4 Cairo Santos, Andy Lee
2 Sadness 22.725 S1 W9 Adam Vinatieri, Shane Lechler
3 DynaHarder 21.3 S1 W11 Mason Crosby, Marquette King
4 Breeses 21.2 S1 W10 Matt Bryant, Brett Kern
5 Dungeoneers 20.475 S1 W12 Cody Parkey, Mike Scifres

 

Lowest:

1 Dungeoneers 1.65 S1 W14 Cody Parkey, Mike Scifres
2 Dungeoneers 3 S1 W4 Cody Parkey, Pat O’Donnell
3 Losers 3.3 S1 W16 Justin Tucker, Donnie Jones
4 Champions 3.95 S1 W6 Shaun Suisham, Brad Nortman
5 Firebirds 4 S1 W8 Dan Bailey, Tim Masthay

 

The Dungeoneers showing that famed consistency hear by having two of the best scoring special teams units and two of the worst. I like that Parkey and Scifres put up over 20 points in week 12 and then under 2 in week 14. Absolute gangbusters.

DL

Highest:

1 Bombermen 75.5 S2 W7 Aaron Donald, Haloti Ngata, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams
2 Breeses 69.5 S1 W10 Marcell Dareus, Aaron Donald, Michael Bennett, Cameron Jordan
3 Kelkowski 58.75 S1 W7 Nick Fairley, Everson Griffen, DeMarcus Ware
4 DynaHarder 55.35 S1 W13 Jonathan Hankins, Ezekiel Ansah, JJ Watt
5 Champions 50.5 S1 W8 Tom Johnson, Robert Quinn, Cameron Wake

 

Well, there’s the answer to your question. Yes, the Bombermen’s score on the line this week was the highest ever. By a comfortable margin too. The players on that top 5 read very much like a who’s who of defensive line talent, it’s not difficult to see why these guys scored like they did. Plus Tom Johnson’s there too. Good old Tom Johnson. Who’s Tom Johnson?

Lowest:

1 Dungeoneers 1.25 S2 W3 Tyrone Crawford, Demarcus Lawrence, Stephen Paea
2= Sadness 1.5 S2 W1 Sharrif Floyd, Damontre Moore, Devin Taylor
2= Sadness 1.5 S1 W1 Michael Brockers, Jared Allen, Calais Campbell
4 Champions 1.75 S1 W4 Steve McClendon, Mike Daniels, Cameron Wake
5 Bombermen 2.5 S2 W1 Kyle Williams, Cameron Wake, Mario Williams

 

A round of applause for the Dynasty of Sadness in managed to fashion a tie for 2nd place in the worst D-line performances of all time. Mike and Mark certainly know how to get their defence off to a strong start to the year. Looking at the players in these units it’s very noticeable that one of these is not like the other. 2.5 points for the Williams twins and Cameron Wake would have been unthinkable last season.

LB

Highest:

1 Champions 63.25 S1 W8 Anthony Barr, Jamie Collins, Justin Houston, Wesley Woodyard
2 DynaHarder 57.55 S1 W5 Von Miller, CJ Mosley, Alec Ogletree, Jason Worilds
3 Kelkowski 55.8 S2 W6 Stephone Anthony, Karlos Dansby, D’Qwell Jackson, Brandon Marshall
4 Champions 55.5 S2 W6 Anthony Barr, Shaq Barrett, Jamie Collins, Justin Houston
5 Champions 53.95 S1 W4 Anthony Barr, Justin Houston, Khalil Mack, Wesley Woodyard

 

It’s like no-one believed me when I said linebacker was the most important fantasy position.

Lowest:

1 Losers 1.25 S2 W3 Ryan Kerrigan, Paul Kruger, Alex Okafor
2 Bombermen 3.5 S2 W7 Connor Barwin, Elvis Dumervil, Sean Lee
3 Firebirds 5 S1 W4 Mason Foster, Julius Peppers, Lawrence Timmons
4 Firebirds 5.75 S1 W3 Mason Foster, Manti Te’o, Lawrence Timmons
5 Dungeoneers 6.25 S1 W8 Connor Barwin, Dwight Freeney, KJ Wright

 

I seriously don’t know who Mason Foster is. If this week’s Stat Blat has made me realise anything it’s quite how bad Neil’s team was at the start of last season. What a tremendous rags to riches story his Dynabowl triumph was. Someone should film that. With Paul Giamatti playing Neil.

DB

Highest:

1 Bombermen 76.45 S1 W10 Casey Hayward, Bradley Roby, Ha-Ha Clinton-Dix, James Ihedigbo
2 Bombermen 73.2 S2 W4 Stephon Gilmore, Bradley Roby, Corey Graham, TJ Ward
3 Sadness 59.75 S2 W3 William Gay, Jerraud Powers, Eric Berry, Tyrann Mathieu
4 Kelkowski 58 S2 W3 Janoris Jenkins, Jimmy Smith, Mike Adams, Malcolm Jenkins
5 Kelkowski 57.55 S1 W13 Janoris Jenkins, Devin McCourty, Mike Adams, Rashad Johnson

 

The fact that the Bombermen and Kelkowski each have 2 entries here somewhat belies my theory that DB scoring is entirely random. Note that the presence of more season 2 scores in this entry than others is likely influenced by the point increased for Defended Passes this season.

Lowest:

1 DynaHarder 3.75 S1 W7 Patrick Peterson, Sam Shields, Deone Bucannon, Jonathan Cyprien
2 Sadness 4.5 S1 W10 Travis Carrie, Kyle Fuller, Eric Berry, Tyrann Mathieu
3 Dungeoneers 5 S1 W11 Vontae Davis, Chris Harris, George Iloka, Rahim Moore
4= Losers 6 S1 W4 Darius Butler, Logan Ryan, Chris Conte, Glover Quin
4= DynaHarder 6 S1 W13 Antoine Cason, Patrick Peterson, Micah Hyde, Eric Reid

 

I can’t help but think that at least three of those entries would make pretty good real-life secondaries. That’s fantasy football for you, I guess.

OFF

Highest:

1 Losers 177.205 S1 W4
2 Kelkowski 165.36 S1 W8
3 Firebirds 164.34 S1 W5
4 Losers 164.21 S2 W2
5 Firebirds 161.62 S1 W14

 

Lowest:

1 Dungeoneers 52.7 S1 W14
2 Sadness 54.97 S1 W11
3 Breeses 58.345 S2 W1
4 Bombermen 62.19 S2 W7
5 Dungeoneers 64.965 S2 W5

 

DEF

Highest:

1 Kelkowski 143.6 S1 W13
2 Tamworth Two 142.05 S2 W6
3 Bombermen 130.95 S1 W10
4 Champions 129.25 S1 W8
5 Firebirds 126.55 S1 W16

 

Lowest:

1 Firebirds 26.75 S1 W1
2 Tamworth Two 27 S1 W16
3 Dungeoneers 32.25 S1 W11
4 Sadness 35 S1 W10
5 Kelkowski 36.5 S1 W14