Author: Max Cubberley

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Weeks 1-4

Like a bad 80s pop group the Stat Blats just keep coming back, regardless of whether they’re merely a shadow of their former selves.  This week I take a look at how the 10 Dynabowl teams have started out the season and which units are propping their teams up and which deserve to be put gently to sleep.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks, Receivers

Spearheaded by new draft pick Leonard Fournette and suprisingly-currently-healthy Carlos Hyde the Dungeoneers have the third highest average scoring running back unit in the Dynabowl at the moment.  Both of the aforementioned chuggers are in the top 10 at the position through 4 weeks but Pete Conaghan will be hoping that nothing happens to either of them as the likes of Terrance West and Chris Ivory don’t offer much backup.  As the season develops his reserve strength may improve if Alex Collins and Samaje Perine can make inroads into the starting jobs on their teams but if not those bye weeks are going to hit the Dungeoneers hard at this position.

Another area of strength for the Dungeoneers is their secondary as, again, they are third highest scorers at the position.  Given that the team only has 1 CB (Chris Harris) in the top 50 scorers at the position it will not surprise you to learn that most of this success has come from the tandem safety pairing of Karl Joseph (Oakland) and Kevin Byard (Tennessee) with Ha-Ha Clinton Dix providing able cover for injuries and bye weeks.  Really Pete should be looking to draft in another cornerback or two as with some improvement at this position he could have the best secondary in the Dbowl.

On the frowny-face side, we have the fact that the Flanders Quarterbacks are the lowest scoring unit, on average, in the league garnering a measly 13.32 points per game, nearly 4 points below the average.  Given that both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson are in the top 10 at the position however this really has to come down to head coaching decision as Pete put his faith in Cam Newton for the first two weeks, missing Wentz’ big games, and then went to Wentz for weeks 3 and 4, missing Newton and Watson’s big games.  This is a selection headache that Pete Conaghan will have every week going forward but the law of averages says he’s going to start guessing right at some point and that score should creep up.

Really, it’s no wonder that the Dungeoneers’ QBs are struggling with this shower to throw to though.  With only three WRs in the top 60 at the position (and one of those has been riding the pine) the Dungeoneers are the second worst team at this position a whopping 9 points below the average.  Amari Cooper has to answer for some of these problems as the much-vaunted Raiders’ receiver isn’t even in the top 60 wide receivers after four weeks.  With second year pro Josh Doctson failing to spark early on a lot is riding on the shoulders of Keenan Allen and Davante Adams and I’m sad to say that I can’t see this unit improving much in the coming weeks.

Offence Average: 94.24 points (7th)
Defence Average: 78.53 points (4th)
Overall Average: 172.76 points (7th)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Peter)

 

Here Comes The Brees

Forging Ahead: Defensive Line, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Receivers, Linebackers

The Brees’ production line of defensive tackle talent continues apace.  Unperturbed by the departure of Aaron Donald, Ben Archer has continued to dominate at the position with the only thing stopping him having the top two scoring tackles being an injury to Fletcher Cox that has limited his scoring to only 5th at the position.  The tandem of Cox and DeForest Buckner will, injury permitting, continue to rack up points for the rest of the year.  The DE position is the poor country cousin in this unit by comparison but Cameron Jordan is steady as ever, putting up DE1 numbers through 4 weeks, and Michael Bennett is sitting comfortably in the top 20 too.

A top pass defence is made up of a powerful rush and good players in the secondary and the Brees have the latter part of that locked down too having scored the second most points there so far this season, only just behind the Sadness in 1st.  Much like the Dungeoneers, however, this unit is severely unbalanced in favour of the safeties.  The Brees only have one cornerback in the top 30, Justin Bethel.  Given that over half of Bethel’s points came in week 1 when he wasn’t even on the roster this is not great performance.  Thank the Lord for their safeties then.  With 4 players in the top 21 the Brees have top production and strength in-depth enough here to cover bye weeks and injuries.  With Ronald Darby coming back in a few weeks the Brees should be set to keep producing at a high level in the secondary.  Looking at these pieces it’s small wonder the Brees have the best defence in the Dbowl at the moment.

Maybe they should look at converting some of those secondary players to receivers as it’s unlikely they could be much worse than the reprobates currently filling their roster out at the wide receiver position.  Until this week the injury to Allen Robinson and under-performance of Martavis Bryant meant that JJ Nelson was the only receiver in the top 40.  Ben Archer has not sat idly by through this crisis however and this week saw a move made to bring in an elite option in the shape of JJ’s big white brother, Jordy.  The steady WR1 production he will bring to the Brees can anchor them and if Bryant can work into the form they may yet turn out to be ok.  Particularly given the strong showing from their TEs so far this year where, even with Tyler Eifert’s injury problems, they have two guys in the top 10 as both Zach Ertz and Charles Clay have been target hogs for their teams.

The picture is not so rosy at linebacker where, even allowing for the fact that they have only started three players at the position in two of the weeks, the output has been poor.  This is really a story of a lack of elite options as the Brees have 3 guys in the top 40 and Shaq Thompson just outside that.  The dudes they have are doing ok but to pick up performance somebody needs to step up to the table and hit at least high LB2 levels.  With that a unit that is already at the top end of what the Dbowl has to offer could become a true runaway leader on that side of the ball.

Offence Average: 93.54 points (8th)
Defence Average: 85.06 points (1st)
Overall Average: 178.60 points (6th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Peter)

 

Tamworth Two

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Running Backs, Secondary

Slim pickings for T2 in what has been a disappointing start to the season for them.  With most of their units hovering around average the only thing to really pick out for comment in good terms is the Quarterbacks where they score 3.5 points more than average and are 3rd strongest amongst all Dbowlers.  Not much analysis to be done though, that’s just what happens when Aaron Rodgers is your QB.  Kirk Cousins provides strong backup at the position for bye week cover but T2 better hope Rodgers stays healthy or one of the few things that’s been going right for them this year may disappear.

To say that T2 have been struggling at the RB position seems odd.  On paper their attack of LeSean McCoy, Bilal Powell, Mike Gilislee and Duke Johnson looks strong but those players have just not performed consistently with none of them cracking the top 15 backs so far this year.  As a consequence T2 are actually 2nd lowest scoring at the position, 7 points per week behind the average and over 21 points per week behind the top unit.  This feels like a blip though, I fully expect this unit to have returned to the top half by the end of the year as NFL offences warm up, the Patriots stop getting into shootouts every week and the Jets realise that Bilal Powell is more or less their only weapon on offence.

Their problems at secondary may not correct themselves as automatically however.  Through 4 weeks the returning ability of Adoree Jackson makes him their only succesful option at CB and Landon Collins, a monster last season, has disappointed so far this year putting in only low S2 numbers.  The good news for T2 is that with scores of 11.5, 15.25, 22 and 28.18 the performance of their secondary is trending up as Goodson and Ward start to get their selections right and work that blind bidding for better options.  T2 are consistently amongst the best in the Dbowl at building defences and spotting strong performers early so I am confident this can be turned around.

Offence Average: 95.36 points (6th)
Defence Average: 77.03 points (6th)
Overall Average: 172.39 points (8th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Peter)

 

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Receivers (also Secondary but I’m fed up of writing about secondaries already)
Stuck in the Mud: Er… Special Teams?

My prediction for Dbowl champions ahead of the season, the Sadness have had a funny old start to the year.  They’ve scored very well being, on average, the 2nd highest points scorer in the competition yet they are 2-2 after 4 weeks.  Scoring of that kind of calibre should pay off over the course of 13 weeks though and I would be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.  Their running backs are really leading the charge for Mangboob’s team as they are the top scoring unit of their type in the league, a frankly silly 7 points better per week than anyone else and 14 points above the average.  Kareem Hunt’s superhuman breakout is a large part of this but with Ezekiel Elliott and Ameer Abdullah on the books too, the Sadness are not just a one-trick pony.  Assuming that Jacquizz Rodgers loses his starting job to Doug Martin the bye weeks could present a problem for Mangboob, however, as he only has Theo Riddick and Shane Vereen backing up his starters.  Having said that, there aren’t many teams in the league for whom bye weeks aren’t a problem though as the RB position is thin for a league playing three starters each week.

The Sadness actually have a complete offence though with their receivers lagging only slightly behind the backs, being the 2nd highest scoring unit so far this year, 8.5 points per week above the average.  This position is only really likely to improve too as Odell Beckham is currently outside the top 20 WRs due to injury and Eli (admittedly, only one of those is going to go away).  Stefon Diggs and Michael Thomas lead the line for the Sadness with the former being the #1 receiver so far this season (how’s that Dez Bryant trade looking, Chris?).  There is strength in-depth here too with Allen Hurns, Pierre Garcon and Ted Ginn all sitting behind the front 3 ready to contribute solid WR4 numbers.  At TE they appear comfortable too as, even with Jordan Reed’s disappointing start to the season, Delanie Walker is still a mid-tier TE1 able to happily cover the position off and put up good numbers.

They also have the best secondary.  Same story as everyone else here really.  Rubbish CBs and really good Safeties.  It’s almost like the CB position is impossible to predict, eh?

So where do the Sadness fall down then?  It’s difficult to pick out a problem area to be honest as, really, the issue is that too many of their other units (LB, D-line, QB) are just at or below average.  The only place they fail to score well is on special teams where the Sadness’ haul of 10.16 points per game is the worst in the league.  Despite both his kicker and punter being miles outside the top 20 at the position, Mangboob is keeping faith with both of them seemingly and this could be a problem as he’s currently giving away 4 points per week to the average team due to this oversight although at least he hasn’t lost any games by that margin so far this year.

Offence Average: 119.25 points (2nd)
Defence Average: 78.48 points (5th)
Overall Average: 197.72 points (2nd)
Record: 2-2 (3rd in Peter)

 

Dynasore Losers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Everything Else

Look, there’s not much point in going into the stats here.  David Slater’s Losers are in full rebuild mode here with their ageing or short contract players being traded away for picks so looking at the numbers tells us nothing.  Let’s instead take a look at the players that the Dynasore Losers have to anchor that rebuild around.

First off, they look set at Quarterback.  I don’t know what happened to Derek Carr in the last two weeks but, long-term, I think he’ll be a good fantasy Quarterback and Jameis Winston is no slouch either though Slater could probably do with Winston not cracking the top 7 this year to keep his renewal price down.  At any rate, there’s no immediate need at this position.

Similarly at RB the building blocks are in place for a decent unit.  Despite both being on the same team, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have very different roles and there’s no reason why both can’t be top 25 at their position at least in a year if the offence is built right.  Behind those two sit Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington who will, I think, in the next few weeks start to take more workload away from Marshawn Lynch who is starting to look his age after a bit of week 1 and 2 freshness.  Add Christian McCaffrey on top of that and this part of the team should be fine.

Offence Average: 82.53 points (10th)
Defence Average: 54.61 points (10th)
Overall Average: 137.14 points (10th)
Record: 0-4 (5th in Peter)

 

Champions of the Sun

Forging Ahead: Receivers, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line, Secondary

Apart from an inexplicably terrible week 1 performance the former Dbowl champions have looked strong so far this year, led by their receivers and linebackers, both of whom are the top scoring units at their position so far this year.  At WR, the Champions have 7 players in the top 40 and 4 in the top 20, showcasing impressive (and somewhat unexpected) strength in-depth that should see them able to cope with their bye weeks ok.  It would be fair to question whether the performances of the likes of Chris Hogan (TD dependent so far) and Sterling Shepard (a lack of OBJ) can continue but even with a bit of regression from a couple of players they should remain strong to season’s end.

By contrast, the linebacker performance is all about top end with three guys in the top 5 (Clowney, Houston and Mack) and McKinney in the top 20 but then only one more player anywhere in the top 50.  This performance is more likely to drop, both through injury and bye weeks and Clowney’s large number of big plays through 4 weeks.  Max Cubberley will hope to see more from the likes of Anthony Barr, Kiko Alonso and Jamie Collins in the coming weeks to bolster his options at the position.

Really, it’s a good job the linebackers are doing well because the D-line and the secondary have been a disappointment.  After signing Leonard Williams to a decent sized extension this off-season Cubberley will have been hoping the Jets DE could be an every week starter but he only has 6.5 points through 4 weeks.  Combined with Khalil Mack’s off-season re-positioning to LB, the Champions have been left in the lurch and this shows with an average weekly score of only 16.88, good for 9th in the league.  The bright spot for Cubberley is Dante Fowler’s emergence and he must now be an every week starter despite his comparatively low snap count.  The Champions felt confident at DT going into the season with Marcell Dareus, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins but so far only Collins has had any value and Dareus has recently been dropped.  This unit should improve going forward with the addition of Danielle Hunter and the emergence of Dante Fowler and Cubberley will hope it does to take some pressure off his LBs.

The same will be needed from the Champions’ secondary who have scored 20.19 points per game so far this year, 8th in the league and 2.5 points below average.  There are some mitigating factors here however with 3 of the Champions’ 8 starting CBs (PJ Williams, Orlando Scandrick, Josh Norman) so far this year unable to even complete the first half of their games.  The players who have seen out the games haven’t been great either though with none of Reshad Jones, Jahleel Addae or TJ Ward able to put up points at safety.  Cubberley will be hoping that the recently promoted Malik Hooker (#9 safety so far) and the added EJ Gaines and Jason McCourty can help the unit to kick on.

Offence Average: 121.68 points (1st)
Defence Average: 80.16 points (3rd)
Overall Average: 201.84 points (1st)
Record: 3-1 (3rd in Tim)

 

DynaForOne Firebirds

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks, Defensive Line, Special Teams
Stuck in the Mud: Secondary

Looking through the Firebirds stats it is apparent how unlucky they are to be 1-3 and bottom of Tim.  They have a number of units performing very well (as well as the ones I’ll cover their receivers are very good too) and even their lesser performing units are largely just below average rather than bad (with one exception).

The place to start here is at Quarterback where Neil Hawke has rolled out Russell Wilson every week except one and, despite the Seahawks’ struggles, done very well out of it.  After a slow start (which saw Wilson dropped for Big Phil Rivers) the diminutive QB has racked up the points with over 60 in the last two weeks, good enough for #3 at the position behind Tom Brady and Alex(!) Smith(!!!!).  With Rivers and Dak Prescott backing up Wilson, the Birds are set for a few years here.

Perhaps more surprising is the Firebirds’ performance at receiver where they rank 3rd behind only the Champions of the Sun and the Dynasty of Sadness.  Sure, you would expect a unit led by Julio Jones and Rob Gronkowski to be good but, whilst Gronk’s been Gronking, Jones is only the #31 WR so far.  The real star has been not-quite-dead-yet Larry Fitzgerald, who is lurking in the top 10 but beyond that Hawke’s receivers are doing fine but not spectacularly.  It all goes to show the difference that Gronkowski makes as a TE with his superiority at the position helping to take the burden away from everyone else.  A quick note here on Neil’s special teams unit who are the best in the league.  With the #2 kicker and the #6 punter the points are going on the board every week at a steady rate.  Take note Mangboob!

The real weakness in the Firebirds’ team is the secondary, the lowest scoring in the Dbowl and giving away 2 points to the secondary in 9th and 5.5 points to the average secondary.  The worst part of this is the Hawke actually has good players at the position.  Darius Slay and Desmond Trufant are the #3 and #16 CBs and Devin McCourty is the #16 safety.  True, he has no good second option at safety but perhaps this a case of too much tinkering.  If Hawke keeps it simple from now and plays his top-scoring guys every week there should be an improvement here.

 

Offence Average: 114.80 points (3rd)
Defence Average: 67.63 points (8th)
Overall Average: 182.43 points (5th)
Record: 1-3 (5th in Tim)

 

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Forging Ahead: Sorry lads…
Stuck in the Mud: Running backs, receivers, linebackers

Ooof, talk about first to worst.  Well, you can’t quite talk about that thanks to the Dynasore Losers epic deconstruction of what can be considered a “team” but the season is not going well for Kelkowski.  As such I have nothing positive to say.  Their D-line and Quarterbacks are both 4th in the league but every other unit is below average and, in the case of their running backs, worst in the league.  Scoring an incredible 18.13 points per week, Kelkowski’s ball-movers are giving away an almost unbelievable 14.5 points per game to the average Dbowl running attack.  Speaking as someone who owns both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the Cbowl I can see where a lot of this problem is coming from but Mark Ingram has not been doing the business either and behind those three is only the walking corpse of Chris Johnson and whatever a TJ Yeldon is.  Boys, I know that trading is for suckers but it may be time to start dusting off the fax machine and finding some way to address this problem.

Although, maybe that would just be a waste of time.  After all, Kelkowski’s receivers are only one place better, being 9th in the league and only .7 points per week ahead of the Dynasore Losers.  At least they’re only giving away 6 points per week to the average team here though so that’s an improvement right?  When your top four scoring receivers are Devin Funchess, Rishard Matthews, Travis Benjamin and Jaron Brown though you are going to have a problem.  To be fair to them Kelkowski have hit a perfect storm of under performance so far this year.  Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin and Terelle Pryor have all been major disappointments in one way or another and find themselves all outside the top 40 receivers.  At this point though, would anyone like to bet that they will improve?  I’m not sure I would.

This roast now concludes with a look at Kelkowski’s linebackers, traditionally a strong unit for them.  Although bad (4th worst in the league and giving 6 points away to the average) this area is not as disastrous as the two above.  Kwon Alexander and Dont’a Hightower has been missing most of the year and that’s two big names to be without.  Behind them both Terrell Suggs and recently acquired Nick Vigil are performing at LB2 levels and there are a cadre of guys lower than that who have been ok but nothing more.  Really the team is suffering from a lack of high impact players at the position and this should get better when Alexander and Hightower are back and now Nick Vigil’s apparent 10-tackle-floor can kick in.

Offence Average: 85.20 points (9th)
Defence Average: 65.66 points (9th)
Overall Average: 150.86 points (9th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Tim)

 

Live Free or Dyna Hard

Forging Ahead: Running backs, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line

In many ways, DynaHard are the anti-Tamworth Two in that their success comes this year from being at or just above average in most things and not having any real weaknesses.  One of their best units though has been their running backs who are the second highest scoring (albeit still 7 points a week behind Mangboob’s powerhouses).  The resurgent Todd Gurley (#2) leads the way and Chris Braithwaite has a guy in every tier from there down with Ty Montgomery performing as an RB2, Frank Gore as an RB3 and Wendell Smallwood as an RB4.  To cover his bye weeks Chris is going to have to hope that wily vets Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch still have something in the tank but, fitness allowing, Gurley and A. N. Other running back should really be enough to keep up a high level of performance.

Although not performing as well as his running backs, Braithwaite’s linebackers are 3rd in the league and best of the rest behind the elite performances of the Champions of the Sun and the Bombermen (see below).  CJ Mosley, Ryan Kerrigan and Von Miller are all in the top 10 with TJ Watt and Demario Davis also in the top 21.  Continuing to look down the list we find Jatavis Brown and Thomas Davis both putting up decent numbers for bye week cover and this unit should continue at this level, if not improve, to season’s end.  If anything I would expect to see them close the gap on the top 2 rather than sink down into the pack.

As mentioned, there’s not much that DynaHard are bad at but Braithwaite will be disappointed in his defensive line so far this year.  A lot of resources are tied up in JJ Watt and, for understandable reasons, he has not looked anything like his former self so far this year.  That puts the DE production on the shoulders of Ziggy Ansah, Olivier Vernon and rookie Solomon Thomas.  Vernon (in my experience) has always been a slow starter but the signs look good that Ansah is close to a return to form so I expect to see this unit improve from their current 3rd worst position towards the middle of the pack as we go through the year.  There could be problems at DT however where Chris has all his eggs in a Timmy Jernigan-shaped basket, being literally his only player at the position.  I’m sure DynaHard have plans to address this either through trade or free agency but with Jernigan questionable for this week’s game sooner would be better than later!

Offence Average: 112.27 points (4th)
Defence Average: 76.20 points (7th)
Overall Average: 188.47 points (3rd)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Tim)

 

Dynablaster Bombermen

Forging Ahead: Special Teams, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks

On offence this season the Bombermen have been pulled through by their special teams performance as the rest of their unit has been patchy.  Sam Koch is the #3 punter and Will Lutz is the #6 kicker.  Apparently #6 isn’t good enough for The Commish though because Lutz finds himself on the scrapheap, shunted in favour of the mighty Legatron, the #1 kicker in all of football.  Could the league’s 2nd best special teams unit just have made the move to push them ahead of the Sadness into first place?

On defence it’s the Bombermen’s linebackers who are carrying the team however.  Similarly to the Champions of the Sun’s elite unit however there is a lot resting on Ryan Shazier and Chandler Jones here (the #3 and #4 linebackers).  Outside those 2 only have two more LBs in the top 50 (Zach Brown at 33 and Sean Lee at 49.  The Bombermen need to hope that Shazier and Jones can stay fit (something the former has not been able to do historically) and that rookies Reuben Foster and Carl Lawson can build on the promise they’ve shown so far to become solid contributors as the season goes forward.

Maybe I was wrong.  Maybe the Bombermen are the anti-Tamworth Two because the secret of their success this year seems to be not being worse than 6th in the league at anything and then letting your elite special teams and linebackers carry you.  I’m going to criticize their Quarterbacks a bit though because although they are only 7th in the league they are giving away 3.5 points on the average which is reasonably significant.  It’s hard to be too critical though, you would have thought that going into the season with Matt Ryan as your #1 and Tyrod Taylor as your backup would’ve been fine but so far Matt Ryan is giving you a return more like his 2015 version than the Superbowl one.  Hopefully for the Bombermen he’ll turn that around but in the short-term it may actually be worth looking to Tyrod Taylor’s running floor until he does.

Offence Average: 101.70 points (5th)
Defence Average: 82.36 points (2nd)
Overall Average: 184.06 points (4th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Tim)

Peter vs. Tim

The last thing to do before I leave you (probably for another year) is a quick look at how Peter and Tim are doing overall.  Maybe this is the year the gap closes?  The year that Peter can finally match or even surpass Tim?

1 2 3 4
Peter 168.18 171.59 155.381 191.744
Tim 170.784 192.183 194.132 169.023
Winner Tim Tim Tim Peter
Margin 2.60 20.59 38.75 -22.72

Not likely, mate.  TIM FOR LIFE!

2017 Free Agency Review: Tim

Kelkowski

Drew Brees (NOS, QB) – $35, 1 year
Brandon Coleman (NOS, WR) – $1, 1 year
Rishard Matthews (TEN, WR) – $17, 4 years
Terrelle Pryor (WAS, WR) – $25, 3 years
Eric Decker (NYJ, WR) – $20, 2 years
Gary Barnidge (CLE, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dennis Pitta (BAL, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dont’a Hightower (NEP, LB) – $8, 4 years
Nick Perry (GBP, LB) – $4, 4 years
AJ Bouye (JAC, CB) – $3, 3 years

If there was one team that you should really look at all the small deals for it’s Kelkowski as they seem to have half the league on $1, 1 year deals.  They did make a few splashes in free agency though with big money going on Brees, Pryor, Decker and Matthews.  This year could be the year that Brees drops off the cliff but if it isn’t Kelkowski have addressed one of their big areas of need for at least one season and the short term nature of the deal obviously minimises the risk.  With three mid-priced WRs added to the team it’s apparent where else Kelkowski thought they needed to strengthen and, to be fair, if they hadn’t they’d have been relying on Randall Cobb and Will Fuller for the entirety of 2017.  All three deals are for guys who seem to now be the number 1 option on their team but there is uncertainty about the standing of both Decker and Matthews in the depth chart so time will tell.  Barnidge and Pitta are both notable cheap deals.  Each has their question marks but both could end the season as solid TE1s and for deals with no risk attached that’s good business.

On the defensive side of the ball I like the Hightower deal as he could be a top tier linebacker if his health would ever let him.  At $8 that’s a risk worth taking.  Perry is also a good bet at that price.  He may disappear back to obscurity but it’s no big loss if he does and he showed his ceiling last season.  With AJ Bouye you’re paying for his 2016 season and now that he’s in a new team I would have no faith in him to produce again.  For $3 though who cares?

Dynablaster Bombermen

Chris Thompson (WAS, RB) – $6, 3 years
DeSean Jackson (TBB, WR) – $12, 3 years
Michael Crabtree (OAK, WR) – $24, 3 years
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, WR) – $8, 2 years
Cameron Wake (MIA, DE) – $11, 2 years
Yannick Ngakoue (JAX, DE) – $14, 5 years
Chandler Jones (ARI, LB) – $30, 4 years
Zach Brown (WAS, LB) – $13, 5 years
Eric Weddle (BAL, S) – $2, 3 years

Benjamin Hendy was a busy man in the off-season and the Bombermen have gone hard at the free agent market, preparing themselves for a big push for the Owl in 2017.  On offence the monster move is Michael Crabtree and it looks like a good one.  The money is not to be sniffed at but you’re talking about paying Crabtree like a WR3.  He was that in 2015 and was a top-end WR2 in 2016 so unless you think he’s going to take a step back in 2017 then he looks a safe investment.  The Raiders could draft a WR and impinge on his value somewhat but with so many problems on their defence it would be a surprise.  DeSean Jackson is even better value at $12.  Sure, he’s boom-bust but that is a pittance for a player who will win your matchup for you some weeks.  He’s the second target to Mike Evans in Tampa but Jackson is not a player who needs high volume to get it done and the B-Men won’t be relying on him as anything more than a WR3 at best.  Fitzgerald is a solid pick-up, his ceiling is low but his floor is high.  Chris Thompson is a bit of a lottery ticket and the price looks a dollar or two high for me but he was the most competent of Washington’s backs last season so he’s worth a look.

I’m less enamoured of the defensive moves the Bombermen have made, however.  Ngakoue’s price is defensible, if not cheap, but the length of the contract represents a risk to me as he’s much more likely to underperform than overperform at that money.  Zach Brown too is being paid quite a lot based on one season of production in a different team.  Cameron Wake’s deal sits in the middle, not bad value for a guy who can top-score when he’s on form, but he’s getting old now and has injury concerns.  I would rather have had Robert Quinn at $8 than Wake at $11, personally.  Coming back to the good end of the spectrum though we have Chandler Jones at $30 (expensive but he is a tippy-top linebacker) and Eric Weddle (a very steady S1/2 for a good price).  One thing I absolutely cannot fault Hendy on though is the aggressive way he has moved to fill his needs.  The Bombermen don’t have much by the way of draft picks this season so he needed to get his team in shape to challenge by the end of this window and, putting aside an overpay or two, it looks like mission accomplished.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Dak Prescott (DAL, QB) – $29, 4 years
LeGarrette Blount (FA, RB) – $16, 2 years
Jonathan Stewart (CAR, RB) – $8, 2 years
Adam Thielen (MIN, WR) – $14, 3 years
Kenny Stills (MIA, WR) – $9, 3 years
Jared Cook (OAK, TE) – $10, 3 years
Nick Fairley (NOS, DT) – $25, 3 years

Let’s start here with the good stuff.  Neil Hawke’s running backs were less a stable than a rotten manger and some action was definitely required.  There is a lot of talk of Carolina being the landing spot for Leonard Fournette in the draft but until that speculation bears fruit then Jonathan Stewart is the main man there and $8 looks good value.  Even if he ends up in a committee or as a handcuff it’s not a terrible deal.  LeGarrette Blount, on the other hand, does look like one.  Yet to find a team, Blount’s value was entirely tied to his position in New England and if he doesn’t end up back there then the chances of him being worth that money are remote.  At least it’s only a short deal.  Kenny Stills isn’t bad value at $9, he could easily prove to be Miami’s second threat behind Jarvis Landry this season and their main deep option so he has a good shot to outperform that figure. I can only assume that Neil has mistaken Adam Thielen for someone else.  The #33 WR in 2016, Thielen scored a quarter of his points in one week and seemed to end up as a target for the Vikings by accident.  I can’t help but feel that money could have been better invested somewhere else.  Jared Cook has landed in a good spot in Oakland but $10 is a big overpay for a player who has promised much throughout his career but delivered little.  He was the #40 TE last season due to injury and whilst he flashed when fit I don’t know how much competition the Birds would have had for him at $5, let alone $10.  Dak Prescott is just nuts.  In a league where QBs are ten a penny Prescott should maybe be earning half what he is.  Last season he finished 6th, sure, but the question is one of repeatability.  To my mind you need to see a QB have more than 1 season performing like that before you pay him like he’s worth it.

On defence the only significant move that the Firebirds made was the addition of Nick Fairley to play alongside Geno Atkins at DT.  Unfortunately this is another huge overpay in my opinion.  Fairley is a player with a history of playing well for one season then dropping off the radar and he has just scored elite money in the Dynabowl.  There are very few DTs in the league who are worth paying over $20 for and Nick Fairley isn’t one of them.  Trust me, I own another of them.

Champions of the Sun

Ryan Tannehill (MIA, QB) – $7, 3 years
Danny Woodhead (BAL, RB) – $10, 2 years
Jack Doyle (IND, TE) – $8, 2 years
Mario Addisson (CAR, DE) – $3, 3 years
Kiko Alonso (MIA, LB) – $5, 3 years
TJ Ward (DEN, S) – $3, 3 years
Reshad Jones (MIA, S) – $11, 4 years

The Champions of the Sun were always light at QB behind Big Ben and while Tannehill is at a decent price the inconsistency of performance he has shown across the years does not inspire confidence as a primary backup.  GM Max Cubberley is likely counting on QB Whisperer Adam Gase working his magic but if Paxton Lynch doesn’t become a viable QB 2 in Denver then he may find himself light on options.  Danny Woodhead seems like good RB depth, something the Champions need.  He is in a new scheme and has question marks over age and injury but he has shown an RB1/2 ceiling in the past and, at that price, if he can be a decent RB3 there will be no complaints.  The only other offensive move outside some RB flyers was Jack Doyle, the Indianapolis Tight End.  He currently heads the depth chart with both a QB and a scheme that are TE-friendly and so this seems like decent value even if he isn’t the most explosive or exciting of players.  Indianapolis may end up drafting a TE to replace him but it’s rare for rookie TEs to be a factor in their first year so the Champions should see at least one year of decent production from Doyle.

There wasn’t much money to throw around at Paddy’s Pub for free agents with a new deal for Khalil Mack on the horizon but the biggest chunk of change went to Reshad Jones.  $11 puts him in the elite bracket of safeties in terms of pay but it seems reasonably safe.  Jones has not changed scheme or team and in Miami he was the #1 safety (total points) in 2015 and the #2 safety (points per week) in 2016.  Paying premium money for a player is always a risk but Jones would seem to have a good shot of being a top 5 at his position every year, health allowing.  The other main moves on defence were reasonably small fry.  Amidst a whole host of $1 safeties and corners, Cubberley forked out $3 for TJ Ward.  Ward is a solid option, unlikely to trouble the top of the safety rankings but fine to serve as a #2 or #3 to Jones.  Kiko Alonso could be a steal at $5 (#22 LB in 2016) although concerns about him being shifted about in Miami’s scheme as well as his ever-present injury problems could just as easily sink him.  Mario Addison is a deal similar to Akiem Hicks for the Sadness.  A player who seemed to step up from mediocrity last season but whose role in the team for 2017 seems to be the same.  Maybe he’ll drop back to obscurity but he just got paid like a starter in Carolina and if he can be a solid DE2 again then it’s a good deal.

DynaHard

Adrian Peterson (FA, RB) – $14, 1 year
Latavius Murray (MIN, RB) – $26, 3 years
Eddy Lacy (SEA, RB) – $18, 3 years
Marshawn Lynch (OAK, RB) – $2, 1 year
Frank Gore (IND, RB) – $9, 1 year
Mike Wallace (BAL, WR) – $10, 2 years
Mohammed Sanu (ATL, WR) – $2, 3 years
Tavon Austin (LAR, WR) – $3, 3 years
Kenny Britt (CLE, WR) – $5, 1 year
Antonio Gates (SDC, TE) – $5, 1 year
Calais Campbell (JAX, DE) – $24, 1 year
Thomas Davis (CAR, LB) – $9, 1 year
Ryan Kerrigan (WAS, LB) – $11, 1 year

DynaHard GM Chris Braithwaite certainly appears to have carried his in-season waiver wire form into the off-season with a large number of players signed.  This scattershot approach seems to have largely swept up shit players, old players or shit, old players but if Chris hits on 25% of these tickets then he will be happy enough.  Where else to start but with the running backs where Braithwaite’s exasperation with Todd Gurley could not be evidenced more keenly than by giving Eddy Lacy $18.  By all accounts even fatter than last season, Lacy goes into a crowded and uncertain Seattle backfield.  It’s a lot of money to put on a player with a history of not getting in (or staying in) good shape.  $26 Latavius Murray has moved to just about the worst place for a running back in the league and this is a player who was massively touchdown dependent behind one of the best O-lines in the league.  I’d also slam the signing of Frank Gore except with Indianapolis, who knows?  They’re crying out for a new RB there but then that was the case last season too and they didn’t get one so maybe they’ll go back to the well of Gore one more year.  Peterson and Lynch are both much better deals.  Although AP doesn’t have a team yet I don’t expect that to last and he should be at least a goal-line back wherever he lands which offers decent value.  Lynch was a gamble when Chris signed him (being retired as he was) but all the signs now point to him being at least Oakland’s short-yardage back for the coming season which, even sharing the load with Jalen Richard and Deandre Washington, has value.  Just ask Latavius Murray.

DynaHard also added some mediocre to terrible wide receivers to their options too.  Tavon Austin hasn’t done it up to this point and doesn’t look like he’s about to start now, Kenny Britt is wince-inducing bye week cover at best and Mohammed Sanu can probably be relied upon for 3 or 4 points most weeks which is something I suppose.  Mike Wallace is the only one of the bunch that has much upside but a lot will depend on Baltimore’s draft moves there.  Overall I like this bunch a whole lot more than the RBs, mostly because they’re all cheap deals.  Yeah, they’re pretty terrible players but if one of them is a usable WR3 then it’s a decent result.  Antonio Gates is a move I like better.  A cheap deal for a guy who should still end the season as a good TE2 at least.  Gates will be solid bye-week and injury cover at least, if not more.

Chris was pretty set on defence, having one of the best units in the league, and his tinkering around the edges here are all decent business.  In Arizona Calais Campbell was hit and miss but usually ended the season on the cusp of DE1 at least.  In Jacksonville you have to think he’ll play more than two-thirds of the defensive snaps so the floor of his production goes up and hopefully his 30+ point ceiling remains intact.  For all that, he did just sign an FA deal with Jacksonville so he’ll probably score about 17 points over the season and spend most of it on the beach.  Thomas Davis and Ryan Kerrigan are both good LB pick-ups.  They each have LB1 ceilings if they have a good season (though the chances of Davis doing that at his age are diminished) and add good depth to the team.


That’s it for my 2017 free agency review.  If you got this far then thanks for reading and if you have any thoughts or comments feel free to post them here on the huddle but please bear in mind I couldn’t give a shit what you think.

2017 Free Agency Review: Peter

I love the smell of free agency in the morning.  Just like in the NFL, the Dynabowl is split between the haves and the have nots as half the team throw their cap space around like a cat in a bag and the other half count their pennies looking for that $2 linebacker that will really propel them to the next level.  Below is a slipshod, poorly thought out review of free agency in 2017.

I know free agency isn’t done yet.  Shut your hole.  Disclaimer: I haven’t looked at or included the majority of the small deals in this piece.  Mostly because I’m lazy.

Tamworth Two

Rex Burkhead (NEP, RB) – $1, 3 years
Doug Baldwin (SEA, WR) – $48, 2 years
Cameron Brate (TBB, TE) – $22, 4 years

A quiet free agency so far for T2 as their cap-strapped status shows through.  Goody and Mat moved to address two problem areas though with Baldwin added to a lackluster stable of middling talent at WR and Brate joining Eric Ebron to add to a depleted TE pool.  Doug Baldwin seems like a decent value here as he has shown high-end production for the last two years.  You could question how good he would be in another team (or, rather, how well he would be used) but the 2 year deal recognises those questions and minimises the risk.  Cameron Brate is a huge overpay in my book.  At $22 you are expecting him to be the top 5 TE he was last year every year and with Tampa expected to draft a TE high I wouldn’t be comfortable about his future.

Of the smaller deals, Rex Burkhead is the one who stands out.  T2 moved quickly to lock Burkhead down when he didn’t have a team and gambled on his landing spot.  He ended up in New England and with the Patriots moving on from Blount, looking unconvinced by Dion Lewis and seeing James White as a purely receiving back he could get a big opportunity to impress there.  Nothing is certain and Burkhead will have to fight his way up the depth chart but if he can do it then this deal could be a huge steal.

The Sadness

Eli Manning (NYG, QB) – $8, 2 years
Eli Rogers (PIT, WR) – $4, 4 years
Pierre Garcon (SFO, WR) – $2, 3 years
Akiem Hicks (CHI, DE) – $2, 3 years
Tyrann Mathieu (ARI, S) – $15, 5 years

The Sadness really started to turn a corner last season and, perhaps mindful of some expensive extensions to come, Geoffrey Manboob did not swing big in the free agent market.  With the loss of Brees there was a big hole at QB and Eli Manning, though an imperfect solution, goes some way to filling it.  The Sadness are carrying 6 quarterbacks currently (Glennon, Goff, Alex Smith, Osweiler and Bridgewater) and none inspire confidence.  If Manning is as unconvincing as last season then this could turn into a game of whackamole as Geoffrey tries to guess which QB will be competent from one week to the next.  Rogers and Garcon are a couple of nice, cheap deals at WR.  Neither has an elite ceiling but both could be very solid contributors and nice trade pieces if the right situation arises.  Garcon in particular could easily end up in the top 25 at WR as the number 1 target in San Francisco and you aren’t kicking that out of bed for 2 bucks.

Only two moves stood out for me defensively.  Akiem Hicks has been playing well in Chicago’s front seven and was a top 10 DE last season.  In short, exactly the kind of player you may as well bet $2 on in free agency.  Mathieu is a bigger risk and a bigger question mark.  If he plays 16 games in a season he will be worth that money but with a few big injuries in his past now his health has to be a major concern.

Dynasore Losers

Jalen Richard (OAK, RB) – $17, 3 years (still active at time of writing)
Marqise Lee (JAC, WR) – $11, 4 years
Marvin Jones (DET, WR) – $13, 2 years
Ndamakung Suh (MIA, DT) – $49, 2 years
Robert Quinn (LAR, DE) – $8, 4 years
Kurt Coleman (CAR, S) – $11, 3 years (still active at time of writing)
Bradley McDougald (TBB, S) – $4, 4 years

With cap space to burn, GM David Slater seems to have gone free agent crazy this off-season.  RB is a clear area of need for the Losers and Richard (if won) showed flashes last year but the money seems off the charts here to me for a player who isn’t likely to escape RBBC.  The Losers do also have DeAndre Washington on their roster so maybe this is an aggressive move to lock down that backfield but I wouldn’t bet against the Raiders bringing in another player in FA or the draft to add yet more uncertainty to the mix.  Lee and Jones are a pair of WRs who offer a bit of depth at WR but it must be asked if this was really needed.  As Slater himself will tell you if you open up a 3 second pause on conversation, he has a lot of talent at the position already.  Jones’ numbers from last season look fine but he was not a reliable week-to-week proposition and Marqise Lee is as likely to disappear down the depth chart again as he is to have another top 30 season.

There are two real eye openers on defence with the Losers going aggressively after Suh and, bizarrely, Kurt Coleman.  Suh is a lot of money but he does, at least, have a top level ceiling that could pay off in spades.  Kurt Coleman, on the other hand, is a fairly run of the mill safety who was picked up off waiver wires in both of the last two seasons and now becomes a top 5 paid player at his position.  Perhaps both of these moves are intended by Slater merely to push up extension costs for other players at their position but, if so, I don’t quite get the logic at safety.  Robert Quinn is the Losers’ best move of free agency.  Like Tyrann Matheiu above he is a player who can really perform above and beyond at his position when healthy but unlike Mathieu he is being paid at a very reasonable rate.  Slater can afford to front-load all his guarantee and proceed for the next 4 years knowing he has a player who can be cut for nothing but,if fit, has the potential to be top 3 at his position.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG, DE) – $22, 2 years

With arguably the weakest roster in the league and plenty of cap space it’s no surprise to see Pete Conaghan making a big splash in the… in… in Free…

Oh

I can only assume Pete was busy with real life while all this was going on.

In defence of the Dungeoneers, they were probably the team with the fewest players released in free agency and thus didn’t need to fill out their roster too much but it’s hard to believe that the squad couldn’t have benefited from some of the players on offer.

Here Comes The Brees

Drew Brees (NOS, QB) – $Whatever needed paying, forever (wait, what?  They didn’t?  And he calls himself a fan!)
Torrey Smith (PHI, WR) – $1, 3 years
Robby Anderson (NYJ, WR) – $3, 3 years
JJ Nelson (ARI, WR) – $7, 3 years
Lorenzo Alexander (BUF, LB) – $2, 2 years
Christian Kirksey (CLE, LB) – $9, 4 years
Jonathan Cyprien (JAC, S) – $3, 3 years

With big extensions looming the Brees were a little limited in free agency this season and prioritised moves to bolster their perennial Achilles’ heel at wide receiver.  I like all three deal to varying degrees.  Torrey Smith is the best value here.  He will be a starting wide receiver in Philadelphia and it feels difficult to hold his San Francisco wilderness years against him with the shitshow on offence there.  For $1 there is zero risk here and plenty of reward.  Robby Anderson is by no means guaranteed to get plenty of snaps in New York but he really came on at the end of last season and, particularly if the team cuts Decker, he could be in line for a bigger piece of the pie.  JJ Nelson is the deal I like the least.  Carson Palmer is done and the Cardinals have no plan B.  Add to that the fact that Nelson could not prove himself reliable last season and you have a speedy receiver with a lot of variance.  It’s not a particularly expensive deal though so there’s not a huge risk.

On the other side of the ball Lorenzo Alexander may have been a flash in the pan but why wouldn’t you take a chance on him repeating some of that production for $2.  Cyprien is another solid move on the defensive side as he has shown himself to be a steady if unspectacular performer and someone that you can drop in each week you need to and feel happy with his floor.  Kirksey is the biggest gamble of the Brees’ free agency as he is a lineback who has yet to really prove he can perform to a high level.  He has shown flashes, however, and is still only 24 so has plenty of room to grow.  I think it’s unlikely he consistently performs to a level that is greater than replacement however.

 

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 6

Better late than never!  Or maybe not.  I’ll leave that up to you.  In week 4 I took a look at every team’s offensive performance so far in 2016 and compared it to their 2015 performance to look for improvement and decline.  This week I’ll be doing the same with the defense.  To the stats!

2016 Week 1-6 Average vs 2015 Average
Dungeoneers Brees T2 Sadness Losers Champions Firebirds Kelkowski Hard Bombermen
DT/DE -6.31 4.90 -8.94 1.80 -3.83 4.10 1.40 7.85 -5.02 -2.05
LB -0.29 8.69 3.39 -3.05 7.57 -4.63 3.14 -6.71 -1.17 3.46
CB/S 4.13 2.63 3.08 -9.36 -3.03 -9.20 5.86 -3.58 7.45 -1.51
DEF -2.46 16.22 -2.47 -10.61 0.71 -9.73 10.39 -2.44 1.26 -0.10

Defensive Line

Winners: Kelkowski are crushing it on the D-line this year!  Nearly 8 points up on 2015!  Look a bit deeper though and it has, perhaps, some of the qualities of a mirage.  Firstly, JPP and friends are averaging 22.67 points per game, slightly above average for the D-line.  It’s an improvement but it’s a movement from bottom of the pile to mid-table obscurity.  Secondly, that average is propped up by a massive 63 points in week 3 when the ghost of Malik Jackson briefly turned up to spook Ebeneezer Kelkowski.  Across the other 5 weeks they average 14.6 points, a number better only than Pete’s damp paper bag of a D-line.  Despite losing Aaron Donald, the Brees are functioning better than last season too.  Part of this is due to replacing the best DT in fantasy football with the second best in Fletcher Cox but Michael Bennett and Cameron Jordan are both solid producers too.

Losers: Oh T2, we knew thee well.  After triumphing in the “underwhelming running back” stakes last time out, Goody and Mat show us that they can disappoint on both sides of the ball.  Some of this decline is due to missing pieces (Gerald McCoy and Chandler Jones have been absent much or all of the year) but I think we see an impact of the scoring changes here.  T2 hit big on Kawann Short and Gerald McCoy last season and DTs are probably the group to take the biggest hit from the downgrading of big plays.  Both have scored very well but those 40 point games should be gone now for the most part.  A lot of last year’s big DT scorers have done worse through the start of 2016.  The Dungeoneers d-line is also down 6 points but I don’t think I can kick Pete anymore so let’s leave it at that.

Linebackers

Winners: There are two clear winners in this category, the Brees and the Losers.  Both units were very poor last season so, like Kelkowski’s D-Line, this improvement puts them in the middle of the pack rather than raising them to the top of the charts.  Slatz invested in the position in free agency and the draft with Paul Posluszny and Markus Golden delivering and Deion Jones and Leonard Floyd looking strong through the start of their rookie seasons.  The Brees, meanwhile, seem to have gone for the “2015 Josh Norman” effect and just picked up a player from waivers having a monster season in Lorenzo Alexander.  51 of the 99 points they’ve scored at LB in the last three weeks have been from him.  Improved play from Will Compton and Shaq Barrett is helping but to maintain this improvement they need Alexander to continue playing out of his skin.

Losers: What would Max Cubberley say if you asked him about the decline of his linebackers (4.5 points down on last season).  He’d tell you that they’re still scoring more than anybody else’s linebackers so you can go fuck yourself.  He’d probably also whinge on about injuries and players moving position but lets not give him a platform.  Kelkowski’s overall defensive decline continues here with their linebackers regressing the most out of all the teams (6.7 points down on last season).  Their situation is the reverse of the Losers’ and the Brees’.  Kelkowski’s LBs were among the best in the business last season and this year they’re just… average.  D’Qwell Jackson and Brandon Marshall are the main culprits here and Stephone Anthony’s reduced playing time at strong side LB for the Saints leaves them short a little bit of depth.  Zach Orr is a good wire pickup though who should be able to compensate for that.

Defensive Backs

Winners: Yuk.  Defensive back analysis.  Well, Dyna Hard and the firebirds are both doing better this season than last.  Rodney McLeod was a great pick-up for Chris and Aqib Talib’s 3 INTs so far this year certainly don’t hurt.  Chris’ DBs are comfortably the highest scoring in the league so far this season and his main problem now is the potential for PLOBbage.  With 43 cornerbacks to choose from on any given week, it’s no wonder that Neil is doing well but the PLOBbage is real here.  Trying to predict S and (particularly) CB scoring week on week is far from easy and although Neil has done a good job it must be frustrating to look at your bench every week and see the road not taken.

Losers: The Sadness and the Champions both show an equal decline at the DB spot.  For Cubberley the situation is similar to his LBs.  Despite losing 9 points a game on 2015 the Champions still have the third highest scoring set of DBs in the league so this decline is as much a result of an outlying season of success as anything else.  With Reshad Jones gone for the season now though Maxxxxxx will have to look deep into the waiver wire to try to maintain the pace.  The Sadness, on the other hand, are, by nearly 6 points per game, the worst secondary in the Dbowl.  Their decline is from mediocrity to abject failure.  Looking at the scores of his players for the year to date though you wouldn’t think you were looking at a secondary so adrift from the rest of the field.  To be honest, they’ve scored from disappointing to average every week rather than terribly and this slump is really a result of having no big weeks so far.  A couple of INTs this week could see them pick up and return closer to the average.  DBs, eh?  It’s a funny old game.

Defence

Winners: Although his DB improvement is the best, Neil has improved across the board on defence this season, scoring over 10 points more than last year per game.  At 86.20 points per game, his group is the best in the Dbowl at the moment but the week on week stats show a sharp decline.  In weeks 1-3 the Birds averaged 108 points per game on D.  In weeks 4-6 that number fell to 64 points per game.  He’s had big pieces on bye in each of those weeks but it’s something to keep an eye on.  If I was Neil I would be moving to address the obvious gap at DE in his roster.  Maybe drop a CB or two to make ro… who am I kidding, he’s never going to drop any CBs.  If you think improving by 10 points is impressive, though, look at the Brees!  A 16 point increase!  That takes them to averaging 76 points per game which is… wait… it’s bang average.  Putting aside Pete’s crepe paper D (sorry Pete) the Brees were about that far adrift of everyone else last season.  Really, it would have been more impressive to be so bad two seasons in a row.

Losers: Let’s just check in with Max Cubberley on what he thinks about his defence averaging 10 points fewer than last season.  “Go fuck yourself!”  Thought so.  The Champions are still the second best scoring defence but last week was a low outing from them and this week’s lineup has a few too many waiver wire pickups for my liking.  We’re not too far off a week where Cubberley starts 4 Texans’ linebackers and that can’t be good for anyone.  The Sadness are the other team to have lost 10 points off their average.  Most of that is their secondary, as discussed, though and there is some cause for optimism that those numbers could improve over the season.  Despite Linval Joseph’s monster season so far the Sadness only show a 2 point improvement on the D-Line though and there is room for improvement here.  Mangboob’s DEs are not inspiring and a little trade magic could really help him to improve those numbers and make a playoff push in Peter.

Overall

Winners: It will come as no surprise to anyone that the Bombermen are the big improvement on last season, averaging 24 points more per game than last season’s disappointing results.  You’ll have seen that they were conspicuous by their absence in today’s report and, indeed, their defence is operating at a 0.1 loss on last year.  All of this is offensive improvement and it looks like it has the legs to go all season.  The Sadness are the other big improvement, nearly 15 points up on last year.  This is despite giving 10 points away per game from their receivers and it shows the difference that a certified stud like Zeke Elliot can make.

Losers: Last season’s hot ticket, the Champions of the Sun, are back scrapping with everyone else this year, down 10 points on defence and 6 points on offence.  Despite all of this they’re still scoring well but some thinness at RB and secondary is coming home to roost and they’re now in a position of relying on Trevor Siemian week on week for production.  After them, Tamworth Two are having a ‘mare this season, giving away 8 points a game.  LeSean McCoy is keeping their running game above water on his own and it’s really just the D-line and special teams (!) that account for the decline.


Weekly Stats

TABLES!

Don't Look Blat In Anger
Don’t Look Blat In Anger

Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54  Tim wins.  3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18  Tim wins.  4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)
Week 5: Peter (average) 177.50 vs Tim (average) 176.66  PETER WINS.  4-1 to Tim (victory margin 0.84)
Week 6: Peter (average) 170.47 vs Tim (average) 174.70  Sanity is restored, Tim wins.  5-1 to Tim (victory margin 4.23)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 179.85 vs Tim (average) 192.52. Tim leads (margin 12.68)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 4

Well thank Christ for that.  Week 4 is in the books and finally we have some data that is actually starting to mean something.  This feels like the first point in the season, for me, that we can really look at our teams’ performances and start to draw meaningful conclusions.  Over the next two weeks I’m going to take a look at each team’s average score by position group so far this season and compare it to their average from weeks 1 – 16 of last season.  This week: offence.  To the data!

2016 Week 1-4 Average vs 2015 Season 2015 Average
Dungeoneers Brees T2 Sadness Losers Champions Firebirds Kelkowski Hard Bombermen
QB -1.06 -1.08 2.49 5.96 -0.36 4.09 -5.23 -2.22 -6.23 -0.73
RB -3.84 -4.36 -6.44 14.34 4.54 0.84 3.13 9.75 -2.29 13.61
WR/TE -3.59 5.26 2.18 -12.68 6.34 0.42 -9.69 -5.67 -0.41 10.71
SPEC 2.09 0.95 -2.59 -2.10 -0.09 -2.29 -1.11 2.79 -1.22 0.91
OFF -6.41 0.77 -4.37 5.52 10.43 3.06 -12.90 4.65 -10.14 24.49

Yuk.  It looks much prettier in my spreadsheet, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Quarterback

Winners: So far MANGBOOB has resisted the urge to fiddle about switching Drew Brees in and out with whatever no mark he has down the depth chart and it’s paying dividends with an increase of nearly 6 points on average at the position.  I mean, last season’s performance was a low bar to clear (less than 15 points a week) but a win’s a win.  The Champions are showing an improvement of over 4 points too with Roethlisberger, Eagles aside, going to town so far in 2016.

Losers: So far through 4 weeks, a QB has been in Dyna Hard’s top 10 scorers of the week only once, in week 1 (for comparison, everyone else has had a QB in their top 10 3 or 4 times).  Chris has cycled through Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and even Marcus Mariota so far, trying to play matchups but those three are simply too hard to predict (well, you could probably predict Marcus Mariota hasn’t been worth starting any of these weeks).  Chris is probably best advised to pick one of Stafford and Manning and stick with them although no doubt whoever he picks will be the wrong one.  The other big loser here is the Firebirds but I’m wary of reading too much into this.  The Seahawks typically take time to get their offence going and Wilson has been banged up.  I think we can expect to see this improve.

Running Backs

Winners: There are two runners way ahead of the pack here, the Sadness and the Bombermen.  Neither of these is difficult to analyse.  Imagine me standing mutely on a stage.  To my right is Ezekiel Elliot.  I am pointing at Ezekiel Elliot.  To my left is David Johnson.  I am pointing at David Johnson.  You can dive a bit deeper and say that both are getting better support from Jeremy Hill and Matt Jones’ raging lack-of-any-competition but you probably don’t need to.

Losers: As many Dynabowl experts predicted (well, one… well, me) at the start of the season, T2 are suffering at tailback this season.  Jonathan Stewart disappeared some time in September and without him LeSean McCoy is trying to navigate choppy waters on his own.  T2 have traded for Bilal Powell this week in an attempt to put things back on course and it’s a good solid move that should help to steer them back towards mediocrity.  The other big loser here is Breeses but, considering their RBs are still the 5th highest scoring in the Dbowl, I don’t think there’s much to read into this.  With Doug Martin injured and Devonta Freeman not scoring three TDs every game it was bound to happen.

Receivers

Winners: The Bombermen are another big winner here and when you consider that between receivers and RBs they’re averaging 24 points more than last season it’s easy to see why they’re top of the rankings.  It feels like this is the production we thought was coming this year so it’s not really a surprise.  It must be very pleasing for Ben to see, having kept faith with Cooks, Benjamin and Jordan Matthews as each came through their own struggles last season.  The Losers and Brees are also much improved here and you can point at off-season trades for Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry respectively as big factors in this.

Losers: While every category so far has been a triumph for the Sadness, the reading isn’t so pretty here.  Odell Beckham is mouthing off more than he’s balling out and losing Eric Decker and Golden Tate (look, he was good last season) has hurt too.  Stephon Diggs looks like the real deal though and as MANGBOOB’s rookies start to warm up to the NFL this score will head back the right way.  The Firebirds are the next in line to the throne of suffering.  No Gronk, no Demaryius Thomas and no Brady slingin’ it to Edelman probably explains this.  The good news for Neil is that Willie Snead looks to be a good WR 2/3 going forward and that Gronk and Brady will be back firing on all cylinders soon.  The real person to look to for trouble here is Pete.  Cooper doesn’t get a sniff in the end zone and Allen and Kevin White are done for the season.  That -4 is only going down from here I’m afraid.

Special Teams

Winners: We are all winners because we play in a league with fantasy punters.  Every day I wake up a little bit happier than I would have been otherwise, knowing that this is the case.  Now, if only we could get those fantasy Long Snappers in.

Losers: All those plebs out there who restrict themselves to a fantasy kicker.  They don’t know what they’re missing.  The only thing better than a great punt is an awful punt.

Offence

Winners: The Bombermen are a whopping 25 points better this season on offence than last season, turning from a middle of the road goose (they weren’t bad enough to be an ugly duckling) into a swan.  Most of that 25 points is accounted for above so I will take the time to draw attention to the second most improved team on offence, the Dynasore Losers.  I haven’t mentioned them much in any of the categories above because their improvement has more been about building on what came before.  Good gains at receiver at and running back pair with holding steady at QB and special teams to produce a strong growth.

Losers: Dyna Hard are one of the biggest losers compared to last year, their offence being 10 points down on last season’s performance.  Much of that is accounted for in QB as mentioned above but it’s worth noting that they are worse in every single offensive position this season, a worrying trend.  Bottom of the pile are Neil’s Firebirds with a modest gain at RB from CJ Anderson’s new-found reliability not enough to counteract that weakened receiver corps and a banged-up Russell Wilson.  The question really is, if Neil is giving 13 points away on offence compared to last season then how has he had such a decent start to the season?  Tune in to next week’s blat to find out…


Weekly Stats

Here are your stats after week 4.

Blat Once Again With The Renegade Master
Blat Once Again For The Renegade Master

 


Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54  Tim wins.  3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18  Tim wins.  4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 182.78 vs Tim (average) 200.94. Tim leads (margin 18.17)

Oh dear.  That margin just keeps growing.  I might have to call this for Tim.  TKO.