Kelkowski clocked in as the third highest scorers and the third highest potential scorers in 2014, a feat achieved on the back of a fearsome trident at both RB and WR. First up were Arian Foster, Former Heisman Trophy Winner Mark Ingram Jnr, and DeMarco Murray. Foster is now out for probably the first 6 weeks of the season minimum and while Alfred Blue is also on the roster, the drop in quality is something similar as from Tony Romo to Blake Bortles. FHTWMIJ Is still fit and raring to go at New Orleans but CJ Spiller has come in and will take some of the carries away from him. Meanwhile DeMarco Murray is one of the most intriguing players of the season due to his move to the Eagles. While he’s likely to remain very effective, he will surely see a reduction in carries too as he shares the work with Ryan Matthews and Darren Sproles. All told, the running backs are looking likely to regress from their dominant position in 2014.

At receiver, they put out Calvin Johnson, Randall Cobb and Jeremy Maclin, who can be expected to improve, repeat and regress from last season respectively. All told that’s a wash, but I’d be concerned if Johnson missed any more time, while Maclin only has one healthy, truly productive season on which to base predictions so how far he regresses is unknown. That said, he does have Alex Smith to take advantage of his pace down the sidelines.

Beyond that, there’s little depth at WR. Doug Baldwin is in an offence which might look to get more aerial, but has Jimmy Graham and Tyler Lockett to get past now. Devin Funchess could be in a position to try to emulate Kelvin Benjamin but he’s a converted tight end still learning the role; calling 1000 yards optimistic would be an understatement.

At tight end, Julius Thomas’ performance may shed some light on the long held debate about who is better, Peyton Manning or Blake Bortles, while Jason Witten has been an incredible player for many years but his powers must surely be waning.

The defence is pretty similar to the Bombermen’s, with strength at DE but a lack at DT and a decent balance at LB and CB, and unmatched depth at safety. That said, the Jason Pierre-Paul injury hurts. He had 12.5 sacks last year but you can probably count the number he’ll get this year on the fingers of one… oh. Anyway, if JPP doesn’t like it he can give me the finger. Sorry. That was quite tortured. To be fair, the injury could motivate him to come back with a chip on his shoulder and everyone knows when JPP is in the mood there are fireworks.

Now, just as a palate cleanser, let’s head back to AWE. Kelkowski were the closest thing the league had to a 9 win team in 2014, clocking in at a win expectation of 8.59. They had the greatest likelihood of hitting 8 wins, at 78.1% so definitely merited their place in the playoffs. If anything, these stats suggest they should be looking to move up, not down, but that, of course, doesn’t take into account any of the factors laid out above.

Verdict:

It’s tough to get repeat performances in the NFL. Too many players will have a career year and then regress back to the mean. If everything goes right for Kelkowski they are title contenders, but I just don’t see Foster/Blue, FHTWMIJ, Murray and Maclin all hitting the heights of 2014. In fact, I don’t see any of them doing so. This will still be a strong team who will be in with a shout come the end of the season.

Prediction:

6-7, though that could just as easily be 8-5. Tim is a strong Division and someone ends up being the fall guy. At the end of the day, I think there were one or two too many career years in 2014 for the numbers to repeat, but there’s enough strength here that a playoff spot wouldn’t surprise me either. The problem with predictions in these previews is that they really need to tally and I can’t just say 8-5 about everyone.

2015 Commish Preview: Champions of the Sun

August 31, 2015

Commish

Team: Champions of the Sun – Max Cubberley

2014 Record: 6-7, 5^th pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Jay Ajayi (RB), MyCole Pruitt (TE), Leonard Williams (DE), Dante Fowler (DE)

Free Agency – Andre Branch (DE), Brandon Flowers (CB)

Trade – John Brown (WR), Roy Helu (RB), Corey Brown (WR), Marcell Dareus (DT)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Cameron Wake (DE), Bruce Irvin (LB),

Trade – DeSean Jackson (WR), Isaiah Crowell (RB), Terrance West (RB), Marqise Lee (WR)

Preview:

Out of contention for the playoffs after week 12 but with the quality to be in contention, the Champions ended with an AWE of 6.89, nearly a win better than they achieved. 4^th top scorers and 5^th in potential points and, at an 87% chance of reaching 6 wins, they certainly feel hard done by. Added to this, on paper it doesn’t look like much significant has changed so the expectation will be an improvement in luck and a playoff spot.

Looking a little closer though and that may be a little optimistic. While the QB position is fine, Roethlisberger came into his own last season and has a great unit to work with, the RB position looks a little bare. Yes, the Champions have the best RB in the game at the moment in LeVeon Bell (assuming the two games he’s due to miss don’t cost the Champions vital wins in a competitive league). They are also in the enviable position of having the key Oakland running back situation locked up between Helu and Latavius Murray, but CJ Spiller is not known for his resilience. Granted, he should get some good service in New Orleans but he’ll also be sharing the carries with Former Heisman Trophy Winner Mark Ingram Junior.

The wide receivers certainly look better – DeAndre Hopkins and Mike Evans are an excellent lead duo but Malcolm Floyd and Roddy White’s best days are behind them and it’s dubious as to whether they can put together a meaningful fantasy season. John Brown is an excellent depth addition, but Justin Hunter should be in jail and Percy Harvin is in Buffalo, which is the wide receiver equivalent of solitary.

A good combination of TEs should use up one of the flex slots to cover up the lack of depth elsewhere but it will be interesting to see how these players are permed (hopefully like Kevin Keegan circa 1979).

The defence is really where this team comes into its own. The acquisition of Marcel Dareus has eased fears at DT (after a brief foray into DE), though a short suspension at the start of the season could open up an opportunity when the Champions play the champions in week 1.

Given the depth on defence, you have to ask why the further investment in the draft when limited additions have been made to the, significantly weaker, offence. Still, a suffocating D has won many a Super Bowl; it remains to be seen if it can win a Superb Owl.

Verdict:

There are two questions that will determine exactly how successful this team can be – 1) Can Cubberley pick the right defenders in the right week? Defensive players scoring will peak and trough from one week to the next. Having the depth that the Champions have is great but if Cubberley starts second guessing his line-ups he could end up doing himself out of some points. 2) Can he scare up enough points from an under-resourced running back crew and aging wide receivers to fill out the offensive starters?

Prediction:

8-5 and into the Superb Owl. Might be asking a bit much to take the title but this is a strong team, especially on defence. Work the waiver wire well, make a couple of trades at the right time and this could turn into a great season.

2015 Commish Preview: Dynablaster Bombermen

August 31, 2015

Commish

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Team: Dynablaster Bombermen – Benjamin Hendy/Dan Smith

2014 Record: 7-6, 6^th pick, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Melvin Gordon (RB), David Johnson (RB), Chris Conley (WR), Justin Hardy (WR), Trae Waynes (CB), Shane Ray (LB)

Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB), Cameron Wake (DE), Joe Flacco (QB)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Andre Johnson (WR), Vontae Davis (CB), Connor Barwin (LB), Jurrell Casey (DE), Orlando Scandrick (CB)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Frank Gore (RB), Devin McCourty (S)

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Charles Sims (RB), Danny Lansanah (LB), Andre Williams (RB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (S)

Preview:

Missing out on the playoffs on the last day of the 2014 season was blow, but one the team deserved. This was the second most over-achieving team with an AWE of 6.11, nearly a full game below the actual number of wins achieved through the season. The team had only a 39% chance of winning at least 7 games and so can be considered a little lucky.

In addition, the team was closer to the bottom of the league than the top when it came to total points and potential points while team selection efficiency was pretty much bang on league average at 78.6%. All told, a lot of work was needed in the off-season to revamp this team and kick on in 2015.

The work is only partly done at QB. Matt Ryan is a fine starter and with a new coach and OC in Atlanta and a good supporting cast, he should be absolutely fine, with top 10 numbers being the minimum expectation. Johnny Fucking Football is gone, just when he looked like becoming the best QB in Cleveland. But then none of the GMs of this league are in Cleveland – if they went, the moment they touched down they’d be a strong second at the minimum. RG3 will be given a season to see if anything is salvageable, but otherwise Chatterbowl winner Joe Flacco should provide able backup.

A lot of change at RB, with steal of the century (calling Lacy a steal is a disservice to the art of thievery) Jeremy Hill coming in. The team have three teams’ backfield situations wrapped up in San Diego, Cincinnati and Arizona, and while only Cincinnati would be considered a top 10 group, there’s hope that this could be one of the stronger RB units in the DynaBowl in 2015.

Less turnover at receiver, where less work was needed. Andre Johnson has the best QB situation of his HoF-worthy career and will be looking to make hay while he can while AJ Green will be looking to bounce back from a terrible down-year. Fantasy Football is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world and Green’s value has fallen but Hendy & Smith will be looking for it to be back at the top table come December.

The team has its 2014 rookies returning… well, two out of three. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is painful but one this roster should be able to withstand. Cooks looks to be the central figure in New Orleans while Jordan Matthews should be a high volume operator in Philadelphia. Anquan Boldin is a useful back-up, while Conley and Hardy represent developing players who are unlikely to contribute much in 2015.

While the loss of Benjamin undoubtedly hurt the WR options, it only offered a boost at TE where Greg Olsen should be the biggest beneficiary. Already a top 5 TE, he could be well placed to become the third man. ASJ, Jordan Cameron Jordan and Miychaele Rivieria all offer decent depth.

Positional changes mean there’s a bit of a lack of balance at DE and DT – too many of the former and too few of the latter could lead to a few problems in selection and if Jordan Hill gets injured there could be real issues on the line, but there’s good depth at all other positions. This was one of the best defences in 2014 and will be looking to keep a seat at the top table in 2015. It’s not going to be number 1 or 2, but has a good chance of being number 3 on that list. The only problem could be how to pick the right players each week.

Verdict:

This roster has been reshaped into one of the stronger options in the league. On paper. Given the underperformance of AJ Green last year, there’s surely no chickens being counted in the Bombermen head office. But even if players perform only at the lower end of expectations, this team should be competing for playoffs. If Hill, Green, and Ryan all fire like the stars they can be and if defensive selection goes well, they could be competing for top honours.

Prediction:

7-6, playoffs on head-to-head, anything more might be asking too much. They don’t have the strength and depth of the very best teams but they stand a chance of hitting the big time. Another season over .500 is the minimum expectation.

2015 Commish Preview: DynaForOne Firebirds

August 28, 2015

Commish

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Team: DynaForOne Firebirds – Neil Hawke

2014 Record: 7-6, 10^th pick, Superb Owl Champions

Significant Additions:

Draft – Diral Green-Beckham (WR), Eric Kendricks (LB), Javoris Allen (RB)

Free Agency – Jonas Gray (RB),

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Frank Gore (RB), Charles Clay (TE), DeAndre Levy (LB), Martellus Bennett (TE), Julian Edleman (WR), Alec Ogletree (LB), Ron Parker (S), Da’Norris Searcy (S)

Significant Losses:

Retirement – Troy Polamalu (S)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Ryan Tannehill, QB), TY Hilton (WR)

Preview:

First of all, congratulations should be given to the Firebirds who were ridicuously dominant in the second half of the fantasy season, culminating in a massive score in the two-week Superb Owl contest. After the first four weeks of the season, DFO was the most consistent team and only scored below 190 points once.

In the regular season, AWE rated DFO has being worth 7.33 wins, just slightly over the 7 wins achieved, the smallest difference in the league. They had a 72% chance of reaching 7 wins, behind only the Losers and Kelkowski. They snuck into the playoffs despite losing on the last day of the regular season due to the Bombermen’s capitulation to Kelkowski, and while the Bombermen top-scored in week 14, no one can deny DFO’s playoff performance in which they ranked 2nd, 1st and 1st in scoring across the 3 weeks.

All that success was built on the offense – the defence only scored more points than the Dungeoneers and the Sadness – and so it was no surprise when Hawke moved to address this in the off-season. The question is did they give up too much in the quest for that extra defensive strength. With crazy people Russell Wilson and Philip Rivers on the roster, losing Ryan Tannehill was a good move – he was probably worth with Frank Gore or the 2.05 pick in the draft, the fact that both were received along with a couple of other pieces is exceptional business.

TY Hilton for, effectively, Alec Ogletree and a small bump up the draft is another matter. Ogletree is a very good option but the lack of consistency in defensive players scoring but it still raised some eyebrows. Now, if the drop from Hilton to Edelman is less than the gap between Ogletree and the replacement level player who would have made the roster then this has been well calculated but it’s a big risk.

Perhaps the most eyebrow raising move was the dispatching of Hill, a player who could make the leap into elite RB status in 2015, for a couple of older defensive pieces. Still the net gain across all the trades is probably fair if not an outright win.

All that said, Lynch, Anderson and Gore are an excellent running back triumvirate, while Julio Jones and Demaryius Thomas are possibly the best WR combo in the league. Sanu, Royal and Edelman should all contribute and, at tight end, they have perhaps the best combination of 4 players in the league. Unfortunately they can only play two at once.

On paper the defence certainly looks stronger than last year but as mentioned in prior previews, defensive depth can be a double edged sword with variable scoring not necessarily working well with difficult starting decisions. Equally, they’ve probably just jumped up to league average.

Verdict:

More depth on defence and less on offense. For me, I’ll take the depth at the more reliable positions, but with good management this could reap some big rewards. This is a team that can beat anyone on its day but in a stronger Tim Division they will be hard pushed to repeat. Another winning record is definitely achievable but how much more is in question.

Prediction:

7-6 and missing the playoffs on head-to-head. When teams are level it’s really difficult to know who will go through. My suspicion is that this team isn’t in the top 4 teams of the year, but with the way schedules and scoring go, that doesn’t necessarily mean they won’t make the playoffs. I doubt they’ll be as dominant as they were in the second half of the season but will still be a strong competitor nonetheless.

2015 Commish Preview: Dynasore Losers

August 27, 2015

Commish

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Team: Dynasore Losers – David Slater

2014 Record: 8-5, 8^th pick, defeated in the first round of the playoffs

Significant Additions:

Draft – Nelson Agholor (WR), Jameis Winston (QB), Sammie Coates (WR), Owamagbe Odighizuwa (DE)

Free Agency – none

Trade – none

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Jonathan Stewart (RB), Joe Flacco (QB), DeAndre Levy (LB), Lewis Kendrick (S)

Trade – Sheldon Richardson (DE)

Preview:

With $12 tied up in punters and kickers, the Losers have nearly three times as much money tied up in the real footballers than any other team, with three players on $3 or more, more than any other foot-based player in the league is receiving.

In 2014, the Losers clocked in 7th in punting points, more than 32 points behind Dyna Hard, the league leaders, and nearly 8 points off the league average. This obviously didn’t go down well in the corridors of Losers Central and so ace negotiators were dispatched with orders to sign Marquette King and Bryan Anger, the Hard punters in 2014, whatever the cost.That cost, as it turned out, was $6, 1% of the total cap and more than any other team is paying for their punters and kickers combined.

Anger has ranked 2nd, 1st and second in his last three years in the league, while King was 7th and then 1st in his two years so far. Loser’s GM David Slater will certainly be hoping that this level of performance continues, though both the Jaguars and the Raiders look to be improving on their performance over the last few years with better QB options and greater depth at receiver and, to a lesser extent, running back. If those offenses can get moving the points available from the punters will tail off and this move will prove to be a year too later.

Things look remarkably similar at kicker where the Losers have seen fit to offer a world record contract to Stephen Gostkowksi at $4 for 3 years with a $1 guarantee. Gostkowksi certainly represents good value for money, having finished 1st, 2nd and 1st over the past three years.

The Losers finished in 6th in terms of kicking points fielded in 2014, another 332 points off the lead where this time it was the Brees who fielded the league leading player the Losers targeted for poaching.

Justin Tucker was given only a $2 contract to back up Gostkowski and with his slowly decreasing perofrmance over the past 3 years you can see why. Tucker has fallen from 3rd to 6th to 9th amongst kickers in total points scored, and you know that the Losers won’t want to be relying on him too often.

Of course, when talking about kickers, one also has to consider what difference the rule changes will make this year. The PAT will now be taken from the 15 yard line where success drops by around 5% compared to the 2 yard line of old. That will mean fewer points available for kickers, with negatives being scored for misses. But in addition it may lead to more 2 point conversion attempts, reducing the scoring opportunities for kickers. As such, the 60 gain the Losers will have targeted may well not be available. All in all, this may have been a move made a year too later.*

Verdict:

There are undoubtedly some stars on this roster but a lack of depth on the offensive side of the ball may hinder the team. The defence certainly has strength but the random nature of defensive scoring means it can’t be counted on to win enough games. If the team gets the rub of the green, they could see a second consecutive run to the playoffs, otherwise it’ll be a case of looking towards the rookies developing to offer enough depth in future seasons. At the end of the day, the difference could lie in whether we see the Peter of 2013 and early 2014 or the Peter that finished 2014.

Prediction:

7-6 and in the mix to win the Division, but perhaps not strong enough to edge a team from Tim for a wild card. Being in the weaker Division means they could rack up enough wins there to mean results against Tim won’t matter and a playoff berth is secured, but I fear the lack of depth will result in a couple of losses due to bye weeks and a shock will come along at some point. At the end of the day they could be the number 2 seed in the playoffs by winning the Division or end up with the 4^th pick in the 2016 draft.

*Fun Fact: If this move had been made last year, and if all those 64 extra points had been scored in week 14, the Losers still wouldn’t have won their playoff semi-final against the Firebirds.

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