The NFL Draft: Part Two

So this is where the excitement comes – running backs. That’s true particularly this year, with a crop of varied and interesting talents. But before we deal with the individuals, let’s just quickly recap what I said in part one, about the draft value of Running Backs.

Running back is a deep position, and one that offers an immediate reward – all of the top ten rookies since 2007 at RB scored enough points in their first three years to crack the top ten over the last three years, in fact, all of the top 19 would have cracked the top 19 (and the 20th only misses out by a couple of points). However, draft position isn’t a great guide, with the top selected RB only making the top 10 once, and top three picks only accounting for 4 spots out of 10, with only two of the top ten were selected in round 1 (the top 2). And there’s a much bigger drop off between the best (800 points) and the 10th best (500) at the position that at either of the other two main offensive positions.

What that doesn’t cover is the longevity, the variable performances (Lacy for example, is one of the top ten rookies over the first three years, but at this point he’s pretty much a bum, who’s mainly drawing interest because he *might* do something again) and the meh-ness of a lot of the candidates who make the top ten in the bottom part of it, rather than at the elite level. Also, it does cover, but bears repeating, that the NFL draft position is not a particularly good guide to success, essentially making running back a profitable crapshoot. For anyone interested, here’s a list of rookie running backs over their first three seasons.

Anyway, on with the class – in less detail than the QBs, hopefully, as there’s a lot more of them..

Leonard Fournette (LSU) The consensus top RB in the draft, hardly a surprise as the guy is a serious slab of beef at 240 lbs in only a 6’0 frame. Unlike most big backs, he’s not slow though. In fact he’s downright fast, not just fast for a power guy. His 4.51 40 was only a couple of tenths slower than both Cook (210) and McCaffrey (202), with only Mixon and Freeman (both 233 and 4.45 / 4.46 respectively) showing a similar combination of speed and size. What they don’t have though is the same power level. This is not a runner you want to be waving an arm at, as he’s going to brush it off with disdain. I’ve picked the game against Auburn in 2015 as a decent showcase, though I was tempted to use the 2016 equivalent (I didn’t in the end, because I didn’t feel like it was fair to use a game from 2016, during which he battled ankle trouble all year). I feel like across these two you get a decent microcosm of the best and worst of him. One of the most startling and attractive elements is his speed, and the way he breaks arm tackles like he’s brushing off spider webs. And once he breaks loose of the bigger guys at the line, he will be a nightmare for most safeties or linebackers to try and bring down. However, in both tapes you see his tendency to try to break tackles with strength, rather than elusiveness. I mentioned above his 2016 season being hampered by ankle trouble, and I don’t see that injuries aren’t going to be a big concern for whoever ends up drafting him. Focusing on the 2016 game, though evident in the 2015 game also, there’s two other concerns that shine through. He’s not a patient runner, he runs in straight lines, at daylight and he doesn’t have great vision. He’s also an absolutely atrocious blocker in pass protection (and not too good in the passing game), and that might see him regularly off the field in scoring situations.

Auburn were one of the better defences (less so in 2015), and the SEC is not for the faint-hearted in general, but I would also be concerned about his performances against Alabama – in 2015 he had 19 carries for 31 and in 2016 17 for 35. A lot of that is due to the fact Alabama’s defensive front over-whelmed pretty much every offensive line, but it does throw up a warning flag for fantasy owners drafting Fournette. If he ends up in the wrong spot, behind a bad line, he could be a pretty spectacular bust – that lack of elusiveness, low patience and poor vision then become significant problems and likely see him regularly stopped behind the line. He’s consistently linked to Carolina, and while they invested fairly heavily in their line, they didn’t invest particularly well – both in terms of the quality of the players and not fixing problem spots. I’m not sure I’d be happy to spend a potential #1 pick on him if he ends up there. Better that he falls to someone like Philly in the middle of the first.

He’s drawn comparisons with AP, not because he likes beating children but because of that freak combination of power and speed, and that’s not unfair on that level. However, AP was a much more competent runner, with better vision and much more elusiveness and patience. Assuming he doesn’t land somewhere terrible think somewhere on a spectrum between Alfred Morris and AP, probably about 66% towards AP.

Dalvin Cook (FSU) Has taken a bit of a beating for his combine performance. His 40 was fine, if unspectacular, but his 3-cone drill and shuttle runs were outright terrible. He did however perform fine in the vert and was strong in the bench press. What does that tell us? That he’s not got a career as a dancer or a sprinter, but neither of those are the end of the world for a player who could be the first back off the board this weekend (unless he had his heart set on going on Dancing with the Stars). Cook’s a workhorse – not as freakish as Fournette, but he’s been more productive with a higher workload than him, and he’s a better weapon in the passing game, though not someone you’d call gifted in that area. Where with Fournette you can point to the peaks (vs Auburn in 2015) and the troughs (vs Alabama), there’s a steadiness to Cook – his “worst” games came in the middle of 2016 where he was carrying a prodigious workload (30+ touches a game) and was ‘only’ averaging between 5 and 6 yards a rush. This game against Miami from this year is from the midst of that run, but highlights why teams will be tempted to take him early – he just reliably churns out those 4-5 yard gains, hitting the hole, and when a crease opens up, he can go through it quickly enough (though he doesn’t have the explosiveness you see with Fournette, who finds another gear when that space appears). He does get lost in pass protection a little, but his reliability and versatility make him a three-down back.

His prodigious workload would be one of my concerns were I in an NFL front office. Just how much wear and tear has he picked up at FSU, particularly in relation to his two shoulder injuries could end up defining not just his draft position, but his longevity and impact. There are other red flags, and he’s not a player who’s avoided trouble, but the overall picture is of a guy who wants to play football, and does his best to avoid trouble. The stories about him from the Senior Bowl don’t ring true, and seem a lot like last year’s Laremy Tunsil drama – the work of a vindictive third party who’s perhaps playing a longer game of trying to scare other/future prospects into accepting his offer of help by showing what happens if they don’t. Ultimately, this stuff doesn’t help, but a lot of teams ‘don’t have player x on their draft board because of concerns’ when really they just mean ‘we have no chance of drafting him’ or ‘we have no need at this position’. And it really doesn’t matter what 31 other teams think, as long as one team likes you. As for comparisons and fantasy value… I think Fournette is more your lottery ticket, potential top three back, but Cook is the reliable every down back who’ll churn out top ten seasons, like Frank Gore or Jeremy Hill. Well worth the top three pick he’ll almost certainly command in the Dynabowl.

Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) is probably my favourite running back in the draft this year. He’s not as strong as Cook or Fournette, but he’s such a versatile weapon in both the passing and rushing games. I am genuinely excited to see what he can do in the NFL. Let’s start by dispelling some of the weird ideas people have got – he’s not a receiver. He’s a running back, and he’s more than capable of carrying the load, as his 2000 yard, 340 carry 2015 season showed. It’s lost among the many stats and records he broke on his way to breaking Barry Sanders NCAA all-purpose yardage record in 2015 as well as being the leader in that category again in 2016, that the majority of his work is still done on the ground. McCaffrey wowed at the combine in both the 3-cone and shuttle drills, and his quick feet and ability to make guys miss was fully on show in the PAC-12 title game against USC when he scored rushing, receiving and passing touchdowns on a day when he had over 450 all-purpose yards. His lack of physical strength was demonstrated by a fairly pathetic bench press performance, and teams might have some concern about him as a three-down back, but on the right team they could just split him out as a slot receiver on some of those plays and bring in a fullback to protect instead.

It’s unlikely he goes off the board before Fournette or Cook in either the NFL or a fantasy draft, but McCaffrey is the guy I’d most want in fantasy leagues, he’s just productive in all phases of the game, and always a threat to break a big play, and depending on where he lands (the Saints, the Giants) he could easily find himself catapulted to the top of fantasy draft boards. It’s a little obvious to make the comparison with Sproles or Bush, and it doesn’t quite fit as while he’s a much better runner, he’s not quite as dangerous in the open field. I think if you start thinking of Shady McCoy, but temper your expectations down from quite that height, you’re pretty close. I mentioned the Saints and Giants, but realistically it’s very hard to see him falling past Philly (and I wouldn’t rule out the Ravens either), but if he does, I can see the Broncos aggressively moving up for him. Suffice to say, where with Cook I made the point it only takes one team to fall in love, with McCaffrey it seems like many have, and it may be a question of who is willing to be the most aggressive to secure him.

Alvin Kamara (Tennessee) is the sign that we’re definitely into the second cut of receivers. Originally recruited by Alabama, injuries and better players saw him essentially redundant there, and he ended up at Tennessee after a year in junior college. Two years of consistent play and here we are. Just shy of 2,000 yards from scrimmage despite a relatively small number of touches, and a sizeable chunk of scoring plays. He’s a versatile weapon, but has little to separate him from the rest of the running back pack – he’s not strong like Fournette, agile like McCaffrey nor quick, like Foreman or Mixon. He’s just a solidly productive back in both the passing and the running game, and in the mid to late second round could end up being a relatively good pick for a productive offence looking for a versatile weapon (hello Green Bay). His fantasy value will very much be tied to where he lands, but assuming he doesn’t end up on an outright terrible team (SF, Cleveland) or stuck behind a better back as a useful piece of a committee (like New England’s), he’ll be a nice addition for whoever drafts him. I’d probably prefer to get him early in the second in the Dynabowl, but I doubt he’ll drop that far, even as the fifth or sixth RB off the board. This game against a very good Texas A&M defence (including presumptive #1 pick Myles Garrett) is easily the best of his college career, and highlights his low to the ground running style and ability to break off a big run. I made a point of talking down Mitch Trubisky for being a reliable and unspectacular QB option, but that’s because reliable and unspectacular QBs with no particular strengths or glaring weaknesses aren’t good for fantasy owners (nor are they particularly good for NFL teams). Running backs who are average at everything however are much more enticing, and unspectacular reliability is a solid foundation for a low RB1/high RB2 that you’d be very happy to get with a late first / early second pick. It’s possible that he’ll end up as a complementary piece to a main back, like Jeremy Hill in Cincy. At which point he becomes a very low value pick, considering his low upside against the cost of the pick.

D’Onta Foreman (Texas) led the NCAA with over 2000 yards in 2016, emerging from the depths of the Texas depth chart to have a spectacular season. He’s not an exciting prospect at the next level though, as there’s really not much to his game. He’s a bruising runner, with no real elusiveness or guile, and he’s no threat in the passing game. He’ll be a solid pick up in the mid-rounds of the NFL draft, but in fantasy he’ll probably end up over-drafted. He might emerge from a committee or because of injuries, but as he enters the draft he’s most likely seen as a committee piece, because he’s simply not going to see play in any passing situation (except as a blocker). Because he’s probably the fifth or sixth best back in the draft, I’d recommend steering clear unless he gets a very sweet landing spot in the NFL (Oakland, Washington would be good). Where he could excel is if he gets a job behind a good offensive line and emerges as a clear starter. At Texas he displayed good patience to follow his blocks, and despite what I said about his lack of elusiveness he’s still capable of cutting and following the flow of the play. While he lacks explosive acceleration, that’s not the same as him lacking speed, as he displayed with his quick 40 time. He needs a few steps to get going, but when he does he’s plenty quick enough, especially considering his 233lb frame. One thing he does have in his favour is nobody will doubt his durability, nor his ability to be a workhorse back, and the consistency of his performance in 2016 will probably catch the eye of some scouts. Anyway, here he is against Oklahoma State.

Right, that just leaves two main guys left, team mates Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon (Oklahoma). While there’s a lot of other backs left, and notable ones (Pumphrey, Gallman for example) there needs to be a line drawn somewhere and this feels like about the right spot – somewhere in the 4th round of the NFL draft.

So, starting with Samaje Perine – a three year starter on a perenially competitive Oklahoma team, Perine absolutely smashed the bench press at the combine and that’s ultimately what you need to know about him. Everything I just said about Foreman applies again here – he’s nowhere near the quickness of Foreman or Fournette though, he’s just a classic big, strong back. Like Brandon Jacobs, only not afraid of being tackled. Perine probably won’t do much at the next level, I don’t honestly see him cracking the top twenty rookies, but he could end up being one of those breakout guys – like Rob Kelley – who win your fantasy league for you if he ends up on a team with a shaky depth chart, or injuries bite hard. As for fantasy picks, he’ll get taken, but I wouldn’t bother unless he lands in a spot like SF or Cleveland where he’ll be a default starter, as otherwise he’s at best he’s a handcuff to your main guy.

And last of all… Joe Mixon so let’s start, as with everyone else, of a video of him in action. It’s near impossible to predict where he’ll land. I mean, he’s being only McCaffrey as an all-purpose threat in this draft and in college football last year, so it’s not a question of his on-field production, he’d potentially be in the mix with Cook, Fournette and McCaffrey at the top of this draft on footballing talent alone.

But this wasn’t the only incident involving him, with his suspension for an incident (abusive and violent – though not physically – towards a female parking attendant) this season, as well as his suspension for a year for the punch in the video. Ultimately teams may feel this is a ticking time-bomb and the negativity around him doesn’t warrant the pick. Let’s face it, the league hates controversy and nobody has yet signed Kaepernick when all he did was kneel down. Ray Rice and Ray McDonald haven’t played again, while Greg Hardy also finds himself on the black-list, though it took longer than it should have for him to get there. It’s really awkward, because talent tends to trump controversy in most cases (Tyreek Hill got drafted after all), but the video of the incident is on another level entirely, worse even than the Rice one. There is also a question about where the league will fall on this, whether Mixon will face the wrath of Goodell for something that happened long before he entered the league. Whether Goodell even has the authority to punish someone for that. Either way, it seems likely there’s a TMZ element to this that will turn a number of teams off completely, particularly those involved in abuse scandals before (49ers, Ravens, Panthers), but at some point, the risk will be outweighed by the reward. As with Carroo last year, he’s not a player I’d be drafting in fantasy, no matter how far he falls. He’s a cunt, and so are you if you draft him. Talent-wise though, he’s a top six pick, and that’s where he’ll go.

The 2017 NFL Draft: Part One

In the past couple of years I’ve focused on doing a preview of the prospects post-draft, but too often that comes down to talking about the player as a piece of a depth chart, instead of as a prospect. It also feels awkward as I feel like I’m giving away my own draft board, so this time I’m going to focus more on the prospect, and talk about what sort(s) of situation might suit, or not suit them. I’m also going to look at some wider trends in performance.

Anyway, let’s start with the most important position in the NFL, and the one that sits at the top of your fantasy roster – the Quarterback.

Let’s take a quick look at what sort of value a QB can bring. Here’s a list of the first three years for QBs entering the league since 2007, if you total up their fantasy points from those stats (approximately, doesn’t include 2pt conversions and fumbles) then the top 6 rank as follows:

Newton (995), Luck (938), Wilson (887), Dalton (763), Bortles (762), Carr (739) with Tannehill, Ryan, Griffin and Flacco following them. As a rough guide, that 995 points for Newton would be equivalent to having the 2nd ranked QB on average over the last three seasons (who the second ranked QB is will potentially change each season). In fact, Newton, Luck and Wilson’s total points are all higher than the 5th ranked QBs in each of the last three years, despite the fact those individuals change each year and should in theory perform better than an individual who might get hurt, have a down year or whatever (even accounting for the fact those averages exclude week 17, and include fumbles etc I’d still expect them to be better than an individual).

How does that compare with other positions? Well, running back goes deeper. All of the top ten rookies since 2007 at RB scored enough points in their first three years to crack the top ten over the last three years, in fact, all of the top 19 would have cracked the top 19 (and the 20th only misses out by a couple of points). That perhaps shouldn’t come as a surprise given that longevity is the exception, rather than the rule, at the position and that these players have much more college wear and tear on them than others. There are some significant caveats here though – draft position is relevant for QBs. 8 of the top 10 were amongst the first three QBs off the board in their drafts, with Wilson – in a deep draft at the position (4 top 10 players) – and Dalton – in a really bad year for QB scouts (behind Locker, Gabbert and Ponder) – the 5th QBs selected. At RB, this is very different, with the top selected RB only making the top 10 once, and the top three only accounting for 4 spots. In fact, only two of the top ten were selected in round 1 (the top 2). There’s also a much bigger gap between the best ranked at RB and the 10th ranked – 300 points (against a max of 800), compared with 250 at QB (against a max of 1000), so it’s easier to hit the top 10 at RB.

At WR is where things get really messy – as at QB, only 3 of the top 10 rookies would make the top 10 WRs, unlike QB though, only Odell Beckham would do more than creep in at the bottom of it. Six of the top 10 were amongst the top three receivers off the board, so draft position is a reasonable indicator, but being first off the board is actually not much of an indication of anything, with only two first pick receivers (Green and Megatron) finding a spot in the top 20 rookies. And being highly drafted doesn’t help either with 5 out of 8 top 10 overall picks missing out on the top 30 rookies. Perhaps this isn’t a surprise, WRs can be slow burners and develop late, while they’re being compared with players who’ve learned a system and run a fully developed route tree, as well as having established relationships with their QBs, though being outperformed by other rookies isn’t particularly good. However, in terms of making an extension evaluation down the line, it’s pretty clear that drafting a receiver is going to give a similar reward to drafting a QB, but without the same sort of confidence in the evaluation of the player by NFL teams. However, it’s still most likely that teams will go for a WR over a QB on draft day. In term of spread, the top 10 have a spread of about 190 points with a maximum of 700. Obviously, WR is a deeper position though, and all of the top 20 rookies outscored the average score of the 30th WR, so they’d still be starting quality players, where anyone outside the top 3 QBs would only be fit to cover byes and injuries (ignoring the future development possibilities). The other thing to bear in mind here is that it’s a much deeper position, so the top 20 receivers represents only 1 in 4 of the rookies in the period examined.

But enough about how a QB pick compares with other positions… let’s take a look at this year’s class, starting with the likely top four picks – Watson, Kizer, Trubisky and Mahomes.

It’s not easy to predict the order of these four picks, or indeed where they’ll all go, though I’d be surprised if any remained by the end of the second round. Despite some QB needy teams at the top of the draft, and the importance of the position, it’s unlikely any of the players go in the top six. The depth at the position is part of this, as last year’s two prospects were no less flawed, and there weren’t fewer teams with needs at QB, but an overall weaker draft and worse depth pushed them to the top of the board, despite some serious issues. Anyway, with no real order to fall back on, let’s go with the strength of their college resume.

Deshaun Watson (Clemson) There’s an established narrative around Watson at this point – lacks arm strength, makes some bad throws, has probably the best intangibles of any QB in the draft though. That’s perhaps a little unfair and over-accentuates the negatives. He definitely makes some bad throws, he just sometimes doesn’t see or read coverage correctly, and that results in his high interception count. He also tends to get the ball out too fast, throwing off his back foot and soft-balling passes, which is possibly why there’s a question mark over his velocity and arm strength (although he’s built like Bridgewater more than Newton, so maybe he just doesn’t have that much arm strength), and that poor footwork and low velocity combine to make some very interceptable passes. All of which said, he plays in the ACC, not the PAC-12 and there’s been some good NFL QBs who’ve not looked elite in that conference. Russell Wilson started in the ACC with NC State and hardly set the world alight, with 26 interceptions (Watson had 32) on a similar number of passes, before going to Wisconsin for his Senior year and lighting it up, throwing only 4. Winston (at FSU) threw 28 in 27 games (Watson’s 32 are in 38), also in the ACC and also going to two national championships, but in his case he was throwing much more aggressively downfield than Clemson do. On the non-athletic side, however, Waston is a slam dunk pick. Elevating his team to back-to-back championship games, and producing his best performance in those games, against the best team and best defence in the college game. Perhaps, never more evident than in the defeat in the 2015 final.

He’d be a great pick for a team with a decent defence who can overcome his occasional bad throws, but who desperately need an offensive leader – the Jets and the Bills jump out more than say the Cards or the Texans as a good fit then, and the Broncos (depending on how they feel about Siemian and Lynch) might be a suprise contender where Watson could play with a great D and develop into a true star, as Wilson has in Seattle. Much like Wilson, one of the strengths of Watson’s game is his ability to react to pressure, roll out of the pocket, find space and make a throw, and while he might not end up being as good a pure passer as say Mariota, he offers more dynamism, toughness and that ability to produce with his feet might just make him a fantasy viable option if he can cut down on the bad plays. For a QB-needy team, he’s worth a mid-round pick, just because his upside with his feet make him a potential starter down the line.

Mitch Trubisky (North Carolina) Let’s be clear here, I’m not going to be particularly kind to Trubisky. It’s not that he looks bad statistically (college stats don’t mean much in terms of conversion to the NFL), in fact, his stats don’t look massively dissimilar to Watson in some ways – virtually idential passer efficiency and completion percentages, and a similar ypa. He’s thrown less than half the passes, but only a third of Watson’s interceptions (both playing in the ACC), although also throwing less than half of the TDs, and offering little in the running game. It’s more a question of where’s the excitement, the *thing* that makes him someone to get excited about. He took over an 11-3 team, out-performed Marquise Williams on a personal level, and finished 8-5 with a bowl loss, leading a team who started as high as 15th (and never outperformed that ranking) to 30th in the final rankings. I know the college success doesn’t lead to NFL success, and college failure doesn’t translate to NFL failure either, but there’s something very bland about Trubisky’s college career. No bowl win, a loss to rivals Duke, no signature wins, defeats by 3 of the 5 top 25 teams they faced, including Stanford in the Sunbowl, and a very mediocre schedule (mostly conference games, with defeats in 2 out of the 3 non-conference games against other power 5 teams, and no game against Louisville or Clemson, the best two teams in the ACC), three games against top 25 defences but two defeats in those and easily his least impressive performance against Virginia Tech in probably the biggest game they played all year (aside from the bowl loss).

Simply put, he’s a mediocre candidate, promoted to the top of many mocks because there’s nothing significantly offensive that pundits can mark him down for. I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the first QB off the board, but I’d also not be surprised if he was third or fourth either, just because he’s the equivalent of eating vanilla ice cream in a magnolia room while listening to Ed Sheeran, and any team evaluating him probably fell asleep at the sheer boringness they encountered. As a player, he doesn’t have exceptional arm strength, it’s not questionable, like Watson’s, but not particularly notable either. He’s neither inaccurate, nor accurate. He’s OK under pressure, moving and buying time, but he doesn’t scramble or make plays with his feet, his mechanics aren’t perfect, and his footwork on throws could use some work. He’s played almost exclusively out of the shotgun and pistol, in a simple zone-read, so he’s not NFL ready in that sense, and there’s no cleverness to his play, locking on to and staring down his targets. Unlike Watson or Mahomes there’s no real players you can point to and say he’s got a bit of Cam Newton, or Russell Wilson as there’s just not that much tape to look at and no obvious comparisons. I’d guess just for his sheer bland, inoffensiveness and total lack of excitement there’s Andy Dalton, and for his total lack of anything worth getting excited about in his college career there’s Matt Ryan, but ultimately trying to compare him or project him to the NFL is going to be really tough, as a result, I wouldn’t recommend spending a pick on him in a fantasy draft, no matter where he lands. Anyway, here he is absolutely stinking the place out against Virginia Tech, with bad throws and bad decisions galore against one of the better defences he played.

Patrick Mahomes II (Texas Tech) I don’t really know if Texas or ND were worse this year, let’s just settle on saying neither will be selling commemorative DVDs of their seasons. Mahomes displaced Davis Webb (we’ll get to him later) midway through 2014 and held the job at Texas Tech for two and a half years. There’s clear progression and development over that time, adding more TDs, improving his accuracy and cutting down on the interceptions. However there’s no real improvement to Texas Tech. Unlike Trubisky, I’m not putting that on Mahomes, who had to contend with the worst defence in the entirety of FBS football this year, yet somehow managed to go 5-7 with a team who conceded an average of 550 yards and 45 points a game. As a result, a lot of their scorelines look more like they belong more on Cricinfo than a football game, but they were fun to follow. And that’s something you can certainly reflect on Mahomes himself. He’s a gunslinger in the Favre model, feeling his way through games and defences, rather than having a carefully scripted plan that he sticks to. That’s probably not going to be entirely popular with NFL teams, but it does mean that when plays break down he’s not going to be afraid to improvise and make things happen – although not with his feet, he’s not much of a rusher/scrambler. That can count against him, with the odd bad decision – usually throwing late trying to make something happen, instead of throwing it away – but he has probably the best arm strength of the top candidates and good touch and placement, as befits the son of a former MLB player, and a kid who played baseball himself (even being drafted by the Tigers).

He didn’t take a lot of snaps under centre, like Trubisky, he worked mainly from the shotgun, and the air raid offence at Texas Tech is one of the most QB friendly in all of football, so he’s definitely not pro-ready, basically. But… and it’s an important but, there’s a lot to like, and a lot that can be worked on. This isn’t like Watson’s arm-strength issues, that are probably going to dog him all his career. Mahomes has the scope to improve, assuming he has the right attitude to do so. Most of all, he’s a tough competitor, playing through some pretty tough hits and injuries. Which is probably for the best as he has all the pocket awareness of a tackling dummy. If he can learn to read and feel pressure (and know when to throw it away, or get it out fast), he could be a top fantasy QB, particularly if he ends up in the right spot – behind Roethlisberger or Carson in Pittsburgh or Arizona, in an offence with playmakers who like to be aggressive, and won’t be scared of his tendency to be a gunslinger. He’s a stash and see, wherever he lands, but don’t be too surprised if he ends up being the best fantasy option in this draft, and even if he isn’t, you’ll have had the fun of watching him play. Anyway, here he is setting an NCAA all-time record with 819 passing yards against Oklahoma

DeShone Kizer (Notre Dame) There was a point in 2016 where Kizer was the presumptive number one QB, on one of the best teams in football. Then they actually played some games, and it became very clear, very fast that Notre Dame stunk and that Kizer was not going to have the breakout season many expected. Perhaps those expectations were unfair, Notre Dame had lost a lot of talent to the NFL (Ronnie Stanley, Will Fuller, CJ Prosise being just some of the players who left), but in Josh Adams, Equanimious St Brown and Torii Hunter Jr they weren’t exactly left with a bare cupboard on offence either. Kizer did improve – adding more TDs, and cutting down his interceptions, but doing so by cutting down the distance on his passes, and despite this losing accuracy. That’s not a great combo, but it’s not entirely on him. Much like Trubisky, I have the concern that the coaches working with him every day didn’t seem to be sold on him. ND did stick by Kizer, but Kelly never seemed totally convinced.

So why are teams so interested in a guy who has easily the worst statistical record of any of the top four candidates? Kizer is probably the best athlete, and the closest to the physical shape and build teams look for in a QB, he’s just a natural athlete, he’ll be a mobile QB, comfortable in the zone-read offence, but he’s capable of more than that – he’s got good pocket presence and he keeps calm and stands tall even as the pocket starts to crumble. That’s mostly a positive, but it does also dovetail with his biggest weakness – he holds onto the ball too long, not taking on passes at times that are there to be made. That’s not a killer for the modern NFL QB, as taking the sack is definitely better than making a bad throw and turning it over, but it’s also a signal that he can hesitate or be put off a throw by a DB, which could be problematic. As for his fantasy prospects, despite being a great athlete, he’s not a Kaepernick or a Newton who’s going to be better with his feet than his arm. It’s early to say how his career will play out, but perhaps the best comparison might be last year’s surprise package, Dak Prescott. Naturally athletic, far from stellar accuracy in college, but careful with the ball, capable of making enough throws and likely to be a success if he lands in the right spot with a good, balanced offence around him that doesn’t require him to do too much. I’d expect Kizer to be the most successful of the four QBs over the first three years before his owner needs to make an evaluation, but I think his long-term ceiling is probably low-end top 10 at best, and he could simply end up an Alex Smith type of QB, who’s solid, but never someone you’d be happy to have as a fantasy starter in a ten man league. Good fits for Kizer would be somewhere like Houston or the New York (Giants) – I just don’t trust him to elevate a team like Cleveland or San Francisco – but I think he could be a very effective fit on a team with a lot of talent around him.

There’s no standout tape of Kizer, so I’ve settled for the 2015 Fiesta bowl game against Ohio State – he played well enough in a loss against a very good team featuring NFL talent like Bosa and Lee on defence.

 

Right, that’s the main four covered in depth, so a quick scan of a couple of other candidates:

Davis Webb lost the job to Mahomes at Texas Tech due to injury and never won it back. Transferred to Cal this year after Goff went to the NFL. He’s not terrible, but given Mahomes was clearly considered better at Texas and that Goff has been an unmitigated disaster in LA, I’d not be in a hurry to go back to that well and draft a guy who was objectively worse than him in pretty much every category on the same team. That he’s considered the consensus 5th best option in this draft is a clear sign of how quickly it falls off a cliff at this point. Not a fantasy relevant option.

Brad Kaaya is what you draft if you wanted Kizer, but didn’t have a pick for him. He’s not quite as athletically developed and he’s even more hesitant – especially under pressure, where Kizer is quite strong – but I’d take him over Webb, he played in a much more pro-style offence in his final year at Miami, and put up good, if not stellar numbers in it. He should transition to the NFL and he could be a surprise success story, like Dak Prescott. More likely though he’s not going to be able to live with the looks and pressure NFL co-ordinators throw at him and he’ll end up with a decent career as a scout team QB after a brief and disastrous stint as a starter following injury. That’s probably harsh on Kaaya – Miami aren’t an elite team, and spent time in the top 25 this year before a four-game losing streak ended that. The thing is, that streak was against some good teams, and they were a team who won comfortably when they won (including their bowl game), but lost narrowly in three out of the four defeats. Kaaya’s line is not too different from Trubisky’s or Watson’s, coming out of the same ACC, and practically identical to Prescott’s, so it’s not like there’s not something there to work with. I’d not be spending a pick on him, even late, nor spending a taxi squad spot on him but if he lands in the right spot, he might be worth keeping a watching brief on as a future free agent or in-season pick up if he ends up in a starting role.

Chad Kelly is only included in this write up so I can make a joke about how if he actually gets drafted he might get drunk and send a third DM to Mia Khalifa, which will get published and we’ll all get to lol at the fratboy getting turned down by a porn star three times. Seriously though, Kelly has a small chance of making the transition to the NFL, he’s shown some stuff at Ole Miss, particularly in the last two seasons against Alabama. He’s just not shown it consistently enough, and he’s unlikely to hear his name until the last day of the draft. In the right spot, behind a shaky starter he might surprise, but it’s definitely not worth spending a pick to find out.

 

There’s some other candidates, like Peterman, but they’re not going to be fantasy relevant, unless they end up drafted by a team who’ve a clear and obvious need for a QB and will be looking to start him early. Even then I’d hold back – ultimately, they’re not going to be fantasy relevant year one barring a major surprise, so you’ll be able to see how they develop and make a play for them in free agency in 2018.

2017 Free Agency Review: Tim

Kelkowski

Drew Brees (NOS, QB) – $35, 1 year
Brandon Coleman (NOS, WR) – $1, 1 year
Rishard Matthews (TEN, WR) – $17, 4 years
Terrelle Pryor (WAS, WR) – $25, 3 years
Eric Decker (NYJ, WR) – $20, 2 years
Gary Barnidge (CLE, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dennis Pitta (BAL, TE) – $1, 1 year
Dont’a Hightower (NEP, LB) – $8, 4 years
Nick Perry (GBP, LB) – $4, 4 years
AJ Bouye (JAC, CB) – $3, 3 years

If there was one team that you should really look at all the small deals for it’s Kelkowski as they seem to have half the league on $1, 1 year deals.  They did make a few splashes in free agency though with big money going on Brees, Pryor, Decker and Matthews.  This year could be the year that Brees drops off the cliff but if it isn’t Kelkowski have addressed one of their big areas of need for at least one season and the short term nature of the deal obviously minimises the risk.  With three mid-priced WRs added to the team it’s apparent where else Kelkowski thought they needed to strengthen and, to be fair, if they hadn’t they’d have been relying on Randall Cobb and Will Fuller for the entirety of 2017.  All three deals are for guys who seem to now be the number 1 option on their team but there is uncertainty about the standing of both Decker and Matthews in the depth chart so time will tell.  Barnidge and Pitta are both notable cheap deals.  Each has their question marks but both could end the season as solid TE1s and for deals with no risk attached that’s good business.

On the defensive side of the ball I like the Hightower deal as he could be a top tier linebacker if his health would ever let him.  At $8 that’s a risk worth taking.  Perry is also a good bet at that price.  He may disappear back to obscurity but it’s no big loss if he does and he showed his ceiling last season.  With AJ Bouye you’re paying for his 2016 season and now that he’s in a new team I would have no faith in him to produce again.  For $3 though who cares?

Dynablaster Bombermen

Chris Thompson (WAS, RB) – $6, 3 years
DeSean Jackson (TBB, WR) – $12, 3 years
Michael Crabtree (OAK, WR) – $24, 3 years
Larry Fitzgerald (ARI, WR) – $8, 2 years
Cameron Wake (MIA, DE) – $11, 2 years
Yannick Ngakoue (JAX, DE) – $14, 5 years
Chandler Jones (ARI, LB) – $30, 4 years
Zach Brown (WAS, LB) – $13, 5 years
Eric Weddle (BAL, S) – $2, 3 years

Benjamin Hendy was a busy man in the off-season and the Bombermen have gone hard at the free agent market, preparing themselves for a big push for the Owl in 2017.  On offence the monster move is Michael Crabtree and it looks like a good one.  The money is not to be sniffed at but you’re talking about paying Crabtree like a WR3.  He was that in 2015 and was a top-end WR2 in 2016 so unless you think he’s going to take a step back in 2017 then he looks a safe investment.  The Raiders could draft a WR and impinge on his value somewhat but with so many problems on their defence it would be a surprise.  DeSean Jackson is even better value at $12.  Sure, he’s boom-bust but that is a pittance for a player who will win your matchup for you some weeks.  He’s the second target to Mike Evans in Tampa but Jackson is not a player who needs high volume to get it done and the B-Men won’t be relying on him as anything more than a WR3 at best.  Fitzgerald is a solid pick-up, his ceiling is low but his floor is high.  Chris Thompson is a bit of a lottery ticket and the price looks a dollar or two high for me but he was the most competent of Washington’s backs last season so he’s worth a look.

I’m less enamoured of the defensive moves the Bombermen have made, however.  Ngakoue’s price is defensible, if not cheap, but the length of the contract represents a risk to me as he’s much more likely to underperform than overperform at that money.  Zach Brown too is being paid quite a lot based on one season of production in a different team.  Cameron Wake’s deal sits in the middle, not bad value for a guy who can top-score when he’s on form, but he’s getting old now and has injury concerns.  I would rather have had Robert Quinn at $8 than Wake at $11, personally.  Coming back to the good end of the spectrum though we have Chandler Jones at $30 (expensive but he is a tippy-top linebacker) and Eric Weddle (a very steady S1/2 for a good price).  One thing I absolutely cannot fault Hendy on though is the aggressive way he has moved to fill his needs.  The Bombermen don’t have much by the way of draft picks this season so he needed to get his team in shape to challenge by the end of this window and, putting aside an overpay or two, it looks like mission accomplished.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Dak Prescott (DAL, QB) – $29, 4 years
LeGarrette Blount (FA, RB) – $16, 2 years
Jonathan Stewart (CAR, RB) – $8, 2 years
Adam Thielen (MIN, WR) – $14, 3 years
Kenny Stills (MIA, WR) – $9, 3 years
Jared Cook (OAK, TE) – $10, 3 years
Nick Fairley (NOS, DT) – $25, 3 years

Let’s start here with the good stuff.  Neil Hawke’s running backs were less a stable than a rotten manger and some action was definitely required.  There is a lot of talk of Carolina being the landing spot for Leonard Fournette in the draft but until that speculation bears fruit then Jonathan Stewart is the main man there and $8 looks good value.  Even if he ends up in a committee or as a handcuff it’s not a terrible deal.  LeGarrette Blount, on the other hand, does look like one.  Yet to find a team, Blount’s value was entirely tied to his position in New England and if he doesn’t end up back there then the chances of him being worth that money are remote.  At least it’s only a short deal.  Kenny Stills isn’t bad value at $9, he could easily prove to be Miami’s second threat behind Jarvis Landry this season and their main deep option so he has a good shot to outperform that figure. I can only assume that Neil has mistaken Adam Thielen for someone else.  The #33 WR in 2016, Thielen scored a quarter of his points in one week and seemed to end up as a target for the Vikings by accident.  I can’t help but feel that money could have been better invested somewhere else.  Jared Cook has landed in a good spot in Oakland but $10 is a big overpay for a player who has promised much throughout his career but delivered little.  He was the #40 TE last season due to injury and whilst he flashed when fit I don’t know how much competition the Birds would have had for him at $5, let alone $10.  Dak Prescott is just nuts.  In a league where QBs are ten a penny Prescott should maybe be earning half what he is.  Last season he finished 6th, sure, but the question is one of repeatability.  To my mind you need to see a QB have more than 1 season performing like that before you pay him like he’s worth it.

On defence the only significant move that the Firebirds made was the addition of Nick Fairley to play alongside Geno Atkins at DT.  Unfortunately this is another huge overpay in my opinion.  Fairley is a player with a history of playing well for one season then dropping off the radar and he has just scored elite money in the Dynabowl.  There are very few DTs in the league who are worth paying over $20 for and Nick Fairley isn’t one of them.  Trust me, I own another of them.

Champions of the Sun

Ryan Tannehill (MIA, QB) – $7, 3 years
Danny Woodhead (BAL, RB) – $10, 2 years
Jack Doyle (IND, TE) – $8, 2 years
Mario Addisson (CAR, DE) – $3, 3 years
Kiko Alonso (MIA, LB) – $5, 3 years
TJ Ward (DEN, S) – $3, 3 years
Reshad Jones (MIA, S) – $11, 4 years

The Champions of the Sun were always light at QB behind Big Ben and while Tannehill is at a decent price the inconsistency of performance he has shown across the years does not inspire confidence as a primary backup.  GM Max Cubberley is likely counting on QB Whisperer Adam Gase working his magic but if Paxton Lynch doesn’t become a viable QB 2 in Denver then he may find himself light on options.  Danny Woodhead seems like good RB depth, something the Champions need.  He is in a new scheme and has question marks over age and injury but he has shown an RB1/2 ceiling in the past and, at that price, if he can be a decent RB3 there will be no complaints.  The only other offensive move outside some RB flyers was Jack Doyle, the Indianapolis Tight End.  He currently heads the depth chart with both a QB and a scheme that are TE-friendly and so this seems like decent value even if he isn’t the most explosive or exciting of players.  Indianapolis may end up drafting a TE to replace him but it’s rare for rookie TEs to be a factor in their first year so the Champions should see at least one year of decent production from Doyle.

There wasn’t much money to throw around at Paddy’s Pub for free agents with a new deal for Khalil Mack on the horizon but the biggest chunk of change went to Reshad Jones.  $11 puts him in the elite bracket of safeties in terms of pay but it seems reasonably safe.  Jones has not changed scheme or team and in Miami he was the #1 safety (total points) in 2015 and the #2 safety (points per week) in 2016.  Paying premium money for a player is always a risk but Jones would seem to have a good shot of being a top 5 at his position every year, health allowing.  The other main moves on defence were reasonably small fry.  Amidst a whole host of $1 safeties and corners, Cubberley forked out $3 for TJ Ward.  Ward is a solid option, unlikely to trouble the top of the safety rankings but fine to serve as a #2 or #3 to Jones.  Kiko Alonso could be a steal at $5 (#22 LB in 2016) although concerns about him being shifted about in Miami’s scheme as well as his ever-present injury problems could just as easily sink him.  Mario Addison is a deal similar to Akiem Hicks for the Sadness.  A player who seemed to step up from mediocrity last season but whose role in the team for 2017 seems to be the same.  Maybe he’ll drop back to obscurity but he just got paid like a starter in Carolina and if he can be a solid DE2 again then it’s a good deal.

DynaHard

Adrian Peterson (FA, RB) – $14, 1 year
Latavius Murray (MIN, RB) – $26, 3 years
Eddy Lacy (SEA, RB) – $18, 3 years
Marshawn Lynch (OAK, RB) – $2, 1 year
Frank Gore (IND, RB) – $9, 1 year
Mike Wallace (BAL, WR) – $10, 2 years
Mohammed Sanu (ATL, WR) – $2, 3 years
Tavon Austin (LAR, WR) – $3, 3 years
Kenny Britt (CLE, WR) – $5, 1 year
Antonio Gates (SDC, TE) – $5, 1 year
Calais Campbell (JAX, DE) – $24, 1 year
Thomas Davis (CAR, LB) – $9, 1 year
Ryan Kerrigan (WAS, LB) – $11, 1 year

DynaHard GM Chris Braithwaite certainly appears to have carried his in-season waiver wire form into the off-season with a large number of players signed.  This scattershot approach seems to have largely swept up shit players, old players or shit, old players but if Chris hits on 25% of these tickets then he will be happy enough.  Where else to start but with the running backs where Braithwaite’s exasperation with Todd Gurley could not be evidenced more keenly than by giving Eddy Lacy $18.  By all accounts even fatter than last season, Lacy goes into a crowded and uncertain Seattle backfield.  It’s a lot of money to put on a player with a history of not getting in (or staying in) good shape.  $26 Latavius Murray has moved to just about the worst place for a running back in the league and this is a player who was massively touchdown dependent behind one of the best O-lines in the league.  I’d also slam the signing of Frank Gore except with Indianapolis, who knows?  They’re crying out for a new RB there but then that was the case last season too and they didn’t get one so maybe they’ll go back to the well of Gore one more year.  Peterson and Lynch are both much better deals.  Although AP doesn’t have a team yet I don’t expect that to last and he should be at least a goal-line back wherever he lands which offers decent value.  Lynch was a gamble when Chris signed him (being retired as he was) but all the signs now point to him being at least Oakland’s short-yardage back for the coming season which, even sharing the load with Jalen Richard and Deandre Washington, has value.  Just ask Latavius Murray.

DynaHard also added some mediocre to terrible wide receivers to their options too.  Tavon Austin hasn’t done it up to this point and doesn’t look like he’s about to start now, Kenny Britt is wince-inducing bye week cover at best and Mohammed Sanu can probably be relied upon for 3 or 4 points most weeks which is something I suppose.  Mike Wallace is the only one of the bunch that has much upside but a lot will depend on Baltimore’s draft moves there.  Overall I like this bunch a whole lot more than the RBs, mostly because they’re all cheap deals.  Yeah, they’re pretty terrible players but if one of them is a usable WR3 then it’s a decent result.  Antonio Gates is a move I like better.  A cheap deal for a guy who should still end the season as a good TE2 at least.  Gates will be solid bye-week and injury cover at least, if not more.

Chris was pretty set on defence, having one of the best units in the league, and his tinkering around the edges here are all decent business.  In Arizona Calais Campbell was hit and miss but usually ended the season on the cusp of DE1 at least.  In Jacksonville you have to think he’ll play more than two-thirds of the defensive snaps so the floor of his production goes up and hopefully his 30+ point ceiling remains intact.  For all that, he did just sign an FA deal with Jacksonville so he’ll probably score about 17 points over the season and spend most of it on the beach.  Thomas Davis and Ryan Kerrigan are both good LB pick-ups.  They each have LB1 ceilings if they have a good season (though the chances of Davis doing that at his age are diminished) and add good depth to the team.


That’s it for my 2017 free agency review.  If you got this far then thanks for reading and if you have any thoughts or comments feel free to post them here on the huddle but please bear in mind I couldn’t give a shit what you think.

2017 Free Agency Review: Peter

I love the smell of free agency in the morning.  Just like in the NFL, the Dynabowl is split between the haves and the have nots as half the team throw their cap space around like a cat in a bag and the other half count their pennies looking for that $2 linebacker that will really propel them to the next level.  Below is a slipshod, poorly thought out review of free agency in 2017.

I know free agency isn’t done yet.  Shut your hole.  Disclaimer: I haven’t looked at or included the majority of the small deals in this piece.  Mostly because I’m lazy.

Tamworth Two

Rex Burkhead (NEP, RB) – $1, 3 years
Doug Baldwin (SEA, WR) – $48, 2 years
Cameron Brate (TBB, TE) – $22, 4 years

A quiet free agency so far for T2 as their cap-strapped status shows through.  Goody and Mat moved to address two problem areas though with Baldwin added to a lackluster stable of middling talent at WR and Brate joining Eric Ebron to add to a depleted TE pool.  Doug Baldwin seems like a decent value here as he has shown high-end production for the last two years.  You could question how good he would be in another team (or, rather, how well he would be used) but the 2 year deal recognises those questions and minimises the risk.  Cameron Brate is a huge overpay in my book.  At $22 you are expecting him to be the top 5 TE he was last year every year and with Tampa expected to draft a TE high I wouldn’t be comfortable about his future.

Of the smaller deals, Rex Burkhead is the one who stands out.  T2 moved quickly to lock Burkhead down when he didn’t have a team and gambled on his landing spot.  He ended up in New England and with the Patriots moving on from Blount, looking unconvinced by Dion Lewis and seeing James White as a purely receiving back he could get a big opportunity to impress there.  Nothing is certain and Burkhead will have to fight his way up the depth chart but if he can do it then this deal could be a huge steal.

The Sadness

Eli Manning (NYG, QB) – $8, 2 years
Eli Rogers (PIT, WR) – $4, 4 years
Pierre Garcon (SFO, WR) – $2, 3 years
Akiem Hicks (CHI, DE) – $2, 3 years
Tyrann Mathieu (ARI, S) – $15, 5 years

The Sadness really started to turn a corner last season and, perhaps mindful of some expensive extensions to come, Geoffrey Manboob did not swing big in the free agent market.  With the loss of Brees there was a big hole at QB and Eli Manning, though an imperfect solution, goes some way to filling it.  The Sadness are carrying 6 quarterbacks currently (Glennon, Goff, Alex Smith, Osweiler and Bridgewater) and none inspire confidence.  If Manning is as unconvincing as last season then this could turn into a game of whackamole as Geoffrey tries to guess which QB will be competent from one week to the next.  Rogers and Garcon are a couple of nice, cheap deals at WR.  Neither has an elite ceiling but both could be very solid contributors and nice trade pieces if the right situation arises.  Garcon in particular could easily end up in the top 25 at WR as the number 1 target in San Francisco and you aren’t kicking that out of bed for 2 bucks.

Only two moves stood out for me defensively.  Akiem Hicks has been playing well in Chicago’s front seven and was a top 10 DE last season.  In short, exactly the kind of player you may as well bet $2 on in free agency.  Mathieu is a bigger risk and a bigger question mark.  If he plays 16 games in a season he will be worth that money but with a few big injuries in his past now his health has to be a major concern.

Dynasore Losers

Jalen Richard (OAK, RB) – $17, 3 years (still active at time of writing)
Marqise Lee (JAC, WR) – $11, 4 years
Marvin Jones (DET, WR) – $13, 2 years
Ndamakung Suh (MIA, DT) – $49, 2 years
Robert Quinn (LAR, DE) – $8, 4 years
Kurt Coleman (CAR, S) – $11, 3 years (still active at time of writing)
Bradley McDougald (TBB, S) – $4, 4 years

With cap space to burn, GM David Slater seems to have gone free agent crazy this off-season.  RB is a clear area of need for the Losers and Richard (if won) showed flashes last year but the money seems off the charts here to me for a player who isn’t likely to escape RBBC.  The Losers do also have DeAndre Washington on their roster so maybe this is an aggressive move to lock down that backfield but I wouldn’t bet against the Raiders bringing in another player in FA or the draft to add yet more uncertainty to the mix.  Lee and Jones are a pair of WRs who offer a bit of depth at WR but it must be asked if this was really needed.  As Slater himself will tell you if you open up a 3 second pause on conversation, he has a lot of talent at the position already.  Jones’ numbers from last season look fine but he was not a reliable week-to-week proposition and Marqise Lee is as likely to disappear down the depth chart again as he is to have another top 30 season.

There are two real eye openers on defence with the Losers going aggressively after Suh and, bizarrely, Kurt Coleman.  Suh is a lot of money but he does, at least, have a top level ceiling that could pay off in spades.  Kurt Coleman, on the other hand, is a fairly run of the mill safety who was picked up off waiver wires in both of the last two seasons and now becomes a top 5 paid player at his position.  Perhaps both of these moves are intended by Slater merely to push up extension costs for other players at their position but, if so, I don’t quite get the logic at safety.  Robert Quinn is the Losers’ best move of free agency.  Like Tyrann Matheiu above he is a player who can really perform above and beyond at his position when healthy but unlike Mathieu he is being paid at a very reasonable rate.  Slater can afford to front-load all his guarantee and proceed for the next 4 years knowing he has a player who can be cut for nothing but,if fit, has the potential to be top 3 at his position.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Jason Pierre-Paul (NYG, DE) – $22, 2 years

With arguably the weakest roster in the league and plenty of cap space it’s no surprise to see Pete Conaghan making a big splash in the… in… in Free…

Oh

I can only assume Pete was busy with real life while all this was going on.

In defence of the Dungeoneers, they were probably the team with the fewest players released in free agency and thus didn’t need to fill out their roster too much but it’s hard to believe that the squad couldn’t have benefited from some of the players on offer.

Here Comes The Brees

Drew Brees (NOS, QB) – $Whatever needed paying, forever (wait, what?  They didn’t?  And he calls himself a fan!)
Torrey Smith (PHI, WR) – $1, 3 years
Robby Anderson (NYJ, WR) – $3, 3 years
JJ Nelson (ARI, WR) – $7, 3 years
Lorenzo Alexander (BUF, LB) – $2, 2 years
Christian Kirksey (CLE, LB) – $9, 4 years
Jonathan Cyprien (JAC, S) – $3, 3 years

With big extensions looming the Brees were a little limited in free agency this season and prioritised moves to bolster their perennial Achilles’ heel at wide receiver.  I like all three deal to varying degrees.  Torrey Smith is the best value here.  He will be a starting wide receiver in Philadelphia and it feels difficult to hold his San Francisco wilderness years against him with the shitshow on offence there.  For $1 there is zero risk here and plenty of reward.  Robby Anderson is by no means guaranteed to get plenty of snaps in New York but he really came on at the end of last season and, particularly if the team cuts Decker, he could be in line for a bigger piece of the pie.  JJ Nelson is the deal I like the least.  Carson Palmer is done and the Cardinals have no plan B.  Add to that the fact that Nelson could not prove himself reliable last season and you have a speedy receiver with a lot of variance.  It’s not a particularly expensive deal though so there’s not a huge risk.

On the other side of the ball Lorenzo Alexander may have been a flash in the pan but why wouldn’t you take a chance on him repeating some of that production for $2.  Cyprien is another solid move on the defensive side as he has shown himself to be a steady if unspectacular performer and someone that you can drop in each week you need to and feel happy with his floor.  Kirksey is the biggest gamble of the Brees’ free agency as he is a lineback who has yet to really prove he can perform to a high level.  He has shown flashes, however, and is still only 24 so has plenty of room to grow.  I think it’s unlikely he consistently performs to a level that is greater than replacement however.