MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 6

Better late than never!  Or maybe not.  I’ll leave that up to you.  In week 4 I took a look at every team’s offensive performance so far in 2016 and compared it to their 2015 performance to look for improvement and decline.  This week I’ll be doing the same with the defense.  To the stats!

2016 Week 1-6 Average vs 2015 Average
Dungeoneers Brees T2 Sadness Losers Champions Firebirds Kelkowski Hard Bombermen
DT/DE -6.31 4.90 -8.94 1.80 -3.83 4.10 1.40 7.85 -5.02 -2.05
LB -0.29 8.69 3.39 -3.05 7.57 -4.63 3.14 -6.71 -1.17 3.46
CB/S 4.13 2.63 3.08 -9.36 -3.03 -9.20 5.86 -3.58 7.45 -1.51
DEF -2.46 16.22 -2.47 -10.61 0.71 -9.73 10.39 -2.44 1.26 -0.10

Defensive Line

Winners: Kelkowski are crushing it on the D-line this year!  Nearly 8 points up on 2015!  Look a bit deeper though and it has, perhaps, some of the qualities of a mirage.  Firstly, JPP and friends are averaging 22.67 points per game, slightly above average for the D-line.  It’s an improvement but it’s a movement from bottom of the pile to mid-table obscurity.  Secondly, that average is propped up by a massive 63 points in week 3 when the ghost of Malik Jackson briefly turned up to spook Ebeneezer Kelkowski.  Across the other 5 weeks they average 14.6 points, a number better only than Pete’s damp paper bag of a D-line.  Despite losing Aaron Donald, the Brees are functioning better than last season too.  Part of this is due to replacing the best DT in fantasy football with the second best in Fletcher Cox but Michael Bennett and Cameron Jordan are both solid producers too.

Losers: Oh T2, we knew thee well.  After triumphing in the “underwhelming running back” stakes last time out, Goody and Mat show us that they can disappoint on both sides of the ball.  Some of this decline is due to missing pieces (Gerald McCoy and Chandler Jones have been absent much or all of the year) but I think we see an impact of the scoring changes here.  T2 hit big on Kawann Short and Gerald McCoy last season and DTs are probably the group to take the biggest hit from the downgrading of big plays.  Both have scored very well but those 40 point games should be gone now for the most part.  A lot of last year’s big DT scorers have done worse through the start of 2016.  The Dungeoneers d-line is also down 6 points but I don’t think I can kick Pete anymore so let’s leave it at that.

Linebackers

Winners: There are two clear winners in this category, the Brees and the Losers.  Both units were very poor last season so, like Kelkowski’s D-Line, this improvement puts them in the middle of the pack rather than raising them to the top of the charts.  Slatz invested in the position in free agency and the draft with Paul Posluszny and Markus Golden delivering and Deion Jones and Leonard Floyd looking strong through the start of their rookie seasons.  The Brees, meanwhile, seem to have gone for the “2015 Josh Norman” effect and just picked up a player from waivers having a monster season in Lorenzo Alexander.  51 of the 99 points they’ve scored at LB in the last three weeks have been from him.  Improved play from Will Compton and Shaq Barrett is helping but to maintain this improvement they need Alexander to continue playing out of his skin.

Losers: What would Max Cubberley say if you asked him about the decline of his linebackers (4.5 points down on last season).  He’d tell you that they’re still scoring more than anybody else’s linebackers so you can go fuck yourself.  He’d probably also whinge on about injuries and players moving position but lets not give him a platform.  Kelkowski’s overall defensive decline continues here with their linebackers regressing the most out of all the teams (6.7 points down on last season).  Their situation is the reverse of the Losers’ and the Brees’.  Kelkowski’s LBs were among the best in the business last season and this year they’re just… average.  D’Qwell Jackson and Brandon Marshall are the main culprits here and Stephone Anthony’s reduced playing time at strong side LB for the Saints leaves them short a little bit of depth.  Zach Orr is a good wire pickup though who should be able to compensate for that.

Defensive Backs

Winners: Yuk.  Defensive back analysis.  Well, Dyna Hard and the firebirds are both doing better this season than last.  Rodney McLeod was a great pick-up for Chris and Aqib Talib’s 3 INTs so far this year certainly don’t hurt.  Chris’ DBs are comfortably the highest scoring in the league so far this season and his main problem now is the potential for PLOBbage.  With 43 cornerbacks to choose from on any given week, it’s no wonder that Neil is doing well but the PLOBbage is real here.  Trying to predict S and (particularly) CB scoring week on week is far from easy and although Neil has done a good job it must be frustrating to look at your bench every week and see the road not taken.

Losers: The Sadness and the Champions both show an equal decline at the DB spot.  For Cubberley the situation is similar to his LBs.  Despite losing 9 points a game on 2015 the Champions still have the third highest scoring set of DBs in the league so this decline is as much a result of an outlying season of success as anything else.  With Reshad Jones gone for the season now though Maxxxxxx will have to look deep into the waiver wire to try to maintain the pace.  The Sadness, on the other hand, are, by nearly 6 points per game, the worst secondary in the Dbowl.  Their decline is from mediocrity to abject failure.  Looking at the scores of his players for the year to date though you wouldn’t think you were looking at a secondary so adrift from the rest of the field.  To be honest, they’ve scored from disappointing to average every week rather than terribly and this slump is really a result of having no big weeks so far.  A couple of INTs this week could see them pick up and return closer to the average.  DBs, eh?  It’s a funny old game.

Defence

Winners: Although his DB improvement is the best, Neil has improved across the board on defence this season, scoring over 10 points more than last year per game.  At 86.20 points per game, his group is the best in the Dbowl at the moment but the week on week stats show a sharp decline.  In weeks 1-3 the Birds averaged 108 points per game on D.  In weeks 4-6 that number fell to 64 points per game.  He’s had big pieces on bye in each of those weeks but it’s something to keep an eye on.  If I was Neil I would be moving to address the obvious gap at DE in his roster.  Maybe drop a CB or two to make ro… who am I kidding, he’s never going to drop any CBs.  If you think improving by 10 points is impressive, though, look at the Brees!  A 16 point increase!  That takes them to averaging 76 points per game which is… wait… it’s bang average.  Putting aside Pete’s crepe paper D (sorry Pete) the Brees were about that far adrift of everyone else last season.  Really, it would have been more impressive to be so bad two seasons in a row.

Losers: Let’s just check in with Max Cubberley on what he thinks about his defence averaging 10 points fewer than last season.  “Go fuck yourself!”  Thought so.  The Champions are still the second best scoring defence but last week was a low outing from them and this week’s lineup has a few too many waiver wire pickups for my liking.  We’re not too far off a week where Cubberley starts 4 Texans’ linebackers and that can’t be good for anyone.  The Sadness are the other team to have lost 10 points off their average.  Most of that is their secondary, as discussed, though and there is some cause for optimism that those numbers could improve over the season.  Despite Linval Joseph’s monster season so far the Sadness only show a 2 point improvement on the D-Line though and there is room for improvement here.  Mangboob’s DEs are not inspiring and a little trade magic could really help him to improve those numbers and make a playoff push in Peter.

Overall

Winners: It will come as no surprise to anyone that the Bombermen are the big improvement on last season, averaging 24 points more per game than last season’s disappointing results.  You’ll have seen that they were conspicuous by their absence in today’s report and, indeed, their defence is operating at a 0.1 loss on last year.  All of this is offensive improvement and it looks like it has the legs to go all season.  The Sadness are the other big improvement, nearly 15 points up on last year.  This is despite giving 10 points away per game from their receivers and it shows the difference that a certified stud like Zeke Elliot can make.

Losers: Last season’s hot ticket, the Champions of the Sun, are back scrapping with everyone else this year, down 10 points on defence and 6 points on offence.  Despite all of this they’re still scoring well but some thinness at RB and secondary is coming home to roost and they’re now in a position of relying on Trevor Siemian week on week for production.  After them, Tamworth Two are having a ‘mare this season, giving away 8 points a game.  LeSean McCoy is keeping their running game above water on his own and it’s really just the D-line and special teams (!) that account for the decline.


Weekly Stats

TABLES!

Don't Look Blat In Anger
Don’t Look Blat In Anger

Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54  Tim wins.  3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18  Tim wins.  4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)
Week 5: Peter (average) 177.50 vs Tim (average) 176.66  PETER WINS.  4-1 to Tim (victory margin 0.84)
Week 6: Peter (average) 170.47 vs Tim (average) 174.70  Sanity is restored, Tim wins.  5-1 to Tim (victory margin 4.23)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 179.85 vs Tim (average) 192.52. Tim leads (margin 12.68)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 4

Well thank Christ for that.  Week 4 is in the books and finally we have some data that is actually starting to mean something.  This feels like the first point in the season, for me, that we can really look at our teams’ performances and start to draw meaningful conclusions.  Over the next two weeks I’m going to take a look at each team’s average score by position group so far this season and compare it to their average from weeks 1 – 16 of last season.  This week: offence.  To the data!

2016 Week 1-4 Average vs 2015 Season 2015 Average
Dungeoneers Brees T2 Sadness Losers Champions Firebirds Kelkowski Hard Bombermen
QB -1.06 -1.08 2.49 5.96 -0.36 4.09 -5.23 -2.22 -6.23 -0.73
RB -3.84 -4.36 -6.44 14.34 4.54 0.84 3.13 9.75 -2.29 13.61
WR/TE -3.59 5.26 2.18 -12.68 6.34 0.42 -9.69 -5.67 -0.41 10.71
SPEC 2.09 0.95 -2.59 -2.10 -0.09 -2.29 -1.11 2.79 -1.22 0.91
OFF -6.41 0.77 -4.37 5.52 10.43 3.06 -12.90 4.65 -10.14 24.49

Yuk.  It looks much prettier in my spreadsheet, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Quarterback

Winners: So far MANGBOOB has resisted the urge to fiddle about switching Drew Brees in and out with whatever no mark he has down the depth chart and it’s paying dividends with an increase of nearly 6 points on average at the position.  I mean, last season’s performance was a low bar to clear (less than 15 points a week) but a win’s a win.  The Champions are showing an improvement of over 4 points too with Roethlisberger, Eagles aside, going to town so far in 2016.

Losers: So far through 4 weeks, a QB has been in Dyna Hard’s top 10 scorers of the week only once, in week 1 (for comparison, everyone else has had a QB in their top 10 3 or 4 times).  Chris has cycled through Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and even Marcus Mariota so far, trying to play matchups but those three are simply too hard to predict (well, you could probably predict Marcus Mariota hasn’t been worth starting any of these weeks).  Chris is probably best advised to pick one of Stafford and Manning and stick with them although no doubt whoever he picks will be the wrong one.  The other big loser here is the Firebirds but I’m wary of reading too much into this.  The Seahawks typically take time to get their offence going and Wilson has been banged up.  I think we can expect to see this improve.

Running Backs

Winners: There are two runners way ahead of the pack here, the Sadness and the Bombermen.  Neither of these is difficult to analyse.  Imagine me standing mutely on a stage.  To my right is Ezekiel Elliot.  I am pointing at Ezekiel Elliot.  To my left is David Johnson.  I am pointing at David Johnson.  You can dive a bit deeper and say that both are getting better support from Jeremy Hill and Matt Jones’ raging lack-of-any-competition but you probably don’t need to.

Losers: As many Dynabowl experts predicted (well, one… well, me) at the start of the season, T2 are suffering at tailback this season.  Jonathan Stewart disappeared some time in September and without him LeSean McCoy is trying to navigate choppy waters on his own.  T2 have traded for Bilal Powell this week in an attempt to put things back on course and it’s a good solid move that should help to steer them back towards mediocrity.  The other big loser here is Breeses but, considering their RBs are still the 5th highest scoring in the Dbowl, I don’t think there’s much to read into this.  With Doug Martin injured and Devonta Freeman not scoring three TDs every game it was bound to happen.

Receivers

Winners: The Bombermen are another big winner here and when you consider that between receivers and RBs they’re averaging 24 points more than last season it’s easy to see why they’re top of the rankings.  It feels like this is the production we thought was coming this year so it’s not really a surprise.  It must be very pleasing for Ben to see, having kept faith with Cooks, Benjamin and Jordan Matthews as each came through their own struggles last season.  The Losers and Brees are also much improved here and you can point at off-season trades for Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry respectively as big factors in this.

Losers: While every category so far has been a triumph for the Sadness, the reading isn’t so pretty here.  Odell Beckham is mouthing off more than he’s balling out and losing Eric Decker and Golden Tate (look, he was good last season) has hurt too.  Stephon Diggs looks like the real deal though and as MANGBOOB’s rookies start to warm up to the NFL this score will head back the right way.  The Firebirds are the next in line to the throne of suffering.  No Gronk, no Demaryius Thomas and no Brady slingin’ it to Edelman probably explains this.  The good news for Neil is that Willie Snead looks to be a good WR 2/3 going forward and that Gronk and Brady will be back firing on all cylinders soon.  The real person to look to for trouble here is Pete.  Cooper doesn’t get a sniff in the end zone and Allen and Kevin White are done for the season.  That -4 is only going down from here I’m afraid.

Special Teams

Winners: We are all winners because we play in a league with fantasy punters.  Every day I wake up a little bit happier than I would have been otherwise, knowing that this is the case.  Now, if only we could get those fantasy Long Snappers in.

Losers: All those plebs out there who restrict themselves to a fantasy kicker.  They don’t know what they’re missing.  The only thing better than a great punt is an awful punt.

Offence

Winners: The Bombermen are a whopping 25 points better this season on offence than last season, turning from a middle of the road goose (they weren’t bad enough to be an ugly duckling) into a swan.  Most of that 25 points is accounted for above so I will take the time to draw attention to the second most improved team on offence, the Dynasore Losers.  I haven’t mentioned them much in any of the categories above because their improvement has more been about building on what came before.  Good gains at receiver at and running back pair with holding steady at QB and special teams to produce a strong growth.

Losers: Dyna Hard are one of the biggest losers compared to last year, their offence being 10 points down on last season’s performance.  Much of that is accounted for in QB as mentioned above but it’s worth noting that they are worse in every single offensive position this season, a worrying trend.  Bottom of the pile are Neil’s Firebirds with a modest gain at RB from CJ Anderson’s new-found reliability not enough to counteract that weakened receiver corps and a banged-up Russell Wilson.  The question really is, if Neil is giving 13 points away on offence compared to last season then how has he had such a decent start to the season?  Tune in to next week’s blat to find out…


Weekly Stats

Here are your stats after week 4.

Blat Once Again With The Renegade Master
Blat Once Again For The Renegade Master

 


Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54  Tim wins.  3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18  Tim wins.  4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 182.78 vs Tim (average) 200.94. Tim leads (margin 18.17)

Oh dear.  That margin just keeps growing.  I might have to call this for Tim.  TKO.