Draft Review and Early 2015 Predictions

With the draft in the books, it’s time to take stock and work out what it all means… Pre-draft needs are taken from the 2.0 draft.

DynaHarder

Pre-draft needs: QB, RB3, WR2, TE, S

What you started with: 1.01, 2.01, 3.01, 4.01, 4.11, 5.01, 5.11, 6.01, 7.01. Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, DeAngelo Williams

What you ended up with: Toddy Gurley, Marcus Mariota, David Cobb, Tyler Lockett, Jeremy Langford, Tre McBride, Kenny Bell, Stefon Diggs, Bradley Pinion, TY Hilton

 

The worst case: An over-used running back, with a succession of muscle injuries and topped off by one few, if any, players ever completely recover from, on a team who’s line has been rebuilt after stinking out 2014… Gurley out T-Riches T-Rich. The least Whisenhunt QB ever, going to work with Ken Whisenhunt, and two depth options from a moribund offence offer no viable fantasy starters. In fact, in the worst case scenario, the only fantasy relevant starter in this draft is a punter. At least there’s TY Hilton, until he signs somewhere else next year.

The upside: Hilton doesn’t land in a bad spot when he leaves the Colts. Gurley’s injury doesn’t take much of his top end and he becomes the best thing in St Louis since Faulk. Mariota rejuvenates the Titans offence, and Cobb quickly moves to the top of the depth chart behind a line which improves a lot as Warmack finally harnesses his talent. Bell replaces Jackson, Forte leaves the Bears and Diggs develops into Teddy’s favourite target. Then you wake up.

Realistically: Mariota may never be a fantasy starter, but he fills the need at QB, Gurley and Cobb offer solid RB3 options and Hilton is a very good WR2. The needs at TE and S can be filled in free agency, with good options available there.

Dynasty of Sadness

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB1, TE, DE, DT, LB2.

What you started with: 1.02, 2.02, 3.02, 4.02, 4.12, 5.02, 6.02, 7.02. Calais Campbell*, Cam Newton

What you ended up with: Ameer Abdullah, Jaelen Strong, Josh Robinson, Matt Jones, Bud Dupree, Arik Armstead, DeAndre Carter, Zach Zenner, Eddie Lacy, Brock Osweiler, Markus Wheaton, Sheldon Richardson, DeAngelo Williams, Paul Richardson*, Drew Brees

The worst case: You wasted your top pick on a back up, and have thoroughly sewn up a wholly worthless Detroit backfield. Robinson and Jones are gambles that don’t work out. Armstead is a project who never projects to anything and Wheaton, Williams and Osweiler don’t even make it through roster cuts. With no targets in the passing game Brees wastes the last couple of years of his fantasy relevance and Teddy never kicks on, leaving two QBs who rank just outside the top 10. A third concussion in three years leads to a long lay off and he returns a shadow of his best on limited workloads, meanwhile Amari Cooper tears it up and somehow this trade ends up looking like the Sadness got the worst end.

The upside: Lacy is the RB1 the Sadness needed and Abdullah quickly replaces Bell who’d plateaued at mediocre to become a good RB2. Strong is a solid WR2/3, Richardson and Dupree are defensive starters, Jones replaces Morris who leaves in free agency and Robinson replaces Gore in 12 months. Carter outperforms Perriman and Armstead develops into the beast his physical stature suggests.

Realistically: Brees fills the need at QB immediately, giving time for Bridgewater to develop, Lacy is a definite filler for RB1. The need at TE could be filled in the medium term with a free agent rookie and Sheldon Richardson is a solid starting DE2. Dupree fills a need at LB and could play from year one. Need at DT remains. The Sadness are definitely improved in the draft, but for all the trading, they ended up with the same number of picks they started with and a lot of the trade pieces were middling at best.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Pre-draft needs: RB2, WR1/2, DE1, LB3, S.

What you started with: 1.03, 2.03, 2.11, 3.03, 4.03, 5.03, 6.03, 7.03. Eddie Lacy, Drew Brees, Steve Smith*, Brock Osweiler, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

What you ended up with: Amari Cooper, Kevin White, Devin Smith, Mike Davis, Rashad Greene, Paul Dawson, Cam Newton, Keenan Allen*, Vernon Davis, Darren Sproles, Ryan Tannehill

The worst case: You traded away a legitimate RB1 at pennies on the dollar, bringing in wide receivers who will get thrown the ball (sideways) by Derek Carr, Genome and sulky Jay Cutler (until he’s cut next summer). Cam is a busted flush, who isn’t a viable fantasy starter without running and Tannehill is not Brees. Keenan Allen turns out to be the guy from 2014, rather than 2013 and Vernon Davis and Darren Sproles are only starting because they play for the Dungeoneers.

The upside: Both Cooper and White hit big early, and given a couple of years Devin Smith develops into a viable starter when the Jets find a QB. Cam’s pocket passing develops, but he remains a big threat on the ground, and a top 5 QB, while Tannehill becomes good tradebait for a QB-needy team. Both Clay and Davis are solid TEs at least for the short term and Levy remains a top tier LB for a few more years. Gore turns out to be actually invincible as has long been suspected.

Realistically: At best one of Cooper and White develops into a top tier WR1/2, but the other is serviceable as a 3rd receiver. Yes, the team sucks this year, but that just puts them in a good position to get a good RB in 2016. Paul Dawson should be a fine ILB, and Keenan Allen’s true worth is probably as a decent WR2, regardless of which, stealing him for Steve Smith was a stroke of genius. Defensive End is still a problem.

Tamworth Two

Pre-draft needs: WR1, TE, DE1, LB1, CB1, S1.

What you started with: 1.04, 2.04, 3.04, 4.04, 5.04, 6.04, 7.04. Markus Wheaton, Vernon Davis, Orlando Scandrick, John Brown, Darren Sproles

What you ended up with: DeVante Parker, Duke Johnson, Vic Beasley, DeAndre Smelter, Cameron Artis-Payne, Landon Collins, Denzel Perryman, Karlos Williams, Darren Waller

The worst case: The bust rate on first round receivers is massive, and even if Parker doesn’t bust, there’s no guarantee he is anything more than a low end fantasy starter or flex in Miami’s uninspired offence. Smelter is a reach who never becomes relevant, Johnson is part of a committee and Artis-Payne and Williams only handcuffs. A defensive starter or two don’t make up for the misses on offense, meanwhile John Brown lights it up for the Champions of the Sun.

The upside: Parker works well underneath in Miami’s new offence and gets volume yardage as well as red-zone action. Johnson establishes himself as the main back in Cleveland and Beasley, Collins and Perryman all serve their teams well. Smelter needs time but becomes a flex option, replacing Boldin, while Williams and Artis-Payne back up the main men on Tamworth Two just fine.

Realistically: Parker is probably a WR2 at best, with his viability underneath and in the red zone making him a good option for Tannehill who doesn’t have the arm to make good deep throws. Johnson is in a committee in Cleveland, but could end up being the main part of it, either way, he’s probably a low end RB2 at best. Beasley should be a viable DE and Perryman and Collins could also be viable positional starters. John Brown might be the new TY Hilton, but without Andrew Luck that doesn’t mean much.

Champions of the Sun

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2/3, WR3.

What you started with: 1.05, 2.05, 3.05, 4.05, 5.05, 6.05, 7.05. DeSean Jackson, Paul Richardson*, Da’Norris Searcy, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee.

What you ended up with: Jay Ajayi, Leonard Williams, Dante Fowler Jr, Thomas Rawls, Bernardrick McKinney, Hau’oli Kikaha, MyCole Pruitt, Michael Bennett, Marcel Dareus, Calais Campbell*, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, John Brown

The worst case: Ajayi never displaces Lamar Miller, Williams is used situationally, Fowler never makes it to the NFL due to injuries, Dareus moves to nose, Helu disappears into Oakland’s depth chart much as he did in Washington, neither of the Browns are viable starters and Michael Bennett is more of a nose alongside San’derrick Marks. Lots of flex players, but few starters.

The upside: John Brown is the new TY Hilton with Palmer back, Dante Fowley and Williams develop into top tier NFL ends, and MyCole Pruitt takes over as the Vikings Tight End. Dareus ends up with all the play of an end, while remaining a DT by position on MFL.

Realistically: Having traded down and then out of the first there wasn’t a potential star available, and picking up the best two defenders in the mid rounds represents value, if not necessarily guaranteeing any success. Ajayi might be short term due to injury concerns, but it’s a short term position anyway, and with bell leading the RBs there’s  no need for him to be a star. Rawls is a wasted pick, but gives you a monopoly on the Seattle running backs who never actually play.

Fingerblaster Bummermen

Pre-draft needs: ‘elite’ players.

What you started with: 1.06, 2.06, 3.06, 4.06, 4.13, 5.06, 6.06, 7.06. Danny Lansanah, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Steven Jackson*

What you ended up with: Melvin Gordon, David Johnson, Chris Conley, Justin Hardy, Trae Waynes, Shane Ray, Grady Jarrett, Trey Flowers, Christian Ringo, Jeremy Hill, Orlando Scandrick

The worst case: Gordon ensures control of a San Diego backfield that sucks, his tendency to bounce outside and get tackled for a loss, relying on speed to beat sub-par college players proves unsurprisingly unsuccessful in the NFL. Conley discovers why Kansas receivers didn’t score a TD at all last year, Hardy is the new Harry Douglas while David Johnson ensure Arizona’s committee of mediocrity is maintained. With Green returning and Bernard fitter, Hill ends up part of a committee also, although not as mediocre as the one in Arizona, neither Bernard nor Hill are much more than RB2s.

The upside: Hill, Ellington, Johnson and Bernard fall into more traditional 1/2 roles giving 2 good starters, Conley shows the reason why KC didn’t score touchdowns was a lack of talent, rather than Alex Smith & Andy Reid and Gordon is the game-changing playmaker the Chargers traded up for. Waynes is a solid selection at CB, and Scandrick makes up a starting pair at the position with him.

Realistically: There’s probably an RB1 somewhere in the mess of Ellington, Hill, Bernard, Johnson, Oliver and Gordon, but whether there’s more than one is hard to call, and they could easily all get in each others ways. Conley and Hardy are upside picks, but both probably top out at WR2 or WR3. Shane Ray could be a decent DE in a year’s time, but might not offer much immediately. Hill and Gordon offer the best chance of hitting on an elite player and Green’s return to fitness should provide one at WR, but ultimately, the need to find an elite player or two probably wasn’t met in this draft.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Pre-draft needs: QB, TE?, DT, LB1, CB2.

What you started with: 1.07, 2.07, 3.07, 4.07, 5.07, 6.07, 7.07.

What you ended up with: TJ Yeldon, Devin Funchess, Stephone Anthony, Randy Gregory, Danny Shelton, Ahmed Brooks

The worst case: Gerhart takes over the Jags backfield making Yeldon wait. Funchess’ lack of pace combined with Cam’s erratic throwing make for a poor combination, Anthony barely plays, Shelton is a nose and Randy Gregory is a bit too much of a prick for the cowboys to stomach.

The upside: Gregory is a solid steal in the middle rounds, and Anthony blossoms with improved scoring for inside backers. Funchess is an Olsen like workable WR2, and Yeldon gives the Jags a proper running back threat, it not at elite one.

Realistically: There’s still a need at Tight End, and Shelton (being a Nose) is probably not going to fill the need at tackle. Projecting Anthony as an LB1 in the short-term seems a streatch, and the need at QB was not filled due to Kelkowski not recognising the danger when the Losers traded up. Yeldon might be a starter at RB, but there wasn’t too serious a need at the position anyway, so he might end up being a reasonable chip for a trade. Funchess could go either way, but projects as at best a bench option in a fairly limited Panthers passing attack.

DynaSore Losers

Pre-draft needs: QB?, RB2, WR3, DT, CB

What you started with: 1.08, 2.08, 3.08, 4.08, 5.08, 6.08, 7.08. Sheldon Richardson.

What you ended up with: Nelson Agholor, Jameis Winston, Sammie Coates, Owamagbe Odighizuwa, Clive Walford, Jake Ryan, Danielle Hunter

The worst case: Agholor dropped for a reason, and that reason was Sam Bradford, who isn’t good before he gets hurt and is Mark Sanchez after. Coates never gets a look in at Pittsburgh and Odighizuwa never replaces JPP. Winston meanwhile is every bit as good as advertised and becomes the best quarterback serving time in federal prison, trading Richardson for him turns out even worse as the massive hole at DE goes unfilled.

The upside: Winston is every bit as good as advertised in the NFL, proving to be almost as good as Luck and replacing Manning for 2016 in the Losers starting QB slot. Agholor develops into a WR1 due to his ability to turn routine plays into huge gains and be a threat in the red zone. Coates meanwhile shows his big game talent regularly, replacing Bryant and Wheaton as a clear #2 option for Roethlisberger. Ryan and Odighizuwa are solid defensive starters from the early days and Walford is a decent bench option at TE.

Realistically: There’s a hole at DE that Odighizuwa won’t fill in 2015, and Hunter is even less likely to. No viable tackle is found and the weaknesses in defence undermine the team by costing silly points each week. There is a serious lack of depth at RB, and even covering bye weeks, let alone injuries, will be tough.

Here Comes the Brees

Pre-draft needs: RB, WR, DE, DT, LB, CB2?, S

What you started with: 1.09, 2.09, 3.09, 4.09, 5.09, 6.09, 7.09. Marcel Dareus, Roy Helu, Philly Brown, Keenan Allen, Martellus Bennett

What you ended up with: Tevin Coleman, Breshad Perriman, Phillip Dorsett, Maxx Williams, Shaq Thompson, Garrett Grayson, Jordan Hicks, Steven Jackson*, Steve Smith*, DeSean Jackson, Danny Lansanah, Terrence West, Isiah Crowell, Marquise Lee

The worst case: Perriman, Dorsett and Williams offer little to nothing in 2015, and don’t exactly light it up in 2016 either. Jackson remains the boom/bust receiver who misses 2-4 games a year with injuries. Owning the browns backfield is as worthwhile as it would seem and Coleman is a RB2 in the good years. Keenan Allen refinds his 2013 form.

The upside: Coleman establishes himself early and for a number of years as an RB1-/2+ and Perriman replaces Smith fairly seemlessly as a WR2-/3+. Williams is a solid tight end with a QB who loves throwing to him, and establishes himself as a solid TE1 and Dorsett’s talent sees him work his way into the team in 2015, with Hilton barely missed in 2016. Marquise Lee becomes a good depth receiver with his fitness issues overcome.

Realistically: There were a lot of players drafted, but this is a long-term sort of draft. Tight Ends rarely offer much in year one, Dorsett doesn’t offer much hope of a strong first year and Baltimore’s offence is hardly electric, suggesting Perriman will need time also. Ultimately this draft was one to position the team to be more competitive in 2016, and Dorsett, Perriman and Coleman should do that. 2015 will likely be rough though.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Pre-draft needs: DE1, LB, CB, S

What you started with: 1.10, 2.10, 3.10, 4.10, 5.10, 6.10, 7.10. Jeremy Hill, TY Hilton, Ryan Tannehill

What you ended up with: Dorial Green-Beckham, Eric Kendricks, Javorius Allen, Mario Edwards Jr, Henry Anderson, Bryce Petty, Martellus Bennett, Rob Ninkovich, Brandon Graham, Julian Edelman, Alex Ogletree, Ron Saunders, Charles Clay, Frank Gore, DeAndre Levy

The worst case: Trading starting offensive pieces for middling offensive and defensive starters is a tactic that backfires. Bennett is an expensive back-up for Gronk if he stays fit and a poor replacement if he doesn’t, Edelman isn’t going to replace Jones if he gets injured (again), and Ogletree is an upgrade at LB but at a stiff price. Kendricks is an ILB and doesn’t crack the top 20 LBs any time soon, Allen is the 3rd RB in Baltimore and DGB is nowhere on the Titans depth chart. Henry Anderson joined one of the worst rushing defences in the NFL.

The upside: Anderson becomes the pass rush in Indianapolis and the upgrades on defence offer more to the Firebirds than they lose on offence. Edelman is a good WR2, with Jones fit ahead of him and Hill isn’t missed because Lynch and Anderson carry the rock effectively and a lot.

Realistically: If / when Jones gets an injury the team will suffer as Edelman simply doesn’t have the potential to put up WR1 points that Hilton did and while Hill won’t be missed with Anderson and Lynch putting up solid RB1 points it’s likely that the points gained on defensive upgrades such as Ogletree and Levy only balance those lost on offensive players, with the team overall showing more variance in scoring and losing one or two more games in down weeks as a result.

 

Dynabowl Rookie Draft versus ADP & IDP

Now that the dust has settled on the Rookie Draft, is it possible to determine who performed best in that draft? Maybe.  I have a go at it below.

Methodology

There are no combined Offensive Player and IDP rookie draft rankings for Dynasty leagues that I can find, so I’ve gone to Dynasty League Football’s rankings for both.

I took the Rookie ADP (Average Draft Position) rankings from June 2015 (click on Rookies tab), and the DLF IDP rankings for the defensive rookies. Then I took the Dynabowl draft and ordered it by Offensive and Defensive picks, and compared the data, providing a score based on deviation from ADP/IDP ranking.

For example, Leonard Williams was the first defensive pick in the Dynabowl, but is the 9th rated rookie by IDP, so he would garner a score of -8 for that pick (massive reach). The higher the score, the better.  This methodology has many flaws, the biggest being the range of different scoring methods for IDP leagues (the top three rookies here are Linebackers), but provides a baseline in the absence of something better.

Other flaws

This is looking at the draft in a vacuum; no trades are assessed.

Some of the players do not appear in either set of data – should owners be penalised for that? They are not penalised here.

 

DynaHarder

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.01 1 1 Gurley, Todd STL RB (R) 2 -1
2.05 15 15 Mariota, Marcus TEN QB (R) 23 -8
2.10 20 20 Cobb, David TEN RB (R) 20 0
4.01 32 27 Lockett, Tyler SEA WR (R) 27 0
4.02 33 28 Langford, Jeremy CHI RB (R) 37 -9
4.11 42 32 McBride, Tre TEN WR (R) 36 -4
5.11 55 38 Bell, Kenny TBB WR (R) 33 5
6.01 56 39 Diggs, Stefon MIN WR (R) 34 5
7.01 66 Pinion, Bradley SFO PN (R) N/A
Total             -12

 

Nothing too egregious here, a slight reach for Mariota and Langford.

 

Bombermen

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.05 5 5 Gordon, Melvin SDC RB (R) 3 2
2.08 18 18 Johnson, David ARI RB(R) 18 0
3.03 24 23 Conley, Chris KCC WR (R) 26 -3
4.06 37 31 Hardy, Justin ATL WR (R) 31 0
4.13 44 11 Waynes, Trae MIN CB (R) N/A N/A
5.09 53 16 Ray, Shane DEN LB (R) 22 -6
6.02 57 18 Jarrett, Grady ATL DT (R) N/A N/A
6.04 59 20 Flowers, Trey NEP DE (R) N/A N/A
7.06 71 26 Ringo, Christian GBP DE (R) N/A N/A
Total             -7

Bombermen suffer for going after Cornerbacks, and other ungraded IDPs. This ranking ignores the big win in seizing Gordon at #5.

 

Dungeoneers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.02 2 2 Cooper, Amari OAK WR (R) 1 1
1.03 3 3 White, Kevin CHI WR (R) 4 -1
2.11 21 21 Smith, Devin NYJ WR (R) 24 -3
4.04 35 30 Davis, Mike SFO RB (R) 28 2
5.03 47 36 Greene, Rashad JAC WR (R) 40 -4
6.03 58 19 Dawson, Paul CIN LB (R) 13 6
Total             1

 

Tamworth

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.04 4 4 Parker, DeVante MIA WR (R) 5 -1
2.02 12 12 Johnson, Duke CLE RB (R) 15 -3
3.04 25 2 Beasley, Vic ATL DE (R) 5 -3
3.05 26 24 Smelter, DeAndre SFO WR (R) 30 -6
4.03 34 29 Artis-Payne, Cameron CAR RB (R) 32 -3
4.09 40 9 Collins, Landon NYG S (R) 8 1
6.06 61 22 Perryman, Denzel SDC LB (R) 6 16
6.07 62 40 Williams, Karlos BUF RB (R) N/A N/A
7.03 68 44 Waller, Darren BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
Total             1

 

Tamworth are bailed out by a big IDP difference on Denzel Perryman – without that it would be much, much worse. However, none of the individual picks reach that much, so a case could be made for Tamworth knowing their man and going after him aggressively.

 

Kelkowski

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.07 7 7 Yeldon, T.J. JAC RB (R) 7 0
2.07 17 17 Funchess, Devin CAR WR (R) 16 1
3.07 28 4 Anthony, Stephone NOS LB (R) 2 2
4.07 38 7 Gregory, Randy DAL DE (R) 10 -3
5.07 51 15 Shelton, Danny CLE DT (R) N/A N/A
7.07 72 46 Montgomery, Ty GBP WR(R) 41 5
Total             5

Nothing to see here – no huge variation from the ADP, with the exception of taking the nose tackle in the 5th.

 

Firebirds

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.01 11 11 Green-Beckham, Dorial TEN WR (R) 8 3
3.06 27 3 Kendricks, Eric MIN LB(R) 1 2
3.10 31 26 Allen, Javorius BAL RB (R) 22 4
4.10 41 10 Edwards, Mario OAK DE (R) 14 -4
5.10 54 17 Anderson, Henry IND DE (R) 17 0
7.10 75 47 Petty, Bryce NYJ QB (R) 46 1
Total             6

Middle of the pack for the next few guys..

 

 

Brees

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.06 6 6 Coleman, Tevin ATL RB(R) 11 -5
1.10 10 10 Perriman, Breshad BAL WR (R) 9 1
2.06 16 16 Dorsett, Phillip IND WR (R) 13 3
2.09 19 19 Williams, Maxx BAL TE(R) 19 0
4.05 36 6 Thompson, Shaq CAR LB(R) 7 -1
6.09 64 41 Grayson, Garrett NOS QB (R) N/A N/A
7.09 74 28 Hicks, Jordan PHI LB (R) 20 8
Total             6

 

Champions

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
2.04 14 14 Ajayi, Jay MIA RB (R) 14 0
3.02 23 1 Williams, Leonard NYJ DE (R) 9 -8
3.09 30 5 Fowler, Dante JAC DE (R) 4 1
5.02 46 35 Rawls, Thomas SEA RB (R) N/A N/A
5.05 49 13 McKinney, Benardrick HOU LB (R) 3 10
6.05 60 21 Kikaha, Hau’oli NOS LB (R) 16 5
6.1 65 42 Pruitt, MyCole MIN TE (R) N/A N/A
7.05 70 25 Bennett, Michael JAC DT (R) N/A N/A
Total             8

 

Losers

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.08 8 8 Agholor, Nelson PHI WR (R) 6 2
2.03 13 13 Winston, Jameis TBB QB (R) 17 -4
3.08 29 25 Coates, Sammie PIT WR (R) 25 0
4.08 39 8 Odighizuwa, Owamagbe NYG DE (R) 11 -3
5.08 52 37 Walford, Clive OAK TE (R) 35 2
6.08 63 23 Ryan, Jake GBP LB (R) 15 8
7.08 73 27 Hunter, Danielle MIN DE (R) 23 4
Total             9

No picks from outside the equivalent ranking tables, a solid draft.

 

And the winner is….

Even without considering the Lacy Trade(TM), and the various other pieces picked up in the draft, The Dynasty of Sadness is the clear winner here, with a massive 27 points.

 

Draft Pick Overall Pick # Offensive Pick # Defensive Pick # Player ADP Rank IDP Rank Difference +/-
1.09 9 9 Abdullah, Ameer DET RB (R) 10 -1
3.01 22 22 Strong, Jaelen HOU WR (R) 12 10
4.12 43 33 Robinson, Josh IND RB(R) 29 4
5.01 45 34 Jones, Matt WAS RB (R) 21 13
5.04 48 12 Dupree, Bud PIT LB (R) 12 0
5.06 50 14 Armstead, Arik SFO DE(R) 19 -5
7.02 67 43 Carter, DeAndre BAL WR (R) N/A N/A
7.04 69 45 Zenner, Zach DET RB (R) 39 6
Total             27

 

Big value picks like Strong and Jones, and no major reaches, means that The People’s Republic has won the draft, at least by this dubious and highly suspect methodology. Well done Geoffrey.

 

Thoughts on Trading in Dynasty

There have been a number of trades in the DynaBowl now, several of which have been seized on for their possibly lopsided nature (including one I have been involved in), while I am also aware of a number of trade offers or negotiations made which, to my mind haven’t always offered fair value. This isn’t malicious but I do think expectations may be off in the value of some players (and draft picks for that matter). Ultimately, we GMs value our players and picks however we value them and we are quite entitled to do that. If we can find someone willing to pay a price then that is what whatever we were selling was worth. But these are not houses and players and picks are not traded for money. They are traded for one another. It should be easier to evaluate the value of the component pieces. I’m writing the following from my own perspective, to let you know how I value players. This may help if you want to negotiate for one of my players, or it may help you in your own valuations when it comes to dealing with other people. Or it may be something you really don’t care about.

So there are 5 factors I consider in the value of a player:

  • Age
  • Health
  • Past production
  • Situation
  • Contract

These all contribute to a bottom line of what the player’s future production may be. Well, except the contract.

So, taking those one at a time.

Age. This is dynasty so while the right now matters, so does building for the future. Younger players are valued over older players. Running back value will start to fall in the late 20s and will probably fall off a cliff in their 30s. Frank Gore is the exception not the rule for the longevity of a productive RB career. Wide receivers on the other hand tend to stay relevant until their early 30s, but from 32 onwards there’s the risk of terminal decline. Generally speaking, if a player has 3 years until they hit these threshold ages, I’m not going to factor it into the cost. A lot changes in 3 years in dynasty and in the NFL, so as long as I feel assured I’m getting 3 years minimum out of a player, I won’t really change my value.

Health. We all know that the NFL can be brutal, but some players seem better placed to make it through a season unscathed (*cough* Andrew Luck). As this is about missing games, I’ll factor in suspensions as part of ‘health’ overall. So, what are the chances the player misses games? Are they above the baseline based on history? Ultimately, anyone can get injured and miss a game here or there, but has the player made a habit of it? Compare Arian Foster to Marshawn Lynch. Regardless of anything else, Foster is always going to be valued slightly lower because he has shown himself to be more injury prone. Josh Gordon’s value, likewise, is never going to be the same as Julio Jones, because he has the suspensions hanging over his head and one more strike and he could be out of the league, no matter if he comes back (eventually) to put up back-to-back league leading seasons.

Past Production. While you’d instinctively say that this is key, you’d not always be right and that’s because of rookies and potential. But yes, what a player has done before is a good indicator of what they will do again. However, this is more so at some positions than others. I’ve looked into consistency of production from year to year and some positions are significantly more volatile than others. RBs are more volatile than WRs, for example. Cornerbacks? Horribly unreliable. Some of that lack of consistency at RB is undoubtedly down to the greater likelihood of injury at the position. But I need to look at how likely a player is to be able to repeat what’s gone before – DeMarco Murray is a great example. He has had one great season but how much was him and how much was the next category, situation? And what about his health? Hasn’t he almost fallen apart previously? There are plenty of players who have turned out to be one season wonders, so while a breakout season is great, I’ll pay more if there’s a longer record of good performance.

Counter to that, of course, is the rookie or sophomore player. There’s nothing (in the way of NFL performance) to go on with the former while the latter could have got lucky and the league might catch up with him. That obviously takes evaluation and can be very personal. Some people may see Kelvin Benjamin’s rookie year as the floor to his future performance, others may say that it won’t get much better than that. Neither is right or wrong – it’s just personal

Situation. This is mainly relevant if something is significantly different from previous seasons, or if it’s about a draft pick’s chances after landing somewhere in the draft. Jordy Nelson has done well in Green Bay, he’s still in Green Bay, everyone else relevant is still in Green Bay, our evaluation can tick all the boxes and move on. Where situation really matters in an evaluation is where the player is on a new team, or the team has a new coach or quarterback or competing player. Or perhaps last year the offensive line was really unlucky and injured the whole time so the RB didn’t get much in the way of yards before first contact, but the line has now been upgraded and is fitter so the RB might be undervalued because his situation is better than it was for last year’s performance. All sorts of ways to evaluate this.

Contract. This is – not an afterthought exactly – but a lesser consideration. For now. In future years when bigger name players come up for free agency because their teams can’t afford the renewals, this will be a bigger issue, but right now this has not proved to be a major concern. Obviously if I am looking to trade for a player I need to make sure I can afford them and whether the contract is a fair valuation on the talent of the player. Likewise, how the guaranteed money has been spread out (is it frontloaded so the player gets cheaper – which can be changed post trade of course) because the figure on MFL isn’t necessarily a good guide to the cost of the player over the course of the contract.

Other leagues have pointed out ‘salary dump’ trades which may be a thing we come to in the future. This is where a player is on too high of a contract and it is hurting his team’s chances. Rather than take a hit by releasing the player, the team trades the player to a team with loads of cap space as well as a second player that is cheap and has some value – eg Crippled Underperforming Veteran ($55)  and Cheap Highly-Rated Prospect ($2) both get traded from Team A to Team B, with nothing going in reverse. What Team A is getting for this deal is cap space, which is a legitimate return, while team B gets the prospect as well as losing a chunk of cap space. I am led to believe this genuinely happens in the NBA.

Balancing A Trade

So those are the factors to consider, but how does one balance a trade? You have to consider the ceiling and the floor of the players involved and assess the likely returns and the context of where a player is going. An older player with only 1 or 2 seasons of good production left may be a valuable final piece to a team challenging for titles but be worth next to nothing to a rebuilding team, for whom 2 years of good production will be over before they stand a chance of competing. You’re unlikely to find a perfect balance between 2 players, so instead it’s about trade offs – Team A loses X but gains Y – that may be losing guaranteed performance but gains the potential for a higher level of performance sometime down the line, or perhaps loses an average player in a good situation but gains a player with better historical performance who has now moved to a worse situation.

But often to balance a deal there needs to be some kind of exchange of draft picks. Draft picks are a flexible currency that can fill any gap, be it by an exchange – eg swapping a 2nd round pick for a 3rd – or complete handover of a pick. Where you might not be able to find a player on your roster that a) has the appropriate level of worth to balance things out and b) that fills a position or role of need on your opponent, a draft pick can be the perfect make-weight.

How I Value a Draft Pick

And here is the nub of the issue. Let’s get some basics out of the way first. A pick in future drafts is worth less than a pick in the current/next draft. Why? Because you’re effectively paying interest on the pick because the person receiving it doesn’t get to use it for a year – you’re paying for the trade on Hire Purchase (H.P.) rather than in cash upfront. The general rule in the NFL is that a future pick is worth a round less than one in the current draft – e.g. to buy a 2nd round pick now you must pay a 1st round pick next year. The DynaBowl allows you to trade picks two years in advance (so picks in the 2017 draft in 2015) and I wouldn’t knock a 2017 pick back another round, personally, but the one round rule is pretty fair.

There is a second reason for the deflation of value of future picks though and that is you don’t know where they will end up in the draft. Which is more valuable in a 10 team league – the 1.06 in 2015 or a 2016 first? The 1.06 because you know where it is. That 2016 first could be 1.01 but it could also be 1.10. You can project based on the team where you think it might end up but bad teams can do well and good teams badly so that will only get you so far. As such, even a team I might project to get a high pick in 2016 I would ask for more than the 2016 first for my 1.06. Then you factor in the H.P. nature of using next year’s picks and I might also be wanting a 3rd/4th round pick for losing out on my first now.

As for equating a player with a pick, I’ll try to talk you through a few of my players and the kind of value I would place on them:

AJ Green – 3-4 first round picks

Green is one of the elite WRs in the NFL. The above price is generic first round picks rather than specific positions – if I had a sense of where they might fall I could specify whether it was 3 or 4. If I knew they were the 1.01, 1.02 and 1.03 in the next draft, that would do it. If they were spread over a couple of years drafts and projected being mid-to-late round picks then I’d want 4 (that’s if I’d sell at all).

My thinking behind this kind of price is that, despite a poor year last year (dogged by a foot injury), Green is one of a select group of players who should put up top 10, if not top 5, performance at his position for the next 3-5 years. The chances of me finding a player in the first round of the draft who can put up elite levels of performance consistently are slim, even with top 3 picks. There aren’t many of these players and if there were they wouldn’t be called ‘elite’. Having several shots in the first round certainly won’t guarantee me a like-for-like replacement but it should mean I grab several players who will be meaningful contributors.

Because this is all picks and working on the assumption that I won’t get to use some or all of those picks before the next season there’s an H.P. element to this valuation too. I would have these picks but they would no longer contribute to my points in the next season (or seasons if some of those picks stretch to 2017). That’s another reason the number of picks is so high.

Kelvin Benjamin – 1.02-1.04

Benjamin has one season under his belt, so has a long time to go in the NFL and in the DynaBowl. He was one of three rookie WRs to make it to 1,000 yards, something which is usually a pretty rare feat. He is the primary WR in a team with a pretty strong QB (whatever you think of Cam, this isn’t like having the Jets or Bills QB throwing him the ball). He is a player we know can produce decent numbers in the NFL but equally there are a few red flags on him that suggest he’s not that likely to join the group that features Green, Julio Jones, Antonio Brown etc. As such the assumption at this point would be that he represents the middle ground of what you would expect from a top tier draft pick – he’s not a bust but will probably settle just outside the elite guys. He is a solid WR.

The upside of selling at this price is that you could draft someone who does become one of the elite players. The downside is that you could draft a bust (for example, Justin Blackmon or Trent Richardson). Trading for the pick would be a bold move in that you’re willing to take the gamble.

In the latest draft, I would have put Benjamin ahead of Parker and behind White and Cooper, placing him between 1.03 and 1.04 in the DynaBowl draft as it turned out, but the 1.02-1.04 cost is meant to be more generic.

Andre Ellington – 1.09-2.01

Ellington still has a lot of potential, but he was also a little too injury prone in 2014 and, with the drafting of David Johnson, has a threat on his own team. He’s an exciting pass-catching running back but may well become part of a committee. That doesn’t mean he can’t be effective and useful in fantasy though. The end of the first round/beginning of the second is a place where there’s a lot more risk than at the top of the first. Ellington has shown he can do it in the NFL, when fit, but has also raised question marks and risks. if we were looking at what he’d shown in 2013 he’d probably be a fraction lower than the Benjamin valuation but he’s dropped back now.

Some people are going to be lower on him and would never pay this price, and that’s fine, but some are going to see the upside and be happy to pay this. If the league isn’t as high in general a price for sale, might have to be a bit lower.

It’s at this kind of level that valuations tend to become more varied from one owner to the next.

Michael Floyd – 2.02-2.06

Floyd hasn’t suffered injuries, he’s just ended up as a pretty bog-standard lead-off receiver. Nothing special. Will do a job as the 3rd or 4th receiver in a Dynabowl line-up. 2014 had been touted as the year he would break out and it never happened, at least in part down to the multiple injuries at QB in Arizona, but also due to John Brown coming out of nowhere. He could still go big but it’s looking less and less likely.

Terrance Williams – low 3rd/high 4th round pick

Williams now seems defined as an average WR2 in Dallas which means that in fantasy terms he might be handy as a bye-week fill in or in case of injuries. He’ll have the occasional 100 yard game and will probably grab somewhere between 3 and 6 TDs a season, but he’s probably not a reliable every-week starter.

To be honest, he’s probably not going to get traded directly for a pick, but Williams might be the kind of makeweight who gets packaged into a deal and this is the kind of value I’d associate with him were I to deal him.

Josh Huff – low 3rd/high 4th round pick

Huff is kind of the opposite of Williams. He’s a guy who’s done next to nothing so far but is an interesting prospect. He’s supposed to be well liked in Philly and the Chip Kelly offense gets (some) people excited. Huff is the kind of player a lot of GMs like to stash because he might breakout. There’s a low chance but, the theory goes, if he does breakout he could go big. Part of being a dynasty GM is being primed for when undervalued players blow-up and taking advantage. Huff could be one of those guys. Or he could be nothing and be out of the league in 2 years.

Andre Williams – 4th round pick

Williams came into the Giants as a back-up to Rashard Jennings and was called into duty when Jennings unsurprisingly got injured early in the season. He clocked up over 850 all-purpose yards and 7 touchdowns, though didn’t look great while doing it. He was fine, but nothing more. The 4th round is where back-up running backs were drafted recently (a few at the end of the third round too). These are players unlikely to see much playing time, but if the guy in front of them goes down they will likely take on the workload. The value is probably higher to the person holding the lead back, ie Rashard Jennings, in this case, than anyone else, but the value is still there. Especially for a player backing up someone injury prone.

Mario Williams – ???

This is tough. I genuinely have no idea where I’d value him. At DE he was a consistent top 5 player and the drop off after him was fairly steep, but at LB I don’t know that he’s as valuable. Equally, in the new Rex Ryan system (see situation above), I have no idea if he will generate as many fantasy points. I wouldn’t want to let him go but there’s always the chance an offer could come in that would make me sit up and think.

I put this in just to illustrate that you can’t always put a price on everyone’s head.

 

Does it matter if people’s valuations differ?

No. They are bound to differ. One person will look at a player and see all the risks while another will see all the potential. And, as I said before, a veteran with a 2 year window is of no use to someone rebuilding but is loads of use to someone challenging for the title.

However…

Players sold for significantly under market value present two problems for the league – the small picture and the big picture.

The small picture is that every trade that occurs establishes precedent and influences negotiations that happen in future trades. “I’m not paying Z because he only paid X to get Y”, “If A is worth B then C must be worth D”. While one or two trades might not have an impact, the more that occur, the harder it will be to construct a fair trade.

Likewise, the GMs involved in selling off players or picks under market value may find themselves a target for unbalanced trade offers looking to take advantage of them which could lead them to misinterpret value or to back away from trading. Likewise, other players may stop trading if they can’t see a clear (and big) win for them in the trade. Ideally trades should give each side a win, but it’s inevitable that each trade can be interpreted differently and so could be seen as a win for either side by different GMs. If GMs get used to seeing trades in which there’s a clear (and sizeable) winner, they may not wish to work on producing a balanced trade, insisting on the big-win-or-nothing approach.

And then there’s the bigger picture which is that lopsided trades inevitably lead to the significant weakening of one team and strengthening of another, altering the competitive balance of the league. At first this should be part of the ebb and flow but if it becomes a consistent trend my concern would be that one or two teams could become very strong and one or two could become cut off at the bottom. The ongoing risk from this is that the GMs at the bottom decide they don’t want the challenge of turning their team around and quit. Likewise, GMs in the middle could get despondent if one or two teams become particularly dominant based on lopsided trading.

I don’t think this is an issue now. I think we’re all new to this and minimal trading has gone on before. Everyone is slowly making their way through it and learning how to get the most out of what they have. This post wasn’t to castigate. It was supposed to offer an insight into how I value players and provide something to think about how others do. You may agree or disagree with my values. That’s fine.

However, I think that as this is a friendly league rather than one with a bunch of internet randoms (though you could argue we are friendly internet randoms, of course) we shouldn’t try to take advantage of each other. Too much. Everyone wants to be the guy who gets one over on another owner but given we all have different experience levels and have done differing amounts of research, there’s always room for a little rip-off.

If you’re not sure if you’re getting good value in a trade, there are resources. If you google dynasty fantasy football you can find plenty of sites (I’m not going to hand this to you on a plate – find the URLs yourself). Check out ADP (average draft position) information to get a sense of how valuable players are considered in general. There are forums you can ask questions. If necessary, and if you feel comfortable doing so, ask a fellow league member, someone you feel you can trust. I am happy to offer my services and I am sure a few others would too, though whether you trust us is a different matter.

What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Defence)

This is the part Manboob has been waiting for – the safeties (and the rest of the defence). So without further ado, let’s get straight into it…

While it might seem sensible to go deeper and consider the 2nd and 3rd rounds, it’s ultimately too low a contract in the third round and the range of players it brings in makes it a bit of a crap shoot to go that low and hope for anything more useful to arise from it.

Defensive Ends

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01 $20, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Elvis Dumervil
Justin Tuck
Mario Williams
171.50
145.00
157.75
158.1 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.02 $19, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014
Cameron Wake
Greg Hardy
Robert Quinn
165.75
144.50
155.75
155.3 J.J. Watt (198.11)
Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
1.03
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
5 2012
2013
2014
John Abraham
Muhammed Wilkerson
Jerry Hughes
164.50
138.85
137.50
147.0 Dwight Freeney (161.08)
Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
1.08 $13, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Antonio Smith
Cameron Jordan
Everson Griffen
147.75
138.00
131.75
139.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Carlos Dunlap
Chandler Jones
Demarcus Ware
147.15
137.25
130.05
138.2 Jared Allen (160.64)
Julius Peppers (155.05)
Tony Brackens (150.48)
Terrell Suggs (147.48)
Robert Mathis (144.81)
Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
1.10 $11, 4 years 9 2012
2013
2014
Michael Bennett
Carlos Dunlap
Carlos Dunlap
133.75
132.75
125.50
130.7 Robert Quinn (136.06)
Charles Grant (134.71)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
10 2012
2013
2014
Jared Allen
Jared Allen
Calais Campbell
132.50
130.75
118.80
127.4 Will Smith (129.22)
Willie McGinest (128.41)
Trent Cole (127.88)
Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
12 2012
2013
2014
Mario Williams
Osi Umenyiora
Chris Clemons
131.25
124.80
113.75
123.3 Tamba Hali (127.05)
Simeon Rice (126.21)
Tracy Scroggins (125.9)
Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014
Cameron Jordan
Rob Ninkovich
Charles Johnson
130.50
119.25
113.00
120.9 Alonzo Spellman (125.62)
Mario Williams (125.54)
Michael Strahan* (122.96)
Jevon Kearse (121.85)
Elvis Dumervil (121.28)
Aaron Schobel (115.26)
Kevin Carter (115.09)
Cameron Wake (114.91)
Cliff Avril (114.87)

Financially speaking you’d be paying a defensive end more than everyone except Quinn and Watt, so at the very top of the draft you’d be looking for a seriously talented player and any end taken in the first two rounds should be a viable starter over a 4 year period.  One thing to consider when taking an end is that this is a position where the best players have good longevity – Peppers, Allen, Suggs, Watt, Freeney are guys who’ve been good since they joined the league and they have been good for a long time since.

Defensive Tackles

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
1 2012
2013
2014
Geno Atkins
Kyle Williams
Ndamukong Suh
254.00
204.50
201.50
220 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
1.05 $16, 4 years 2 2012
2013
2014
Ndamukong Suh
Gerald McCoy
Aaron Donald
197.00
180.25
188.00
188.4
1.06
1.07
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
3 2012
2013
2014
Nick Fairley
Nick Fairley
Sen’Derrick Marks
150.25
172.00
177.50
166.6 Reggie White (173.41)
1.08 $13, 4 years 4 2012
2013
2014
Henry Melton
Ndamukong Suh
Marcel Dareus
132.50
152.00
166.00
150.2 Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
1.09 $12, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
Gerald McCoy
Marcel Dareus
Gerald McCoy
132.25
134.00
157.75
141.3 Reggie White (173.41)
Chester McGlockton (144.07)
D’Marco Farr (135.2)
Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
1.10 $11, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Kyle Williams
Jason Hatcher
Johnathan Hankins
132.25
126.75
131.25
130.1 Kevin Williams (135.08)
Aaron Donald (133.45)
Cliff Avril (132.05)
Chandler Jones (131.5)
Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammad Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
7 2012
2013
2014
Dwan Edwards
Cullen Jenkins
Stephen Paea
112.75
122.00
127.25
120.7 Justin Smith (131.21)
John Henderson (129.32)
Grant Wistrom (128.28)
Muhammed Wilkerson (123.74)
Warren Sapp* (121.98)
Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
Vince Wilfork
Sen’Derrick Marks
Kyle Williams
111.00
118.25
121.20
116.8 Trevor Pryce (118.57)
Corey Simon (118.36)
Shaun Ellis (117.94)
Cameron Jordan (117.91)
Sheldon Richardson (117.88)
Bryant Young (115.77)
Tony McCoy (115.1)
Vonnie Holliday (113.99)
Jim Flanigan (113.97)

There’s a little bit of cross-over between tackles and ends, but basically any pick in the first two rounds would need to be a clear starter over the four years of their contract, even at the back end of the second round. Guys who’ve been at the top of the scoring in recent years don’t feature in the list of rookies, and that suggests that even the best DTs don’t necessarily perform well from their first days in the league. All told, spending even a late second round pick on a DT is going to be a stretch.

Linebackers

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
4 2012
2013
2014
Lawrence Timmons
Navorro Bowman
Clay Matthews
168.25
198.55
156.50
174.4 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
1.03 $18, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
Zach Brown
Jerrell Freeman
Connor Barwin
165.10
185.05
155.25
168.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.04 $17, 4 years 6 2012
2013
2014
Demarcus Ware
Alec Ogletree
Jamie Collins
164.75
173.55
155.25
164.5 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
1.05 $16, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
Rob Ninkovich
Daryl Smith
Lavonte David
155.50
165.10
146.50
155.7 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
1.06 $15, 4 years 11 2012
2013
2014
Justin Houston
DeAndre Levy
Junior Galette
139.25
149.90
130.25
147.2 Odell Thurman (191.03)
Ed McDaniel (169.68)
Patrick Willis (159.28)
Lavonte David (158.43)
Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
1.07
1.08
1.09
$14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years
14 2012
2013
2014
Lance Briggs
Danny Trevathan
Terrell Suggs
137.30
144.95
130.00
139.8 Brian Urlacher (148.85)
Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
1.10 $11, 4 years 15 2012
2013
2014
Ryan Kerrigan
Vontaze Burfict
Luke Kuechly
137.30
144.95
130.00
137.4 Luke Kuechly (146.62)
Jerrell Freeman (144.72)
Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
17 2012
2013
2014
Shaun Phillips
Ryan Kerrigan
Brandon Marshall
136.50
143.75
121.00
133.8 Von Miller (142.78)
Ray Lewis (141.32)
Ryan Kerrigan (138.07)
Zach Thomas (134.11)
Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
2.05
2.06
2.07
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
19 2012
2013
2014
Rob Jackson
Brian Orakpo
Bruce Irvin
132.65
136.65
116.40
128.6 Terrell Suggs (134.01)
Jon Beason (132.95)
Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
2.08
2.09
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
21 2012
2013
2014
Derrick Johnson
Derrick Johnson
Danny Lansanah
128.25
134.40
113.50
125.4 Clay Matthews (130.59)
Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 22 2012
2013
2014
Luke Kuechly
Trent Cole
Jason Worilds
127.50
133.50
113.00
124.7 Justin Houston (130.22)
Lofa Tatupu (130.15)
NaVorro Bowman (126.78)
DeMeco Ryans (126.41)
James Laurinaitis (125.24)
Takeo Spikes (124.32)
Joey Porter (123.98)
Kirk Morrison (122.53)
LaMarr Woodley (119.65)

Let’s face it, you’d have to be a little nuts to blow a top 10 pick on a Linebacker, not that they’re not capable of delivering value for that, but they lack the upside of an offensive player. All of which said, a second round linebacker would be looking at producing a starter’s performance over 4 years, but as a 2nd or 3rd best on your team in that role, and unlike DTs there’s plenty of recent comparators to suggest there’s value to be had. With more teams transitioning to 3-4 defences, outside guys playing as pass rushing ends can represent good value with DE-type performance at an LB price and as with DEs, there’s enough in the comparative rookies to suggest that a good LB is a decent long-term option at the position who can produce for years. Unlike ends however there’s not really the late round breakout stars, if they’re not taken in the first two rounds of the NFL draft then they quickly drop into fantasy irrelevance.

Cornerbacks

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
1.03
1.04
1.05
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
$18, 4 years
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
N/A N/A
1.06 $15, 4 years 1 2012
2013
2014
Aqib Talib
Brandon Boykin
Charles Tillman
234.60
159.48
140.45
178.2 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
1.07
1.08
1.09
$14, 4 years
$13, 4 years
$12, 4 years
2 2012
2013
2014
Richard Sherman
Deangelo Hall
Kyle Fuller
204.20
157.65
132.35
164.7
1.10 $11, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Tim Jennings
Richard Sherman
Vontae Davis
178.35
151.95
130.15
153.5 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
4 2012
2013
2014
Patrick Peterson
Alterrun Verner
Brent Grimes
159.85
142.28
128.00
143.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
2.05
2.06
2.07
2.08
2.09
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
6 2012
2013
2014
Janoris Jenkins
Tramon Williams
Joe Haden
155.55
135.50
123.75
138.3 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Casey Hayward
Captain Munnerlyn
Jason McCourty
142.85
130.85
123.50
132.4 Richard Sherman (151.1)
Nate Clements (141.34)
Jairus Byrd (136.88)
Charles Tillman (131.62)
Leon Hall (131.62)
Rashean Mathis (131.58)
Kyle Fuller (129.65)

Well, this is painful. There’s no corner in the league on more than a top 5 pick, and you’re looking at any corner taken in the first two rounds being a bad value pick who’s going to have to immediately produce great numbers, and even at the end of the second round you’re looking at guys who’d be in the top 5 rookies of the last 20 years. One thing to note, as with the linebacker position, there’s a pretty clear drop in the performance of players picked after the first two rounds, and despite the well-known stories about Sherman and the Seahawks finding great backs cheap in the late rounds, this is the exception rather than the rule, and in the case of Sherman a significant exception at that.

Safeties

Pick Contract Rank Actual Performers Average Comparisons
1.01
1.02
$20, 4 years
$19, 4 years
2 2012
2013
2014
Jairus Byrd
Troy Polamalu
James Ihedigbo
155.35
161.35
150.10
155.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.03 $18, 4 years 3 2012
2013
2014
Reshad Jones
Antrel Rolle
Mike Adams
144.35
160.80
140.90
148.7 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
1.04
1.05
1.06
1.07
$17, 4 years
$16, 4 years
$15, 4 years
$14, 4 years
4 2012
2013
2014
Eric Weddle
Michael Mitchell
Glover Quin
139.60
141.55
139.70
140.3 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
1.08 $13, 4 years 5 2012
2013
2014
LaRon Landry
William Moore
Rashead Johnson
135.95
139.35
137.35
137.6 Ed Reed (156.29)
Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
1.09 $12, 4 years 7 2012
2013
2014
Thomas DeCoud
Earl Thomas
Tashaun Gipson
132.90
130.85
131.80
131.9 Keith Lyle (140.74)
Roy Williams (139.51)
Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
1.10 $11, 4 years 8 2012
2013
2014
William Moore
TJ Ward
Charles Woodson
131.35
126.95
124.90
127.7 Jairus Byrd (138.22)
O.J. Atogwe (136.04)
Rashean Mathis (133.06)
Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
2.01
2.02
2.03
2.04
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 years
$10, 3-4 year
10 2012
2013
2014
Danieal Manning
James Ihedigbo
Reggie Nelson
124.35
123.15
120.90
122.8 Willie Clay (130.58)
Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
2.05
2.06
2.07
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
$9, 3-4 years
11 2012
2013
2014
Morgan Burnett
Charles Woodson
Kemal Ishmael
123.35
122.30
118.45
121.4 Kerry Rhodes (127.78)
Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
2.08
2.09
$8, 3-4 years
$8, 3-4 years
12 2012
2013
2014
Major Wright
Eric Weddle
Ryan Mundy
122.25
118.75
116.95
119.3 Greg Wesley (126.85)
Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
2.10 $7, 3-4 years 13 2012
2013
2014
Michael Griffin
Aaron Williams
Kendrick Lewis
122.15
115.80
116.20
118.1 Devin McCourty (126.15)
Michael Griffin (124.62)
Sean Taylor (121.93)
Harrison Smith (119.53)
Victor Green (118.12)
Kurt Schulz (117.64)
Mike Brown (117.57)
Earl Thomas (117.43)
Anthony Henry (115.88)

Given Manboob’s love of the high-price Safety, it’s not a surprise to see you could just about justify the top pick of the draft on one. That said, it would only be justified if you could pick Ed Reed, who might just be the best Safety in the history of the NFL. Even then, you’re talking about only just justifying the price tag. All of which said, by the end of the second round a safety is not a terrible pick. I personally wouldn’t – the opportunity to get a good DE or DT there is solid, and the spread of players at relatively makeable scores suggest that it wouldn’t be hard to find any Safety to fill a roster gap, but they’re not an unreliable pick and can score reasonably well from the early part of their careers, with less pressure to be a top guy straight away compared to the cornerback market. Of course, it’s entirely possible this is more a reflection of the insanity of the Dynabowl’s safety market, rather than a real value statement.

Ultimately, there’s no real evidence to suggest that selecting a defensive player in even the first round makes a good value pick, any player picked is going to need to justify not just a roster spot, but a regular starting spot in his first couple of years. But, by the middle of the second round, they’re definitely players to start thinking about and at positions like CB, S and Linebacker where the performance of high picks v lower ones suggests NFL teams are pretty handy at drafting players it’s possibly worth considering reaching and over-paying (as long as you aren’t in a terrible cap situation) simply because there’s such a strong correlation, compared to other positions, between draft pick and rookie success.

The Dyna Hard Draft Pick Trade Value Chart is Leaked

Sources close to the Dyna Hard camp have compiled the following document, said to contain a combination of the thoughts of the team GM, Chris Braithwaite and the results of alleged conversations and emails between Braithwaite and Jimmy Johnson. The veracity of the document is unknown.

Holding the first pick in the draft gets you thinking about trades. That’s what I’ve found anyway. So I used my contacts to get in touch with Jimmy Johnson, creator of the most widely accepted NFL Draft Trade Value chart, to see whether he wants to use his knowledge of the Dynabowl (he’s a big follower – and a massive East Flanders fan) to create a prospective chart for the league as it heads in to its first rookie draft. Being that its out of football season and Johnson’s time isn’t taken up with applying ludicrous amounts of hairspray, the former Cowboys coach was delighted to take up the challenge.

The first issue that Jimmy told me we had was accounting for there only being 10 teams in the league. “Well Jimmy,” I said, “why not just collect the picks in your chart into groups of 3 or 4, and average them out?”.

Jimmy thought this was an interesting idea. “So, the first 3 picks in the NFL draft are worth 3,000, 2,600 and 2,200. That means in the Dynabowl they would be worth a total of 7,800, and an average of 2,600. Good plan. Let’s do it.”

So using this methodology, picks 1, 2, 5, 6, 7 and 10 of each round were the average of 3 NFL picks. Picks 3, 4, 8 and 9 were average across 4 picks. So here’s the Jimmy produced.

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 2600 563.33 260 108 42 26.6 13.8
2 1700 530 245 96 39.5 25.4 12.6
3 1375 505 232.5 85 38.25 24 11.2
4 1255 465 212.5 75 36.25 22.8 10
5 1050 430 195 72 34.5 21.4 8.6
6 908.33 400 180 66 33.03 20.2 7.4
7 810 370 165 60 31.8 19 6.2
8 730 325 147.5 53 30.4 17.6 4.8
9 660 305 134 48.5 29.2 16.4 3.6
10 603.33 276 120 45 27.8 15 2.3

 

“I love it! Love it!” exclaimed Jimmy.

I, however, was less enthused. “I’m not so sure Jimmy. This is great, but there’s a problem. The Dynabowl and the NFL aren’t quite equivalent.”

“Well sure,” said Jimmy. “The Dynabowl is far more important. The Super Bowl trophy doesn’t even have an animal on it.”

“Good point Jimmy, but that’s not what I mean. The big issue is that the Dynabowl doesn’t draft offensive linemen. There are roughly 25 core players in an NFL team, but 5 of them are ineligible for the Dynabowl. We need to fix the chart to factor them out.”

“Hmmm. Well, no one notices the big galoots unless they mess up, so I’m in full agreement with the Dynabowl eliminating them. So what do we do?”

“Well Jimmy, the Dynabowl doesn’t use 20% of the players the NFL drafts, so we need to remove 20% of the picks from the chart somehow.”

Jimmy thought for a moment. “No one likes offensive linemen. But don’t tell Larry Allen I said that. He’d eat me. We could just remove the bottom 20% of picks?”

“So from the 224 non-compensatory picks, we’d remove 45 picks? That would mean that our draft includes the first 179 picks in your draft chart?”

“You got it skipper.”

“Skipper? Ok Jimmy. So the Dynabowl draft has 70 picks. 179 into 70 is about 2.5. So that would mean we’d just count down your chart, and do the value of each 2.5 picks.”

“Exactly champ, exactly. Explain it to me?”

“Champ? You know I’m picking first overall, right? So the first 2 picks are worth 3,000 and 2,600. That’s 5,600. The third pick is worth 2,200. We take half of that value… 1,100 Jimmy, stop looking confused. That means the first pick is worth 6,700. The second pick gets that half of the third pick, plus the value of the next two picks (1,800 and 1,700), so its worth 4,600. The third pick is worth the 6th, 7th and half the 8th, so 3,800.”

“Brilliant! Perfect! Those are all definitely numbers. Can you just fiddle around with the rest of the chart for me? That’s how we did it in my Cowboys days – everyone else did the work and I took the credit.”

“We know Jimmy, we know.”

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
1 6700 1710 955 522.5 238 114.5 79.3
2 4600 1590 905 490 216 108 77.5
3 3800 1480 845 460 204 102 74.3
4 3350 1400 780 427.5 191 100.75 71.7
5 3025 1330 726 397.5 179 97.25 69.3
6 2725 1270 678.5 365 166 94 66.7
7 2400 1205 647.5 338 154 91 64.3
8 2175 1145 615 312 141 87.75 61.7
9 1960 1080 585 288 129 84.75 59.3
10 1840 1020 552.5 262 120.5 81.7 56.7

 

“There you go Jimmy, what do you reckon?”

“That looks great! Brilliant! Fantastic! Jerry will love it.”

“Who is Jerry”? Never mind. It seems fairly sensible. The league kind of agrees that picks below the 2nd round are likely to have minimal value, and it seems to show that to trade up to get a pick in the third you shouldn’t have to pay too much. I think it overvalues the number 1 pick a little bit (which I’m not gonna complain about as the owner of it this year). To go from number 3 to number 1 you’d have to give up your 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 4th and 6th round picks. That’s not right. But apart from that it looks great. But then that’s a criticism of your chart in the NFL too.”

“Look kid, this draft value chart thing is hooey. We made it to try to cheat the system, and its seems to have become the system. Every team has different values on picks, and that changes based on who is available at any given pick. Sometimes people will overpay based on this, sometimes people will underpay. Our chart was based on a series of pick trades over a series of years, and its stood up even over different collective bargaining agreements. But only time will tell if its applicable to your league. Quit worrying kid. Now how much am I getting paid for this?”

“Kid? I’m 30. As to money… I’ll just pop out and get it for you.”

 

I wonder if he’s still waiting there?