Author: David Slater

A 2022 Preview

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Some years ago Ian did a preview looking at the ADP of the players on each team. It’s an interesting idea – because we’re a dynasty league teams will be in different places of a cycle – and the idea was to look at how teams were set up to win now. So I thought I’d repeat it, but with a twist.

In Ian’s analysis he used ADP, but ADP has a couple of problems to my mind – we’re not a redraft league, so we don’t have picks for all players, only rookies, and they can’t be easily equated to salaries. Picks assume an equal value between 1 and 2, 2 and 3 and so on. But if you have a clear top two with a wafer thin difference in value and then a gap to a tier with players 3-5 then this isn’t really reflected. ADP theoretically smooths this a little, as players 1 and 2 should have ADPs around 1.5 and 3-5 around 4, but it still retains the core problem of valuing each pick 1 more than the one before, so the gap between 1.5 and 4 is still an arbitrary 2.5 picks with no recognition that a pick value isn’t a flat amount.

AAV on the other hand says how much of a fixed budget someone is willing to spend on a player. So the difference between 1 and 2 in that ranking could be a couple of cents, while 3-5 is more like a couple of dollars. Also, critically, it’s a currency we use for our salary cap, so it opens up some additional fun options.

Whether it’s ADP or AAV, both methodologies have some similar problems, that I’ll just touch on:
– Not every league runs IDP, and many that do won’t have a full defensive, or will use different defensive scoring. So defensive value isn’t really indicative in the way that offensive is. An example of this, is that only 2 of the top 10 CBs by ADP are even rostered in our league. Because only two CBs have ADP values.
– 2QB leagues are increasingly popular, these inflate the value of QBs significantly, but they do so across the board, so it should balance out on a team-by-team comparison. It does however mean that AAV values for QBs are inflated and so comparison of salary to AAV is less useful at this position.

Anyway, enough of the boring stuff, let’s have a look at how it shakes out.

I could list top AAV by position, but easier just to link you to the AAV info in MFL (note, this link is correct, the one on the MFL homepage is for 2021).

You can access the googledoc with all the data in here, it is a live doc, pulling via the API, so figures may not exactly match.

So, onto the good stuff, who’s got the most valuable team?

Team Value Offense Value
Dyna Hard $905.79 $857.71
Kelkowski $768.82 $707.27
Brees $720.65 $671.62
Champions $705.15 $664.05
Losers $647.24 $634.16
Sadness $638.76 $610.51
Bombermen $579.40 $524.22
The Infamous Two $557.52 $494.21
Dungeoneers $557.19 $548.19
Hawkeman $449.11 $421.77

Let’s start with a positive – the average spend in the dynabowl on offence is $400.20 so I adjusted AAV’s for offence based on that, and everyone’s AAV beats that baseline value, so everyone’s got some value there. Rookie contracts help a lot with that, for example Breece Hall(!) is somehow the top AAV on MFL, and his 20 dollar salary for this year against his AAV is 31 (before rescaling to the baseline of $400), so his salary to AAV rating is 944%. More on that sort of thing in a bit.

Chris is a clear leader here, lead by a receiver group with a total AAV of almost 400 on their own ($397.60), by far the most valuable group in the league, ahead of Ben’s receivers ($308.95). Neil’s bottom placed ranking can largely be traced to this same position group as his receivers value up at only $102.41, significantly behind the next worst in Mike ($174.93) and the Commish ($168.28).

The top RB group belongs to Ian ($280.18) but there’s a cluster of closely matched 2nd placed groups of Pete ($234.88), Chris ($234.52) and Mike ($231.08) and Ben ($225.40). People in auction drafts just don’t like Jonathan Taylor as much as you’d think. The lowest valued RB groups belong to T2 ($122.14) and the Commish ($137.51).

Ian, Pete and Neil have more valuable RB groups than WR groups, where for everyone else it’s the reverse.

It’s closer in the QB group – Max at $158.36 has the most valuable group, just ahead of the Losers ($153.32) and Chris ($149.40). While the Commish has the most valuable TE group ($98.01). While there’s a couple of others who are close, Neil is the only GM who’s QB group is more valuable that one of the two big skill position groups (his aforementioned WR group). Unsurprisingly, everyone’s TEs are their least valuable group.

Defence, as previously alluded to, receives an average spend of $165 in salary. In AAV, the highest total defensive value belonged to T2 at $62. So, yeah, that pretty much makes the point about IDP in our league vs others. The figures are all in the sheet, but I’m not going to waste time on trying to draw any conclusions.

So far, so good. But you can’t and won’t play all these players. So let’s go deeper. What about the starting line-ups?Based on a line-up of 1QB, 3RBs, 4WRs how do the teams value up? (figures rounded)

Team Starters QB RB WR TE
Dyna Hard $460 $68 $127 $215 $50
Kelkowski $416 $78 $174 $149 $15
Brees $440 $40 $147 $230 $23
Champions $427 $56 $140 $215 $14
Losers $431 $80 $144 $188 $19
Sadness $445 $62 $196 $128 $59
Bombermen $360 $85 $110 $120 $45
Tamworth Two $379 $45 $100 $196 $37
Dungeoneers $453 $58 $219 $166 $11
Hawkeman $300 $55 $135 $84 $26

What this highlights is how depth plays a part in total value. Chris’s WR group ($215) is not just not miles ahead now, it’s not even ahead. While it’s still a strong group (stars and scrubs is a legit strategy in Auction drafts), it’s only joint second alongside Max and behind Ben ($230). The gap from these three to 4th and 5th is only 20 dollars too.

Even more of a drop than Chris’ WRs are Ian’s RBs drop from the highest value group to third, behind Mike ($196) and Pete ($219). Who’ve topped the last two drafts, showing that rookie value.

Meanwhile, in terms of overall value… it’s actually pretty tight: Chris leads at 460, but 7 teams are above 414 dollars (90% of Chris’ value). Only Neil, once again let down by his receivers, T2 and the Commish are not in this group.

As I mentioned earlier, one big difference between ADP and AAV is that AAV allows us to compare what someone would pay for someone this year, with what we are paying for someone this year, so we can look at value – both best and worst – in this case, expressed in terms of salary as a percentage of AAV (i.e. lower is better value)

Team Value RB value WR value
Squad Starters Starters Starters
Dyna Hard 51.2% 36.7% 52.7% 37.1%
Kelkowski 59.4% 56.5% 34.0% 92.1%
Brees 47.6% 36.1% 29.2% 53.7%
Champions 47.7% 40.1% 49.8% 45.4%
Losers 58.3% 53.4% 62.3% 78.5%
Sadness 82.9% 90.9% 79.7% 120.6%
Bombermen 67.0% 49.9% 47.1% 84.4%
Tamworth Two 82.4% 84.4% 110.5% 65.9%
Dungeoneers 87.3% 72.8% 20.1% 163.4%
Hawkeman 93.2% 85.3% 79.4% 127.9%

OK, I’m going to start to try and say less as this is already quite long, but some highlights… T2 are the only team paying over 100% of their AAV for their RBs. It’s tough to do, but congrats. Benefitting from back to back 1st picks spent on RBs, the dungeoneers are paying a league-low 20.1%.
At receiver the opposite is true, the dungeoneers are paying a whopping 163.4% of the market values of their receiver. The Sadness are also paying over the odds at receiver and so are the Hurricanes, tough break when they’ve such a low value, but with others where you might be overpaying one or two individuals and driving total salary up (say hello DeAndre Hopkins) in Neil’s case it’s more that people don’t value what he has, so any sort of salary looks like an overpay.
Lastly, the Dungeoneers (87.3%) and Hurricanes (93.2%), led by those high cost receiver groups have the least discount on their offensive squad, though neither is overpaying vs AAV overall. Pete’s cheaper starting group (72.8%) means that he drops out of the top two for starters, replaced by the Sadness who go straight to number one with a bullet (90.9%).

At the other end of the scale, The Brees have the best value overall group and starting group just ahead of Chris by 0.6% for starters, while the Champions are only 0.1% behind in the total offence.

The two things that seem to have the biggest impacts on this are having young receivers who’ve got a good season or two under their belt but are, still on their rookie deal, (Lamb, Chase, Jefferson) or box-fresh rookie RBs (Harris, Walker). Although, as this last table shows, the best value is not always where you’d expect it (in fact, it almost never is):

Team MVP! MVP! MVP! Least Valuable Player
Dyna Hard Kenny Pickett Jalen Raegor
Kelkowski Jalen Hurts Curtis Samuel
Brees Trey Hendrickson Darius Slayton
Champions Jaquan Brisker(!) Quintez Cephus
Losers Justin Herbert Anthony Schwartz
Sadness Cole Holcomb Trey Sermon
Bombermen Demarcus Lawrence DJ Chark (doo doo do do do do)
Tamworth Two Justin Jefferson Odell Beckham
Dungeoneers Joe Burrow DeAndre Hopkins
Hawkeman Malik Willis N’Keal Harry

Of course, value is ultimately a measure of what people are willing to pay for a player, it’s not indicative of how they’ll actually perform. The wisdom of the crowd has C-Mac’s one working hamstring as a top two pick by ADP and the highest value player overall (in PPR formats), so I’m not sure how far to trust it anyway, but if nothing else, it offers an interesting insight into who’s got what would be considered the ‘best’ teams at this point and the best position groups. Meanwhile, should we pass a emergency rule that Chris and Neil should swap receiver groups?

Post-Draft Pre-Draft Analysis: Wide Receivers

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Editors note: This is one from the archives, having not been published back in May, when it was relevant. Still, now you can see if he still holds up… Anyway, onwards!

Obviously, this review follows a little later than the other reviews, at QB and RB, so trying to do it exactly the same way is going to be silly, but I still want to avoid just reviewing landing spots and staying with player evaluation and how their skills might fit certain teams/situations. But before getting into individuals, a quick recap of what a WR offers you as a draft pick.

Wide Receiver is on paper the worst of both worlds compared to RBs and QBs. RBs offer three years of good performance for the investment, but the best are not necessarily the highest drafted, so they have bust potential. QBs tend to offer worse performance, with only a handful being fantasy relevant (not helped by the low number of fantasy relevant QBs in general) however the highest drafted tend to be the best performers. This is shared by WRs who also offer the unpredictability of RBs in finding the best ones – obviously it’s hard to judge off one or two years performance, but Coleman, Dotson, Treadwell, White, Parker were all top five Dynabowl picks who’ve looked nothing like worth that value – and the NFL’s bust rate (considerably lower bar than fantasy’s) is something like 50% for first round receivers, so obviously there’s issues with scouting and evaluating college talent in general.

So why would you spend a high pick on a receiver? Because it’s worth it when you hit – they’re generally durable, and offer a longer term return than a running back if you can nail the right pick. Plus we need a lot of them – most teams will be using a flex on a WR, meaning up to 40 are starting most weeks. What you’re really spending a pick on is less what you get during the rookie years, but more first refusal on a potential stud after 3 or 4 years. If they’re a day one success like Beckham that’s a rarity, and a major bonus (though maybe not so much when that 3rd/4th year extension rolls around). With both these things in mind, it is worth pointing out that attempting to evaluate players who NFL teams fail to evaluate particularly well most of the time is probably going to be a waste of time, but what else can I do now? I’ve committed to it.

Corey Davis (Western Michigan) Let’s start by correcting a misunderstanding I’ve seen floated a couple of times around the league. Antonio Brown came out of the MAC – not from Western Michigan as some have incorrectly claimed, but Central Michigan – but so do lots of players. Tom Brady came out of Michigan (not Central, Eastern or Western, just plain old Michigan in the Big 10) and so did Chad Henne. That does not mean we should use Brady as some kind of template for Henne’s career, just as we shouldn’t use Antonio Brown as a template for projecting Corey Davis.

There’s other flaws in that thinking too; Davis goes to Tennessee and their Exotic Smashmouth offence, while Brown went to Pittsburgh and has played most of his career in a deep strike, pass-happy Todd Haley offence with Roethlisberger; Davis is a top five pick, not a mid-round project and will be expected to produce immediately; Brown was not the standout at college level that Davis was; Western Michigan is not the talent spotter/producer Central Michigan was around the time in question (JJ Watt and Joe Staley also went through that program), and has no real track record of producing great players (though Terry Crews did go through there). Most of all though it ignores other issues, touched on above in the Henne/Brady comparison – there are dozens of MAC players who don’t crack it at the top level. Why on Earth does it make sense to project someone against the best receiver the conference has ever produced, instead of against the best players from the conference who’ve not made the step up.

What does that mean for his fantasy value? I still have him as the highest receiver on my board. I think his bust potential is huge, and I’d put it way ahead of his chance of succeeding. But if he can translate his production to the next level he should prove a very good fantasy receiver, and that’s what’s enticing. There’s some interesting prospects in a fairly meh year overall at the position, but nobody else has the ceiling of Davis, who is one of the most productive college receivers ever to come to the NFL, and while I have concerns about his lack of exposure to the top defences and defensive backs, it never hurt Jerry Rice who played in Div I-AA for MVSU and still managed a reasonably good career. It does however mean that he’s spent most of his career playing against none power-5 teams, and while he does have a couple of good games back in 2013 against Big 10 teams, he’s mostly disappointed in those matchups, never more so than in the 2015 defeat against Ohio State when he was held to 42 yards on 6 catches against probably the best defence he faced in four years.

Against Ball State you see exactly the sort of problems I’m referring to, he’s given the sort of free release he just won’t get in the NFL, with about as un-pressed as coverage gets. He shows off his ability to go up and make throws over the corner, but also his issue with focus drops, and too often for me he doesn’t come away with the ball in contact on the kind of plays he’ll need to make to succeed in the NFL – whether that’s because of route running/body position issues or his ability to control the ball in contact I’m not sure. I don’t see a ton of electric speed either, he runs past whatever back is covering him consistently (I suspect because they’re not following his route well), but isn’t running away from guys after the catch, and I wonder if his non-involvement in the combine was to try to hide that speed and help his draft stock. He flashes some good moves though and the ability to make guys miss (although again, the quality of the opposition defensive backs is a concern there), and you can see the raw tools that would have intrigued NFL scouts, and despite my concerns about his catching under pressure he does have the hands to make circus catches when not under pressure. Ultimately I worry about his landing spot too – he’s not a classic number one receiver, top cornerbacks will be able to shut him out – especially at first and I’d have preferred to see him land as a number two option in a highly productive offence where he’ll not be lined up against the opposition’s best consistently or trapped in double-coverage. Time will tell but for me, despite the potential reward, I just couldn’t justify the price of a top three pick that would be needed to secure a player who just doesn’t seem to me to be an elite receiver in the making.

Mike Williams (Clemson) Just as Davis was a fairly clear number one at receiver, Williams is the obvious number two, and that’s before factoring in the landing spot in a pass-friendly Chargers team who won’t ask him to stretch the field. Williams is nowhere near as productive as Davis, but the ACC is not the MAC, and Clemson have other weapons around which the offence can function. What I like most though is that it’s often been in the biggest games, against the best opposition, that Williams has shone – 202 yards in defeat against Pitt this year, 174 yards against Auburn, 146 against NC State, 190 yards and a TD in the two playoff games this year. There’s a tendency for Clemson to not use him much against the likes of Boston College, Troy and South Carolina State (only 7 catches in these three games in 2016) so he’s not put up the volume that Davis did, but he’s consistently productive against the best teams in the toughest match ups and that bodes well for the transition to the NFL.

Clemson have produced more than a few NFL players in recent years, and while I would point to the Henne/Brady thing above when cautioning about drawing comparisons, Clemson’s been successful to some degree with Sammy Watkins, Martavis Bryant and DeAndre Hopkins as headline conversions to the NFL (Adam Humphries in Tampa Bay is coming along as well). That might seem like a mixed bag, but I think it’s fair to say Clemson can’t be held responsible for Watkins ending up in Buffalo and being hurt a lot, nor Bryant’s need to relax before a drugs test with a spliff and when available both have shown promising signs they could become really good weapons and fantasy options. Not to mention that most colleges can’t produce a single good receiver, let alone three potentially good ones.

Williams didn’t run in the combine, and there’s a definite question mark over his speed, but that doesn’t matter in the sort of short-passing offence the Chargers run, especially as they have a very good deep speed threat already. Watch that Pitt video and you see how he elevates above corners, getting good outside position and using his height and leap to go up and win the ball. That combination of being able to win vertically, and having the toughness to work the middle of the field, should see him be productive from fairly early especially in a high-volume offence such as the Chargers, though his speed and route-running will probably hold him back from being a star. I’m not sure he’s worth of the sort of pick he’ll demand, but while Davis is the sort of luxury pick a competitive team might risk a flier on in the hope it pays off, Williams is exactly the sort of steady reliable WR2 with upside type you want to pad your roster with when rebuilding or in cap trouble.

John Ross (Washington) I’m not going to bother talking about anything other than 2016 for John Ross as there wasn’t really anything other than 2016 to catch anyone’s interest. With 1150 yards and 17 TDs, and another 1 added in the rushing game, Ross’s production was good, but it’s his speed and ability to create scores out of very little that really stood out, and he turned heads by becoming the fastest prospect ever timed at the combine. However, and it’s a big however, Washington’s schedule was a joke. They faced a ranked Stanford early-ish, but that was before Stanford had really cratered with their lack of a QB catching up to them and so that win looked better at the time than it does now, looking back. Similarly, their loss to unranked USC looks a little worse than it really was as it’s become clear there’s a very good team in USC who just took way too long to sort themselves out to be relevant in 2016. Anyway, thanks to a very soft schedule they ended up (undeservedly) in the playoffs where they got absolutely bossed by Alabama – nobody more so than Ross, who came up small in the biggest moment. That wasn’t the case all year, he had a big day in the loss to USC, and was solid in the win over Stanford, but the PAC-12 teams are not exactly known for their sterling defences and it ultimately may be a reflection of that, rather than a big game mentality. I want to get excited about Ross’ upside, but I just don’t see it – he’s not big enough to win vertically, and he’ll basically be a better version of Fuller – he’ll run fast in a straight line and get behind defences, and when he does he’ll not drop it like Fuller does – which would be great in a landing spot where he didn’t have AJ Green, Jeremy Hill and Tyler Eifert ahead of him. He’s not a red zone weapon either, particularly in Cincy, and I think that hurts him a lot. In the right spot, I could have seen him have some fantasy relevance, and maybe he will have, but I think he’s at best a Desean Jackson type lottery ticket – scoring 18 points one week and 1.8 the next – who’ll drive his owner mad. Ross will almost certainly demand a first round pick, but absolutely doesn’t look worth it.

Zay Jones (Eastern Carolina) Let’s start with the basic, Jones is quick – only 5 100ths slower than Josh Malone in a fairly crowded bunch of receivers behind John Ross and Curtis Samuel at the top of the 40 leaderboard. He was also productive – over 1,000 yards in 2015 and over 1700 in 2016. Playing in the American, all the caveats about quality opposition apply to Jones as much as to Davis or Ross, with an added one about playing for a bad team in the American Conference. But the consistency of his production was notable, with only three games below 100 yards in 2016 and only two with fewer than 10 receptions. Unfortunately they also came against three of the better teams ECSU faced – Cincinatti, NC State and Temple. He had a good day personally against a pretty good Navy team, but there’s nothing you can point to that’s exceptional like Ross’ speed or Davis’ vertical play, he just consistently churns out positive plays, with minimal drops and with no real competition in Buffalo his speed to go deep and steady production could produce a decent fantasy option, if not a spectacular one. And if nothing else, you’re getting an athlete who while not standing out in any given discipline did well in most of them at the combine. However, he’s a hilariously bad blocker and seriously lacking strength on his skinny frame. That could be a problem. Think of someone like Emmanuel Sanders, who’ll probably be pretty good for the Patriots, when Buffalo refuse to extend his contract in a few years. I have Jones pretty high considering his limitations, but his athleticism is interesting and ultimately it’s because I don’t really like any of the receivers and it’s possible that in a fairly mediocre year he ends up being the best of the lot simply because he’ll be a reliable performer who could develop into a very good one, and he’s proved adept at a Landry type role where he catches the ball behind the line and turns it into a solid gain.

In order to keep this on the short side, I am not going to go as deep as some other positions, but I’ll deal with two others…

Curtis Samuel (Ohio State) Don’t sleep on Samuel, he’s behind only Ross as the fastest man in this year’s draft and he has the shifty footwork Ross perhaps lacks that will enable him to freeze corners and buy him space to release and he’s likely going to be used by Carolina to replace Ted Ginn Jr. That suits him (although being in Carolina alongside McCaffrey doesn’t help) and if I’m right about the Ted Ginn role then he’s likely to be the main deep speed threat (Benjamin, Olsen and Funchess provide literally no competition for this role either), as well as returning punts and kicks, and seeing the field on plays like jet sweeps or trick plays. I like him, and his relatively niche spot on the Panthers could see him put up impressive fantasy numbers from early on. Or, much like Ted Ginn, he could be an occasionally impressive but rarely relevant fantasy option. Worth the second round pick he’s likely to command, simply because Ginn’s 2015 numbers show there’s potential for a WR to deliver in this system in that role.

JuJu Smith-Schuster (USC) probably would have found himself alongside Davis and Williams at the top of this class based on his 2015 production. USC’s early struggles before settling on Freshman (and presumptive 2018 #1) Sam Darnold at QB. The first three games with Darnold starting were easily the best chunk of JJSS’s season, with 368 yards and 6 TDs over three games. Unfortunately it didn’t continue, and while his early struggles could perhaps be excused USC’s tough start and their struggle to find a QB, the five game run to end the regular season where he managed only 216 yards and 1 TD could not. He finished with a great day against Penn State in the Rose Bowl, but overall he only showed glimpses of the electric form he showed in early 2015 to get himself to the top of the 2017 draft class. He doesn’t have elite speed, and generally disappointed at the combine in each of the categories, but what he does have is good physicality, and a willingness to go and make the tough catches under pressure. He’s drawn comparisons with Anquan Boldin, and that’s not unfair but it does mark him out as a middling fantasy option at best. He’ll probably be over-drafted because there’s a tendency to over-rate Pittsburgh receivers fantasy viability, but without a standout TE, it’s possible JJSS could end up being a solid red zone option because of his ability to compete and make plays. If he’s still there in the mid- to late- second then he’ll be a solid pick, anything higher than about 11 though would be a reach.

A Beginner’s Guide to College Fitba

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Me again,

I thought I’d do a quick college football preview for anyone who’s interested in learning a bit more about the guys who might be near the top of the Dynabowl draft in the coming year or two. So for a handful of players I’ll look at what they might do, and then to summarise at the bottom I’ll note some of the games I’ve highlighted, and some others I maybe haven’t mentioned but that will be well worth a watch.

Sam Darnold (QB, USC #4, PAC-12) is the presumptive number one overall pick in the 2018 draft. Evaluating QBs is about more than pure college performance, which is why Darnold is ahead of say Baker Mayfield, who for me is the best QB, possibly best player, in college football. USC certainly aren’t shy throwing the ball, like any PAC-12 team they love to air it out, but not on the scale that some of the big 12 this year will. Darnold is pretty bloody good too though. For me he throws a few too many interceptions, and that should be something anyone scouting him pays attention to this year. What he does do though is win. USC’s season was already in the tank last year (1-3 start, with a heavy losses to Stanford and Bama) before he took over the starting job, but after he did the upturn was immediate and significant, most notable was the dismantling of Washington (who went to the CFP) late in the regular season, and the for-the-ages Rose Bowl shootout victory over a very good Penn State team (well offence) that saw 1-3 turned into a respectable 10-3 season. Assuming Darnold does make the jump, he could well be a 180+ rated passer, with around 5 ints and 50 TDS on his way to over 4k yards. That might well nab him a Heismann of his own on his way to the #1 pick. Of course, he could also be the guy who struggles to follow up his first year, and stays steady or regresses a little as teams / defensive backs see a chance to make a name for themselves against such a stellar prospect, and the loss of JuJu Schuster Smith to the Steelers in the NFL Draft won’t help. Either way it’ll be fun, and there’s a good chance USC is in the conversation in the PAC-12 until late in the year. However, it’s equally possible that they’re basically out of the CFP picture by week three with huge games in week 2 and week 3 against Stanford and Texas respectively and nowhere near enough real, quality teams (unless ND come out firing and bump up their ranking) on their schedule to help mitigate those losses, even if it ends up being enough to win the PAC-12. Catch them early in those big games, the game with Stanford (W2) and the match up against Tom Herman’s Texas (W3) are definitely the big highlights, and that Stanford game could be a prelude to a much more significant rematch for the PAC-12 conference title and a playoff spot.

Baker Mayfield (QB, Oklahoma University #7, Big 12) is basically the player Darnold wants to be this year. Last year he posted a stellar 196 PER, breaking Russell Wilson’s (he turned out pretty OK) single-season mark at Wisconsin for the best ever season by a passer, completing 71% (top 30 all time) of his passes for 11.1 yards per attempt, itself the 2nd best mark in history (behind Michael Vick). That’s the sort of number you look at as good per completion. He also racked up 40 TDs and 8 ints (less than Darnold in more games). Basically, he was pretty fucking good. And he’s not the presumptive #1, which I can only assume is mostly because teams look down on spread offence QBs (there’s a good article on the Ringer about just this). Anyway, the Big 12 is a fun conference, maybe not as high quality as the big three (Big 10 East, SEC West and ACC Atlantic Division), but with Oklahoma, Texas, OSU, WVU and Kansas state all in the pre-season top 25 it’s definitely in the mix, and has been unfairly shut out of the CFP in two out of three seasons (particularly last year). It’s virtually impossible to pick between OSU and OU (#10) to win it this year, which means that Bedlam (Week 10 – their 9th game) will be huge and it’s really a can’t miss rivalry game any year, but especially this year. In a bid to make sure their teams got more of a shot at the CFP the Big 12 mandated their teams to really stack their schedules, which means in week two (on top of Stanford-USC), it’s well worth tuning in to watch Mayfield take on one of the best defences (Ohio #2) in the entire NCAA, on the road in front of 100k+ fans, which means it’ll be a real test of his mettle.

I could go on talking about QBs, there’s tons of exciting guys around. Whether it’s Josh Jackson (Virginia Tech #21, ACC Coastal) who could be one to watch for the future (redshirt freshman) taking over the QB spot for the Hokies, who just looks a really exciting athlete and a potential star. Deondre Francois (FSU #3, ACC Atlantic) who’s a fairly common pick to take a big leap forward this year in a loaded FSU team who many think will be back in the CFP again. And who could forget reigning Heismann champion Lamar Jackson (Louisville #16, ACC Atlantic) who should be even better in his second year as a starter, quite a claim for a guy who had over 5,000 total yards and 50 total touchdowns. And that’s just in the ACC. But QBs aren’t the guys who’re going to hit the top of the Dynabowl draft board. So how about some running backs?

Saquon Barkley (RB, Penn State #6, Big 10) inherits the title of best running back in college football, after carrying Penn State to a surprise title in the Big 10, ahead of Jim Harbaugh’s Michigan and Ohio State, who ended up going to the CFP ahead of them, somewhat controversially despite Penn beating them. I don’t have Barkley on a par with McCaffrey and Fournette who were the previous competitors for the title, but he’s still a high quality player, playing in a really tough division for runners. With the Big 10 still loaded with top ten teams – Ohio, Wisconsin (Big 10 West, rather than East), Penn – and Michigan sitting 11th, there’s plenty of big games for Barkley to flash his low centre of gravity and explosive speed in, and he combines being an effective runner with good pass catching skills. With Trace McSorley also returning at QB, Penn should be in good nick to take the Big 10 title to the wire, though they start 2nd favourites behind Ohio State, who are just loaded with so much future NFL talent. Penn have back-to-back match ups with Michigan and @Ohio State in weeks 8 and 9 coming off their bye, and these are the best games to catch for this team as the Big 10 teams don’t currently tend to load up their schedules with tough non-conference games the way the other conferences have been doing.

Derrius Guice (RB, LSU #13, SEC) has big shoes to fill with Leonard Fournette now a Jaguar and looks more than capable of doing so. At his best Fournette was a beast, but he never showed that side enough because of injuries and his foot issues, and it’s not beyond the realms of possibility that we talk about Guice more glowingly than we do of Fournette. He’s that good. Guice clocked up over 750 yards in the last four games of last year, and with Les Miles finally moved on, it feels like LSU would be a trendy CFP pick in any other division than Alabama’s. As is ever the way the SEC has a string of teams in both the East and West divisions in the top 25, and they’re often televised games here in the 9pm Slot on BT ESPN so there’s a good chance LSU will feature more than once this season. The key matches to watch out for are the obvious ones – Auburn (week 7) and Alabama (week 10). LSU are one of the few teams in football who can match up to Alabama physically, and despite being low-scoring, last year’s game was fascinating. If Guice can produce against a much-weaked Bama front 7 (a remarkable 7 players from the Bama defence went in the NFL draft last year, but I doubt they’ll be anything less than great again), he could find himself catapulting to the top of many fantasy mock drafts.

Myles Gaskin (RB, Washington #8, PAC-12) has back-to-back 1300 yard seasons. He’s primarily a ground threat, with minimal additional yardage in the catching game, but he’s averaged a solid 5.7 and 5.8 yards in his two seasons for the Huskies with 24 total touchdowns without racking up significant mileage (no 300+ carry seasons). Chris Peterson’s team were perhaps a little over-rated last season, and a bit lucky to get the 4th CFP spot, but if they can win their half of the PAC-12 (the tougher half, with Washington State – who they play in rivalry week, week 13 – and Stanford – matched up in week 11), the championship game (assumed to be against USC) could well be a play-in game for them. They’re not the sexy pick that Stanford and USC are, but with Gaskin and Lavon Coleman in the backfield, Luke Falk returning at QB and a string of key contributors on defence (headlined by Vita Vea) all returning, they’re likely to be there or thereabouts, particularly as the loss of John Ross is perhaps not as significant as some may think with Pettis ready to step up and prove himself a number one receiver.

Justice Hill (RB, Oklahoma State #10, Big 12) is one of a string of stars in the OSU offence (Mason Rudolph at QB and James Washington at WR – more on him shortly), that make the Big 12 race so exciting. He was Big 12 freshman of the year last year, compiling over 1100 rushing yards as a rookie at 5.5 yards per carry but only a measly 6 TDs. He should improve in year two. The week 8 OSU match-up against Texas and the don’t-miss Week 10 Bedlam match up against the Sooners are the best games to see him, and Washington, in action.

There’s tons of others around, Bo Scarborough (Alabama #1, SEC) should see plenty of action for Alabama this year and is likely to go to the NFL and feature in the first round of the Dynabowl draft. The Big 10 is loaded with running backs, but Justin Jackson (Northwestern unranked, Big 10) actually lead the conference in yardage last year ahead of Saquon Barkley, and is back to carry the load again. Pitt’s back Qadree Ollison (Pitt unranked, ACC) (not to be confused with team-mate Quadree Henderson) lost the job to James Conner (now a Steeler) last year, but was a 1000y rusher in his rookie year, and while the ACC’s leading rushers have mostly moved on, Jacques Patrick (FSU #3, ACC) is a five star recruit who was an absolute monster in high school and steps into the Dalvin Cook shaped-hole in the FSU offence hoping to follow in Cook’s and Devontae Freeman’s footsteps as another NFL-bound FSU player.

Before I go into wide receivers, I’ll mention a couple of defensive players to keep an eye on. Derwin James (DB, FSU #3, ACC) is probably the best defensive back in college and may well have gone to the NFL draft if he’d not got injured and missed the whole season last year. He’s a stud, and the path from FSU to the NFL is a well-trodden one, particularly for defensive backs, who’ve gone high in the first round regularly. Vita Vea (DL, Washington #8, PAC-12) could easily have gone to the draft last year, but returns for Washington. And there’s those who suggest his name could be the first called amongst defensive players when he does go to the draft in 2018. Ohio is absolutely stacked on defense, but Tyquan Lewis (DL, Ohio State #2, Big 10) is probably the standout member, and he’ll be looking to build on last season’s 8.5 sacks, while Nick Bosa on the other side of the line from him will be hoping to follow in his brother Joey’s footsteps from Ohio State standout to the NFL. Lastly, it wouldn’t be defence without mentioning an Alabama player, so let’s go with Minkah Fitzpatrick (DB, Alabama #1, SEC), along with Derwin James one of the top two defensive backs in the college game. I haven’t really mentioned linebackers either here, and they’re pretty solid defensive players who can contribute early and often to your Dynabowl team, so pay attention to Arden Key (LB, LSU #13, SEC), who leads the SEC’s returning players from last year in sacks. Also worth keeping an eye on is the Big 10’s Tegray Scales (LB, Indiana unranked, Big 10) who had 23.5 tackles for a loss last year from linebacker.

James Washington (WR, Oklahoma State #10, Big 12) is the leading candidate to win the 2017 Biletnikoff Award for best college receiver. He’s going to be a star in the NFL. Averaging over 100 yards a game last year, with 10 TDs in the mix, he should only be better in his senior year (he opened up his account with 145y and 2 TDs in OSU’s early week one game). He’s a consistent deep threat, averaging virtually 20ypc over the last couple of seasons, but without compromising on his volume. I’ve already covered OSU’s best games, but I’ll mention Bedlam again, because why the fuck not, it’s one of the best events in the college football season.

Calvin Ridley (WR, Alabama #1, SEC) is the main receiving threat on the best team in college football. He’s not put up stellar numbers so far, but that’s more to do with the depth of talent Alabama can call on, and the fact that (despite winning the Freshman of the Year award in the SEC) Jalen Hurts is not that great a passer of the ball yet. Alabama know their stuff on receivers though, with Julio Jones and Amari Cooper both going on to be successes in the NFL, despite neither being exactly high volume guys at Bama. I’m not for a second putting Ridley in a bracket with those two, but he is a really good receiver and could be in line for a breakout third year, much like Cooper. Bama’s schedule is typically loaded, simply from being in the SEC, but there’s no doubt the highlight is the week one (yes, today – hopefully this went out in time) match up with FSU that sees the 1st and 3rd ranked teams from pre-season face off in a potential early playoff sneak peek. On top of that the matches with LSU (previously mentioned) and Auburn (Week 13, rivalry week) are always tough games. I never want to over-sell Alabama matches though, they’re a really good team, but at times it’s like watching New England v Cleveland, you can admire it, but it’s not exciting simply because it’s not competitive. That’s not their fault, but ultimately it doesn’t make any difference for the neutral. Hurts is fun though, and with Scarborough, Ridley and the raft of new talent they’ll doubtless roll out, they’ll be one of the best, if not the best team in college football, and you’ll see plenty of future NFL players on show.

Christian Kirk (WR, Texas A&M unranked, SEC) is a dynamic receiver / returner. He had over 1000 yards receiving as a rookie, and came up just short of repeating that in his second year. He could be set for a year three breakout, but I’m not inclined to think so on an Aggies team that looks like being their worst for a while and one which will probably see it’s coach canned before the end of the season. It doesn’t matter though, as Kirk is still an exciting talent, and should find his way to the NFL draft just for his speed and ability to make things happen. They’ll face Alabama, LSU and Auburn this year as they’re in the SEC West, where the big boys play. That’s your best chance of seeing them, though I’d add that some of the other SEC games involving particularly Arkansas and recently Ole Miss (though probably not in 2017) are often fun, even if they’re not currently in a position to compete with the heavyweights of the division.

Deon Cain (WR, Clemson #5, ACC) isn’t getting much love. It’s a bit unfair on the defending National Champions, but prevailing opinion is that Clemson won’t be as good with Mike Williams and Deshaun Watson off to the NFL. Here’s the thing though, the same was true previously – Clemson’s lost quite a lot of talent to the NFL (and quite high) with guys like Vic Beasley, Sammy Watkins and Shaq Lawson all being high picks who were supposed to make the defence / offence take a step back. Dabo Sweeney is arguably as good as any coach in the NCAA though (Nick Saban, Urban Meyer, Dabo Sweeney and Jimbo Fisher – but it always feels to me like Dabo has to do more with less, and doesn’t have the advantages the others enjoy when it comes to recruiting players), and where they’ll probably take a step back on offence, the defence looks primed to take a step forward. One player who should help on offence is Cain who scored 9 TDs and put up over 750 yards on only 38 catches last year, as a deep threat with great downfield speed. With an increased workload, he could be poised to make a big leap this year, and things may not be as bad at QB as they seem. Kelly Bryant is the likely starter, having served as backup the last two years to Watson, but Hunter Johnson is a five-star recruit and true freshman, who’s waiting in the wings and seems to be moving into the number two slot on the depth chart already. We’ll likely see two, it not all three of Clemson’s QBs in the first week against Kent State, but in week two against Auburn we should see who gets the nod, at least for now. Playing in the ACC Atlantic division means Clemson will be one of the best week-to-week watches, with the big games against Louisville (Week 3) and FSU (Week 11) being the highlights, while the Week 2 game against #12 Auburn is also well worth a watch, along with the game against Virginia Tech #21 (Week 5).

Anyway, there’s some guys to keep an eye on and no doubt others will emerge over the season as they breakout, or their teams do. In terms of some early projections of games to watch out for, the following all are worth taking a look at…

 

Week One: Alabama #1 v FSU #3 is not just game of the week, but a contender for best match up of the year, right up front. Michigan # 11 v Florida #17 is a decent curtain raiser too, and it’ll be interesting to see how the Wolverines have rebuilt after losing a lot of players to the NFL last spring.

Week Two For me, it’s Oklahoma #7 @ Ohio State #2 that has the most appeal, just because I love watching Baker Mayfield, week two is absolutely packed though, and the Stanford #14 @ USC #4 and Auburn #12 @ Clemson #5 games are both really tasty looking top 25 match ups. I’ll also be following Georgia #15 @ Notre Dame to see if ND are actually any good (they went 4-8 last year, but a lot of those were against really good teams, and they rarely got blown out, so they’re reasonably good bounce back candidates) while Miami #18 @ Arkansas is a good early test for Miami, especially on defence, ahead of their huge week 3 game against FSU.

Week Three Well, I’ve already mention Miami #18 @ FSU #3, which could be a preview of a potential ACC championship game. Or a defining early season game for a pair of 1-1 teams. Texas #23 @ USC #4 is a really exciting early look at Tom Herman’s Texas. He’s unbeaten at both Ohio State as OC and at Houston as HC in games where his team were the underdogs, and his Houston team were one of the best stories of 2015 and talked about as a potential CFP team from outside the Power 5 early in 2016. This has the makings of a back and forth shootout, with Darnold on one side and Herman coaching on the other. You could make the case however that the best game of the weekend is Clemson #5 @ Louisville #16. This was a great game last year between two of the ACC’s heavyweights, and reigning Heismann winner against National Champion is never going to be a bad way to bill a game.

Week Four is a good time to catch your breath, there’s no all top 25 match ups. There’s intriguing games, but nothing must see. Away from the bright lights of the Power Five conferences, the Thursday night match up between Temple and South Florida looks good, and could be decisive in deciding which one of the group of six teams is heading for a New Year’s Day Bowl game. Aside from those… UCLA @ Stanford #14, Oklahoma #7 @ Baylor and TCU @ OSU #10 could be good games.

Week Five sees Clemson #5 @ Virginia Tech #21 a game which could be very important for Clemson if it already has a loss on it’s record by this point. No two loss team has been to the CFP yet. USC #4 @ Washington State #24 is also interesting as this is two very offensive teams who haven’t shown much interest in defence, and is another shootout for Darnold to navigate through on his path to being the #1 overall pick, while Georgia #15 @ Tennessee #25 is a big game in deciding who will win the SEC East and go to the conference championship to lose to Bama.

Week Six features Alabama #1 @ Texas A&M which hasn’t been an easy game in recent seasons for the Crimson Tide. It also features Michigan #11 @ Michigan State which is about as friendly as you’d imagine it to be, the Spartans are pretty shit though, so I wouldn’t expect too much from this game. Stanford #14 @ Utah is a tricky fixture, Utah are on the fringes of the top 25 and this is no gimme, on the road, for the Cardinal. LSU #13 @ Florida #17 is the early standout, but I’m not sure it’ll be quite so appetising by the time the game rolls around, as defeat to Michigan would likely see Florida out of the top 25 quite quickly.

Week Seven has a couple of big games, with Alabama #1 @ Arkansas an interesting-ish test for Alabama’s rebuilt defence against a team who’ve given them a couple of minor scares in recent seasons. That however is merely an appetiser for the two meaty main courses – the smashmouth Auburn #12 @ LSU #13 which will likely determine Alabama’s major competitor, and the Red River Showdown – Oklahoma #7 @ Texas #23 – A Big 12 shootout between Herman’s new Texas offence and Baker Mayfield.

Week Eight ramps things up with four top 25 (pre-season) match ups, plus a couple of other interesting games. Michigan #11 @ Penn State #6 is probably going to be the most important in terms of the final standings in the Big 10 East and the playoff picture, but (for me anyway) Louisville #16 @ FSU #3 is the tastiest. FSU got a total spanking last year with Lamar Jackson scoring approximately 50 of his 51 total touchdowns in this game, so this will be real grudge match. Oklahoma State #10 @ Texas #23 will be fun, unless you’re a fan of good defence, while this week also features Tennessee #25 @ Alabama #1. I’m also throwing some love to USC #4 @ Notre Dame as another good game for Darnold to show off his stuff.

Week Nine is highlighted by another Big 10 showdown, between last year’s best two teams Penn State #6 @ Ohio State #2. There’s also an SEC top 25 match up between Georgia #15 @ Florida #17, and a Big 12 showdown between OSU #10 @ WVU #22. But this week is all about the big Big 10 match up.

Week Ten is Bedlam. I might have mentioned it… Oklahoma #7 @ Oklahoma State (OSU) #10. It’s big and meaty, and speaking of big and meaty, it doesn’t get much bigger or meatier than the battle for the line of scrimmage in LSU #13 @ Alabama #1. There’s other games of note this weekend, but these two are a class apart.

Week Eleven and there’s no let up. Two huge games that will could well be conference deciders (assuming, not unfairly, that championship games will be mostly formalities), headlined by FSU #3 @ Clemson #5 but closely followed Washington #8 @ Stanford #14. I love both these games for pitching nominal favourites on the road against huge rivals. These games will dominate, much like the pair the week before, but don’t sleep on Georgia #15 @ Auburn #12 as it’s these sorts of games that can kill a season if you lose them, and it comes at a point when college teams do start to tire and lose awkward games.

Week Twelve is unsurprisingly a bit quieter, coming as it does off the back of two huge weeks, and before the big rivalry games in week 13. There’s still a couple of tasty matchups though, and none tastier than the Big 10’s East v West battle Michigan #11 @ Wisconsin #9. Kansas State #20 @ Oklahoma State #10 and LSU #13 @ Tennessee #25 could have conference championship and bowl ramifications, but probably not playoff ones.

Week Thirteen is the big one. Rivalry week. Every single game matters, even if you’re looking at a pair of 2-X teams, pride matters. The best three though, and the most important, are likely to be Alabama #1 @ Auburn #12, FSU #3 @ Florida #17 and the big one, that produced an instant classic in triple OT last year Ohio State #2 @ Michigan #11. Harbaugh hasn’t won one of these yet, and it’s basically impossible to come any closer than they did last year. I think Michigan fans are still arguing about the spot of the ball in the drive in overtime. This has all the makings of another great matchup between the two powerhouses in the Big 10 East.

A Trade Retrospective

Rookie Draft Trading No Comments

With another draft in the books, I thought it’d be interesting to take a retrospective look at some of the more complicated trades over recent seasons, and the domino effect of those trades, so I’ve picked out six that I think are more complicated and wide reaching, or involved big names in trades to see what sort of return they netted in the end. I’ve avoided some of the bigger seeming trades where minimal picks were involved (the TY Hilton trade for example) as they essentially come down to player valuation at the time, and focused on pick heavy trades – particularly where they involved further trading down the line. I’ve ranked them very unscientifically in order of blockbusteriness and interestingness.

Six

  • DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 3.02 & 5.02 and 2017 Round 5 Pick
  • Dynasty of Sadness – 2016 2.02

Two teams that will turn up pretty often in these trades in are the Sadness and the Firebirds, but I like this trade because while there’s a lot of multi-pick trades where team A moves up a few places in a high round at the cost of moving down more places in a later round this is a much simpler decision to pay to move up. So what does the trade value chart make of this? 2.02 is worth 1200 points while 3.02 (780) and 5.02 (480) combine to more points without the additional 5th rounder in 2017 (based on 6.05 this is worth 350). In total the Firebirds paid 1610 points, the equivalent of 1.06 in order to get this pick. Or should I say, get this pick back. Since he’d previously traded it to the Sadness in exchange for Markus Wheaton about a month before. So… Firebirds ended up giving up three picks, of decent value, in order to get back a pick he spent on Markus Wheaton (who’s scored a whopping 13.1 points for him since the trade), which seemed a reach for a guy who was only around the 40th best receiver the season before (although he did finish the previous season hot).

So what did the Firebirds end up with, aside from Wheaton, for this treasure trove – CJ Prosise. A handcuff to the Thomas Rawls, acquired in an earlier trade (1.09 spent on Devontae Booker and 2.05 which was traded on again and eventually spent on Kenyan Drake, and neither of which Neil originally started with, as I’ll cover later). Prosise looked reasonably good in limited action before his injury, and getting the handcuff to Rawls seems smart in retrospect given how much he’s struggled with injuries when he’s played and how unconvinced by him Seattle seemed to be last year. Sadly that might not be enough with Lacy now in town, the expensively acquired Prosise and Rawls could both be out of the picture, unless they get smart, team up and open a burger joint near CitiLink Field.

That’s just looking at the Firebirds side of the trade though, what happened to the picks the Sadness acquired. 3.02 was spent on Mike Thomas, sadly not the one in New Orleans. LA Rams receiver Mike Thomas has been considerably worse, with a total of only 6.2 points as a rookie. He may yet turn into a good receiver, but the Rams passing offence doesn’t seem any better than last year’s putrid edition, the Rams invested in more weapons for Goff that might see Thomas fall down the depth chart all together and right now he’s probably a candidate for the chop, only one year in. And speaking of the putrid Rams offence, 5.02 was spent on the source of the terrible smell – Jared Goff. I think we all know how that’s turned out so far. As for the 2017 5th rounder (5.04) – it’s turned into Ishmael Zamora, the dog-beater. There’s really no way to know how that pick turns out at this point, but unless the plan is to dress Thomas and Goff as dogs then I’m not sure Zamora will really end up being the important part of rescuing this trade for the Sadness.

I don’t think we can pick winners or losers on a lot of these, but if we were, I’d probably shade this one to Neil right now. It also highlights an interesting point – trading down and getting good value for a premium pick is a solid strategy, but you have to spend the picks wisely when you do, not on the Rams passing offence.

Five

  • Tamworth Two – Snead, Willie NOS WR, 2016 Round 1 Pick and 2017 Round 2 Pick
  • DynaForOne Firebirds – Thomas, Demaryius DEN WR

So here’s a different sort of trade to the first – a player swap, with picks to make up the difference. This pick took place in season, so the final value of both picks wasn’t known at the point of trade, but one was for the current season and it was done at the deadline with T2 in the thick of the playoff battle, so I’d call it the 1.08 pick on average, rather than the usual 1.05 average that I’d use for a future pick, but the total value of the picks still comes to close to the 3rd overall pick. That’s a lot of value, but Thomas was a stud receiver at the time, number three overall in 2014 but struggling a little in 2015 – mostly because of Peyton Manning falling off a cliff and being unable to complete a pass over 10 yards. Those sorts of talents are generally going for double firsts, which suggests Snead – not unreasonably as he’d end up putting up nearly 1,000 yards as a rookie over only 9 games, a record for an undrafted player’s rookie season – was either valued at a first himself, or maybe that the Firebirds gave Thomas up slightly cheap.

In actual fact though this is a really savvy deal, Thomas’ struggles continued in 2016 and it’s hard to remember a receiver coming back from the sort of extended dip he’s struggled through and T2 have been left with a top six salary for a player who couldn’t crack the top 20 in 2016. Between the IRL big contract and the continued problems at QB for Denver it’s not unreasonable to suggest the struggles aren’t going away. As for Snead, he followed up his 984 yards and 3 TDs with 895 yards and 4 TDs, but over 16 games. That’s probably because of the emergence of Michael Thomas in the second half of the year and the presence of Cooks, with Cooks gone Snead could break out in a bigger role in 2017. And if nothing else, he’s been so much cheaper than Thomas for similar production, and is younger, so without the picks I’d be tempted to call Neil a winner here – despite Thomas having a proven ceiling considerably higher. However, put that aside, because the pick value removes any doubt. Even with the worst picks in the world Neil’s value on this trade is off the chart. Which is probably good as Neil spent the first rounder he received as part of the Rawls trade (along with 2.05 which ended up traded around until it became Kenyan Drake – told you it would come up again), which has worked out OK, but hasn’t produced the top ten stud RB he would have hoped given the price. The 2.05 pick that the 2017 pick also ended up traded, to the Sadness along with 2.04 (and was spent on James Conner), to get the 9th overall pick which was spent on Alvin Kamara. Given that the pick traded for Rawls ended up the same pick that then subsequently got traded in 2017 the best way to look at this is probably that it’s Thomas for Snead and Rawls. Even with Rawls disappointing 2016 and unconvincing position for 2017, I’d call Neil a clear winner on this one simply because I’m not convinced Thomas has a path back to being an elite receiver right now. A pattern is emerging, don’t fuck with Neil when it comes to trades.

Four

  • Dynasty of Sadness – Tate, Golden DET WR and 2016 Picks 3.01 & 5.01
  • Champions of the Sun – 2016 Picks 1.06 & 3.10

It wouldn’t be a trade review if these two didn’t show up in it somewhere trading picks. While a lot of their trades are the sort of up in one round down in another sort of trades I mentioned in the first trade I highlighted, this one is a little more straight-forward. This is a chunk of stuff given up by one team to get a high pick off the other. I picked this one here as it involves a player as a makeweight to trade up, unlike number six which was purely about picks or number five which was mostly about trading for a star.

Let’s start with the pick valuation and see what it values Tate as in terms of a pick. Champions are giving up 2220 points of value, while Sadness give up 1290, a difference of 930 which equates to somewhere roughly in the middle of 2.07 and 2.08. Given the valuations we’ve seen of Thomas, Snead and Landry, this is probably on the low side for Tate, who was coming off something of a breakout first year in Detroit and looking at a potentially bigger role with Megatron retiring. Even with him not being as young as any of those mentioned, it’s still less than was paid for Wheaton who was considerably less productive and with far greater downside. Initially then this looks like being advantage Champions.

Fortunately for the Sadness, they played a blinder with the big pick, nabbing Michael Thomas at 1.06 – a top receiver in his rookie season, and a big part (along with Elliot) of why the Sadness made a playoff run. With Cooks gone, he has an opportunity to take on an even bigger role in the next couple of seasons. The 3.10 pick was spent on Jordan Payton who’s delivered the square root of fuck all so far in Cleveland, but there’s time for that to change. Similarly the two picks given up by Sadness have gone on QB development prospect Paxton Lynch who’s shown little to nothing so far (though was not expected to deliver anything in 2016), and Washington RB non-event Keith Marshall as the Champions correctly didn’t trust Matt Jones, but wrongly pegged Marshall rather than Fat Rob Kelley as the solution.

Right now this trade essentially boils down to Tate for Thomas, and that’s a clear win for the Dynasty of Sadness.

Three

  • Dynasty of Sadness – Bryant, Dez DAL WR and 2017 Round 5 Pick
  • Dyna Hard – Morris, Alfred DAL RB and Diggs, Stefon MIN WR and 2016 Pick 1.08 and 2017 Round 1 Pick

OK, so as a one-off trade goes, this is probably the blockbusteriest trade so far in the Dynabowl, two firsts, Stefon Diggs and Alfred Morris for Dez Bryant and a make-weight future 5th. It’s like the Thomas trade, only with sprinkles on top (Morris, two firsts instead of a first and a second). Only here’s the thing, much like Thomas, Bryant comes with a huge price tag and was coming off a disappointing year – injuries rather than Peyton Manning being the limiting factor as he produced only 57 points. And much like Thomas, he failed to deliver in 2016 as well, an injury hit start hurting his total points and putting him out of the top twenty, but even his point per game return wouldn’t have been enough for a top ten finish. As for Diggs – he wasn’t as electric as Snead in his rookie year, but he showed flashes and attracted interest off the taxi squad. Much like Snead, he’s not a better player than the one he’s been traded for… yet. But he’s in a position to succeed, as a key part of his offence, and you’d rather be buying stock in Snead/Diggs right now than in Bryant or Thomas (though I’d favour Bryant over Thomas as a comeback candidate, because the Cowboys are better at QB right now and because Bryant’s been hurt rather than just bad).

Morris is mostly irrelevant to this trade, but he had a relatively unfriendly salary for a handcuff to the Sadness’ presumptive number one Elliot, so it was a worthwhile addition with cap space spare.

As for the picks – the 2016 1.08 was used on Kenneth Dixon, who’s sometimes looked good, but failed to really cement himself as the Baltimore lead running back as yet, unless he does this seems like a lost pick. The 2017 pick was traded back twice, to 1.08 with the Brees, then 2.01 with the Dungeoneers, netting a fifth rounder (subsequently traded down to move up from 2.04 to 2.02) and to move up 5 places in the 4th. The final landing spot at 2.01 was used on Kareem Hunt. Hunt has talent and if either he or Dixon end up as a number one back and a good RB1/2 to complement Elliot as the Sadness’ stud then they’re clear winners here. Similarly if Diggs develops into a good receiver at a WR2 sort of level, while Bryant fails to become a clear WR1 again, then you’d have to call the Sadness winners here, however if Dixon and Hunt end up in RBBC situations, and Diggs never really breaks out of the WR3/Flex level he was in his second year, then it’s probably going to favour Dyna Hard as I just don’t think Bryant is done yet, and even as an overpaid WR2 he still offers more than three at-best flex level players. All in all there’s a lot of ifs around this, and it could easily go either way still, so I think it’s fair to move on without declaring a clear winner.

Two

  • Dynasore Losers – 2016 1.04 to Firebirds; 2016 3.04 and 2017 Round 1 Pick to Tamworth Two
  • DynaForOne Firebirds – 2016 4.02 and 2017 Round 1 Pick
  • Tamworth Two – Landry, Jarvis MIA WR and 2016 3.09

There’s two different trades here, but ultimately the two go together as the Losers deal with the Firebirds was an attempt to recoup the 2017 first rounder lost in the deal for Landry as the 2017 draft seemed a lot stronger than the 2016 one did. So how did this all shake out?

The Firebirds gave up a pick valued in advance at 1.05, but which ultimately became 1.04, the same pick given up to get Landry, while the 2017 first became 1.02. As such the Losers didn’t lose spots in the draft as they ended up trading away their 2016 1.04 for what became the 2017 1.04, but because they ended up losing their own 1.02 and gaining the Firebirds 1.04 they did actually lose two spots. Still following? Good.

The Firebirds pick became Corey Coleman. So far he’s been better than Doctson and Treadwell, taken ahead of him, but worse than Shepherd and Michael Thomas who were taken after him. With only 60 points in his rookie season he’s a long way from being worth the first rounder given up to get him yet, but receivers do sometimes take time, and the Browns have a terrifyingly bad QB situation, so there’s still hope for him as that potentially improves.

The two picks the Firebirds gave up to get Coleman became Christian McCaffrey and Deion Jones. Right now there’s no two ways about this, Jones looks like a stud, scoring nearly 80 more points than Coleman in his rookie year as the top point scorer among (drafted) defensive rookies, and the 4th highest (drafted) rookie scorer (non-QB) in his class. Obviously, that’s only one season, but that’s all we have for both players so far.

As for the second half of the trade, the first given up on Landry was spent on Corey Davis. This worked out pretty well for both sides, with the Losers getting McCaffrey at #4 from their own trade into 2017 (who they would have taken at #2 anyway, given the need at RB) and T2 moving ahead of the Brees who had hoped to snag Davis at #3. It’s impossible to evaluate this up front, as Davis has yet to appear in an NFL game, but who wins that trade in the long run comes down to whether Landry or Davis ends up being the better receiver. As for the exchange of thirds… Rashard Higgins has produced little to nothing so far for T2, but does have great hair and plenty of time to come good (hopefully not a sign of things to come from Davis for them) while the 3.09 pick that went the other way was used in a package with Charles Sims to nab two picks from the Brees which were spent on DeAndre Washington and Adolphus Washington, if DeAndre Washington ends up a starter in Oakland then this part of the deal certainly favours the Losers, but that’s a big if with Beast Mode coming home to Oakland and looking to be the feature back for them. Adolphus may or may not do anything in the long run, it’s simply too early to say. If none of these three develop into viable fantasy options, then it will literally come down to the two receivers. While that’s certainly true when it comes to the long-term evaluation of the trade, it’s also fair to say that just on a fundamental level it’s almost always going to be better in a trade to get a young receiver with proven production rather than trading for a pick to draft one, no matter how highly they’re regarded – especially when that trade is for an unknown draft pick in the subsequent year’s draft.

The net of this three way trade is that the Losers bagged Christian McCaffrey, Deion Jones, Jarvis Landry and DeAndre Washington. T2 netted Corey Davis and Rashard Higgins while the Firebirds got Corey Coleman. A lot depends on how Coleman and Davis do over the next two or three years, but it’s fair to say that if McCaffrey is a bust the Losers have at worst got a pair of quality starters and for either T2 or the Firebirds to feel happy about their parts in this deal they’ll need their own high pick receivers to out-perform Landry at a minimum. It seems fair to say at this point though that the big loser looks to be the Firebirds, who’s Jedi trade tricks fail to work a third time as McCaffrey and Jones for Coleman seems heavily weighted in favour of the Losers, regardless of how Landry for Davis works out.

One

  • Here Comes The Brees –  2016 Picks 1.05 & 1.06 to Champions of the Sun; Donald, Aaron STL DT to Dynablaster Bombermen
  • Champions of the Sun – Robinson, Allen JAC WR
  • Dynablaster Bombermen – 2016 Round 1 & 4 Draft Picks and 2017 Round 1 Pick

Much like the previous example this is a three way trade essentially, but this with the Brees at the centre of it. In one sense the Brees gave up Donald to get Robinson, and got a 4th out of it but it’s a touch more complicated than that. Basically the Brees picked up a pair of firsts, spending the first of them, along with their own 2016 pick to get Allen Robinson. That’s not out of line with the prices paid for Bryant and Thomas, without giving up a young receiver in return. However that wrongly puts Thomas and Bryant (established studs with better seasons) on a par with Robinson who had one good season off the back of a high number of TD scores. Where Thomas and Bryant struggled to recapture their best form, which is probably what put them on the market, Robinson’s 2016 fall feels more like gravity pulling him back down (although he dropped further than I would have expected and should bounce back some in 2017). There’s arguments both ways on this as Robinson is also younger, had a decent seeming offence in place and had a season on the cheap before a massive extension would be due, however it was a massive pay rise as he jumped into the top tier of receivers, unlike Landry (who also commanded a first plus trade price) who finished just shy of a top tier extension cost. Ultimately, double firsts (and better ones than were paid for Bryant / Thomas) seems an slight overpay, just because Thomas and Landry didn’t quite stretch to double firsts, and I just don’t think he was established as a top tier player like Bryant and Thomas were, but it’s certainly not an indefensible one.

Meanwhile, Champions spent the 1.05 on Sterling Shepherd and traded away the 1.06 in the previously discussed Tate / Michael Thomas trade. So instead of picking Thomas and Shepherd and being clear winners in this trade they’ve ended up trading away a potential stud for a pair of at-best WR2s. That seems like a push at the moment, and will most likely come down to whether or not Robinson delivers WR1 value. If he doesn’t, his extension cost will mean the value pairing of Tate and Shepherd win out, but Shepherd’s ceiling is low with an in-decline Eli and a much-better Odell Beckham limiting his value to somewhere in the region of a WR3 and Tate looked poor for most of last year as Detroit struggled offensively so there’s plenty of scope for both sides to come away feeling unhappy about this, especially with what could have been for the Champions with Thomas.

And that brings us to the other side of this deal. While the Brees co-managers sit there wondering if they’re going to be stuck with a massively overpaid disappointment in Robinson, the Bombermen get Aaron Donald – outscoring all receivers and all other defensive players in both 2015 and 2016. I call that a win at almost any price. The two firsts the Bombermen gave up – 1.05 in 2016 and 1.08 in 2017 have gone on receivers, partly on Robinson as discussed and on Jon Ross (via a small trade up from 8 to 7), but realistically unless you end up with two WR1s out of that, then it’s hard to call it anything other than a loss, especially considering the massive salary differential between top tier receivers and a top DT (even after the Suh deal this summer). There is a light at the end of this tunnel though, and it might not even be a train. The Rams might be changing from a 4-3 to a 3-4 scheme with Jeff Fisher and Greg Williams being shown the door. If Donald ends up moved from DT to DE his point-scoring will drop significantly (just look at Kerry Hyder’s points in 2016’s league and in 2017’s following re-classification, they’ve virtually halved), and his extension cost will sky-rocket, if that happens then what looked like a rock solid win for the Bombermen becomes much, much more debatable. Ultimately it’ll still come down to how Robinson bounces back, and whether Ross is any sort of success, but they go from needing to find two top five receivers to maybe one top 10 receiver and a solid WR2. The 4th round pick in this trade I’ve mostly ignored so far, but for posterity’s sake it was spent on Braxton Miller, so it deserved to be ignored.

As a result then I’d say that while the Champions / Brees part of the trade is fairly even (with the Brees having the better potential to come out on top), the Brees are very much on the downside of the overall trade, swapping a defensive player who out-performs even the top receivers (for less money) for a player who isn’t a top receiver. While keeping to the cap doesn’t seem to be a problem for the Brees management as yet and maybe ameliorates some of that downside, it does still limit their ability to compete for the top free agents, or extend some useful players. It’s also fair to say that both the Brees and Champions GMs should feel more than a little bit rueful, as in both cases they had a chance to get both Shepherd and Thomas with those 1.05 and 1.06 picks and both teams would be in a better position if they’d just stopped after the first trade and used the picks they’d garnered.

 

Addendum There’s two teams not included in this write-up at all. That’s nothing against those teams, it’s just that I mostly found their trades fell into the ‘player-heavy’ category or the two picks for two picks category. The Dungeoneers did get a mention in one of the write-ups and pulled off some nice business, fleecing the Firebirds into giving up anything for Ryan Tannehill, the Bombermen into giving up good players for bad ones in the Carlos Hyde trade and getting the 1.02 pick for fat Eddie Lacy which they used on Amari Cooper (then wasted their own 1.03 on Kevin White, so that feels like a push to me). While that seems like a list of wins, they also overpaid the Brees for Keenan Allen’s one game a year and got absolutely destroyed by Kelkowski (the other team not mentioned) when they traded away Doug Baldwin for Stevie Johnson (oops). Kelkowski’s trades are mostly terribly dull and involve buying or selling expiring contracts at the trade deadline for 6th and 7th round picks.

The NFL Draft: Part Two

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So this is where the excitement comes – running backs. That’s true particularly this year, with a crop of varied and interesting talents. But before we deal with the individuals, let’s just quickly recap what I said in part one, about the draft value of Running Backs.

Running back is a deep position, and one that offers an immediate reward – all of the top ten rookies since 2007 at RB scored enough points in their first three years to crack the top ten over the last three years, in fact, all of the top 19 would have cracked the top 19 (and the 20th only misses out by a couple of points). However, draft position isn’t a great guide, with the top selected RB only making the top 10 once, and top three picks only accounting for 4 spots out of 10, with only two of the top ten were selected in round 1 (the top 2). And there’s a much bigger drop off between the best (800 points) and the 10th best (500) at the position that at either of the other two main offensive positions.

What that doesn’t cover is the longevity, the variable performances (Lacy for example, is one of the top ten rookies over the first three years, but at this point he’s pretty much a bum, who’s mainly drawing interest because he *might* do something again) and the meh-ness of a lot of the candidates who make the top ten in the bottom part of it, rather than at the elite level. Also, it does cover, but bears repeating, that the NFL draft position is not a particularly good guide to success, essentially making running back a profitable crapshoot. For anyone interested, here’s a list of rookie running backs over their first three seasons.

Anyway, on with the class – in less detail than the QBs, hopefully, as there’s a lot more of them..

Leonard Fournette (LSU) The consensus top RB in the draft, hardly a surprise as the guy is a serious slab of beef at 240 lbs in only a 6’0 frame. Unlike most big backs, he’s not slow though. In fact he’s downright fast, not just fast for a power guy. His 4.51 40 was only a couple of tenths slower than both Cook (210) and McCaffrey (202), with only Mixon and Freeman (both 233 and 4.45 / 4.46 respectively) showing a similar combination of speed and size. What they don’t have though is the same power level. This is not a runner you want to be waving an arm at, as he’s going to brush it off with disdain. I’ve picked the game against Auburn in 2015 as a decent showcase, though I was tempted to use the 2016 equivalent (I didn’t in the end, because I didn’t feel like it was fair to use a game from 2016, during which he battled ankle trouble all year). I feel like across these two you get a decent microcosm of the best and worst of him. One of the most startling and attractive elements is his speed, and the way he breaks arm tackles like he’s brushing off spider webs. And once he breaks loose of the bigger guys at the line, he will be a nightmare for most safeties or linebackers to try and bring down. However, in both tapes you see his tendency to try to break tackles with strength, rather than elusiveness. I mentioned above his 2016 season being hampered by ankle trouble, and I don’t see that injuries aren’t going to be a big concern for whoever ends up drafting him. Focusing on the 2016 game, though evident in the 2015 game also, there’s two other concerns that shine through. He’s not a patient runner, he runs in straight lines, at daylight and he doesn’t have great vision. He’s also an absolutely atrocious blocker in pass protection (and not too good in the passing game), and that might see him regularly off the field in scoring situations.

Auburn were one of the better defences (less so in 2015), and the SEC is not for the faint-hearted in general, but I would also be concerned about his performances against Alabama – in 2015 he had 19 carries for 31 and in 2016 17 for 35. A lot of that is due to the fact Alabama’s defensive front over-whelmed pretty much every offensive line, but it does throw up a warning flag for fantasy owners drafting Fournette. If he ends up in the wrong spot, behind a bad line, he could be a pretty spectacular bust – that lack of elusiveness, low patience and poor vision then become significant problems and likely see him regularly stopped behind the line. He’s consistently linked to Carolina, and while they invested fairly heavily in their line, they didn’t invest particularly well – both in terms of the quality of the players and not fixing problem spots. I’m not sure I’d be happy to spend a potential #1 pick on him if he ends up there. Better that he falls to someone like Philly in the middle of the first.

He’s drawn comparisons with AP, not because he likes beating children but because of that freak combination of power and speed, and that’s not unfair on that level. However, AP was a much more competent runner, with better vision and much more elusiveness and patience. Assuming he doesn’t land somewhere terrible think somewhere on a spectrum between Alfred Morris and AP, probably about 66% towards AP.

Dalvin Cook (FSU) Has taken a bit of a beating for his combine performance. His 40 was fine, if unspectacular, but his 3-cone drill and shuttle runs were outright terrible. He did however perform fine in the vert and was strong in the bench press. What does that tell us? That he’s not got a career as a dancer or a sprinter, but neither of those are the end of the world for a player who could be the first back off the board this weekend (unless he had his heart set on going on Dancing with the Stars). Cook’s a workhorse – not as freakish as Fournette, but he’s been more productive with a higher workload than him, and he’s a better weapon in the passing game, though not someone you’d call gifted in that area. Where with Fournette you can point to the peaks (vs Auburn in 2015) and the troughs (vs Alabama), there’s a steadiness to Cook – his “worst” games came in the middle of 2016 where he was carrying a prodigious workload (30+ touches a game) and was ‘only’ averaging between 5 and 6 yards a rush. This game against Miami from this year is from the midst of that run, but highlights why teams will be tempted to take him early – he just reliably churns out those 4-5 yard gains, hitting the hole, and when a crease opens up, he can go through it quickly enough (though he doesn’t have the explosiveness you see with Fournette, who finds another gear when that space appears). He does get lost in pass protection a little, but his reliability and versatility make him a three-down back.

His prodigious workload would be one of my concerns were I in an NFL front office. Just how much wear and tear has he picked up at FSU, particularly in relation to his two shoulder injuries could end up defining not just his draft position, but his longevity and impact. There are other red flags, and he’s not a player who’s avoided trouble, but the overall picture is of a guy who wants to play football, and does his best to avoid trouble. The stories about him from the Senior Bowl don’t ring true, and seem a lot like last year’s Laremy Tunsil drama – the work of a vindictive third party who’s perhaps playing a longer game of trying to scare other/future prospects into accepting his offer of help by showing what happens if they don’t. Ultimately, this stuff doesn’t help, but a lot of teams ‘don’t have player x on their draft board because of concerns’ when really they just mean ‘we have no chance of drafting him’ or ‘we have no need at this position’. And it really doesn’t matter what 31 other teams think, as long as one team likes you. As for comparisons and fantasy value… I think Fournette is more your lottery ticket, potential top three back, but Cook is the reliable every down back who’ll churn out top ten seasons, like Frank Gore or Jeremy Hill. Well worth the top three pick he’ll almost certainly command in the Dynabowl.

Christian McCaffrey (Stanford) is probably my favourite running back in the draft this year. He’s not as strong as Cook or Fournette, but he’s such a versatile weapon in both the passing and rushing games. I am genuinely excited to see what he can do in the NFL. Let’s start by dispelling some of the weird ideas people have got – he’s not a receiver. He’s a running back, and he’s more than capable of carrying the load, as his 2000 yard, 340 carry 2015 season showed. It’s lost among the many stats and records he broke on his way to breaking Barry Sanders NCAA all-purpose yardage record in 2015 as well as being the leader in that category again in 2016, that the majority of his work is still done on the ground. McCaffrey wowed at the combine in both the 3-cone and shuttle drills, and his quick feet and ability to make guys miss was fully on show in the PAC-12 title game against USC when he scored rushing, receiving and passing touchdowns on a day when he had over 450 all-purpose yards. His lack of physical strength was demonstrated by a fairly pathetic bench press performance, and teams might have some concern about him as a three-down back, but on the right team they could just split him out as a slot receiver on some of those plays and bring in a fullback to protect instead.

It’s unlikely he goes off the board before Fournette or Cook in either the NFL or a fantasy draft, but McCaffrey is the guy I’d most want in fantasy leagues, he’s just productive in all phases of the game, and always a threat to break a big play, and depending on where he lands (the Saints, the Giants) he could easily find himself catapulted to the top of fantasy draft boards. It’s a little obvious to make the comparison with Sproles or Bush, and it doesn’t quite fit as while he’s a much better runner, he’s not quite as dangerous in the open field. I think if you start thinking of Shady McCoy, but temper your expectations down from quite that height, you’re pretty close. I mentioned the Saints and Giants, but realistically it’s very hard to see him falling past Philly (and I wouldn’t rule out the Ravens either), but if he does, I can see the Broncos aggressively moving up for him. Suffice to say, where with Cook I made the point it only takes one team to fall in love, with McCaffrey it seems like many have, and it may be a question of who is willing to be the most aggressive to secure him.

Alvin Kamara (Tennessee) is the sign that we’re definitely into the second cut of receivers. Originally recruited by Alabama, injuries and better players saw him essentially redundant there, and he ended up at Tennessee after a year in junior college. Two years of consistent play and here we are. Just shy of 2,000 yards from scrimmage despite a relatively small number of touches, and a sizeable chunk of scoring plays. He’s a versatile weapon, but has little to separate him from the rest of the running back pack – he’s not strong like Fournette, agile like McCaffrey nor quick, like Foreman or Mixon. He’s just a solidly productive back in both the passing and the running game, and in the mid to late second round could end up being a relatively good pick for a productive offence looking for a versatile weapon (hello Green Bay). His fantasy value will very much be tied to where he lands, but assuming he doesn’t end up on an outright terrible team (SF, Cleveland) or stuck behind a better back as a useful piece of a committee (like New England’s), he’ll be a nice addition for whoever drafts him. I’d probably prefer to get him early in the second in the Dynabowl, but I doubt he’ll drop that far, even as the fifth or sixth RB off the board. This game against a very good Texas A&M defence (including presumptive #1 pick Myles Garrett) is easily the best of his college career, and highlights his low to the ground running style and ability to break off a big run. I made a point of talking down Mitch Trubisky for being a reliable and unspectacular QB option, but that’s because reliable and unspectacular QBs with no particular strengths or glaring weaknesses aren’t good for fantasy owners (nor are they particularly good for NFL teams). Running backs who are average at everything however are much more enticing, and unspectacular reliability is a solid foundation for a low RB1/high RB2 that you’d be very happy to get with a late first / early second pick. It’s possible that he’ll end up as a complementary piece to a main back, like Jeremy Hill in Cincy. At which point he becomes a very low value pick, considering his low upside against the cost of the pick.

D’Onta Foreman (Texas) led the NCAA with over 2000 yards in 2016, emerging from the depths of the Texas depth chart to have a spectacular season. He’s not an exciting prospect at the next level though, as there’s really not much to his game. He’s a bruising runner, with no real elusiveness or guile, and he’s no threat in the passing game. He’ll be a solid pick up in the mid-rounds of the NFL draft, but in fantasy he’ll probably end up over-drafted. He might emerge from a committee or because of injuries, but as he enters the draft he’s most likely seen as a committee piece, because he’s simply not going to see play in any passing situation (except as a blocker). Because he’s probably the fifth or sixth best back in the draft, I’d recommend steering clear unless he gets a very sweet landing spot in the NFL (Oakland, Washington would be good). Where he could excel is if he gets a job behind a good offensive line and emerges as a clear starter. At Texas he displayed good patience to follow his blocks, and despite what I said about his lack of elusiveness he’s still capable of cutting and following the flow of the play. While he lacks explosive acceleration, that’s not the same as him lacking speed, as he displayed with his quick 40 time. He needs a few steps to get going, but when he does he’s plenty quick enough, especially considering his 233lb frame. One thing he does have in his favour is nobody will doubt his durability, nor his ability to be a workhorse back, and the consistency of his performance in 2016 will probably catch the eye of some scouts. Anyway, here he is against Oklahoma State.

Right, that just leaves two main guys left, team mates Samaje Perine and Joe Mixon (Oklahoma). While there’s a lot of other backs left, and notable ones (Pumphrey, Gallman for example) there needs to be a line drawn somewhere and this feels like about the right spot – somewhere in the 4th round of the NFL draft.

So, starting with Samaje Perine – a three year starter on a perenially competitive Oklahoma team, Perine absolutely smashed the bench press at the combine and that’s ultimately what you need to know about him. Everything I just said about Foreman applies again here – he’s nowhere near the quickness of Foreman or Fournette though, he’s just a classic big, strong back. Like Brandon Jacobs, only not afraid of being tackled. Perine probably won’t do much at the next level, I don’t honestly see him cracking the top twenty rookies, but he could end up being one of those breakout guys – like Rob Kelley – who win your fantasy league for you if he ends up on a team with a shaky depth chart, or injuries bite hard. As for fantasy picks, he’ll get taken, but I wouldn’t bother unless he lands in a spot like SF or Cleveland where he’ll be a default starter, as otherwise he’s at best he’s a handcuff to your main guy.

And last of all… Joe Mixon so let’s start, as with everyone else, of a video of him in action. It’s near impossible to predict where he’ll land. I mean, he’s being only McCaffrey as an all-purpose threat in this draft and in college football last year, so it’s not a question of his on-field production, he’d potentially be in the mix with Cook, Fournette and McCaffrey at the top of this draft on footballing talent alone.

But this wasn’t the only incident involving him, with his suspension for an incident (abusive and violent – though not physically – towards a female parking attendant) this season, as well as his suspension for a year for the punch in the video. Ultimately teams may feel this is a ticking time-bomb and the negativity around him doesn’t warrant the pick. Let’s face it, the league hates controversy and nobody has yet signed Kaepernick when all he did was kneel down. Ray Rice and Ray McDonald haven’t played again, while Greg Hardy also finds himself on the black-list, though it took longer than it should have for him to get there. It’s really awkward, because talent tends to trump controversy in most cases (Tyreek Hill got drafted after all), but the video of the incident is on another level entirely, worse even than the Rice one. There is also a question about where the league will fall on this, whether Mixon will face the wrath of Goodell for something that happened long before he entered the league. Whether Goodell even has the authority to punish someone for that. Either way, it seems likely there’s a TMZ element to this that will turn a number of teams off completely, particularly those involved in abuse scandals before (49ers, Ravens, Panthers), but at some point, the risk will be outweighed by the reward. As with Carroo last year, he’s not a player I’d be drafting in fantasy, no matter how far he falls. He’s a cunt, and so are you if you draft him. Talent-wise though, he’s a top six pick, and that’s where he’ll go.

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