Kelvin Benjamin – The DynaBowl

Team: Dynablaster Bombermen – Benjamin Hendy/Dan Smith

2014 Record: 7-6, 6^th pick, missed playoffs based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Melvin Gordon (RB), David Johnson (RB), Chris Conley (WR), Justin Hardy (WR), Trae Waynes (CB), Shane Ray (LB)

Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB), Cameron Wake (DE), Joe Flacco (QB)

Trade – Jeremy Hill (RB), Andre Johnson (WR), Vontae Davis (CB), Connor Barwin (LB), Jurrell Casey (DE), Orlando Scandrick (CB)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Frank Gore (RB), Devin McCourty (S)

Trade – Rob Ninkovich (DE), Brandon Graham (LB), Charles Sims (RB), Danny Lansanah (LB), Andre Williams (RB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Ha-Ha Clinton Dix (S)

Preview:

Missing out on the playoffs on the last day of the 2014 season was blow, but one the team deserved. This was the second most over-achieving team with an AWE of 6.11, nearly a full game below the actual number of wins achieved through the season. The team had only a 39% chance of winning at least 7 games and so can be considered a little lucky.

In addition, the team was closer to the bottom of the league than the top when it came to total points and potential points while team selection efficiency was pretty much bang on league average at 78.6%. All told, a lot of work was needed in the off-season to revamp this team and kick on in 2015.

The work is only partly done at QB. Matt Ryan is a fine starter and with a new coach and OC in Atlanta and a good supporting cast, he should be absolutely fine, with top 10 numbers being the minimum expectation. Johnny Fucking Football is gone, just when he looked like becoming the best QB in Cleveland. But then none of the GMs of this league are in Cleveland – if they went, the moment they touched down they’d be a strong second at the minimum. RG3 will be given a season to see if anything is salvageable, but otherwise Chatterbowl winner Joe Flacco should provide able backup.

A lot of change at RB, with steal of the century (calling Lacy a steal is a disservice to the art of thievery) Jeremy Hill coming in. The team have three teams’ backfield situations wrapped up in San Diego, Cincinnati and Arizona, and while only Cincinnati would be considered a top 10 group, there’s hope that this could be one of the stronger RB units in the DynaBowl in 2015.

Less turnover at receiver, where less work was needed. Andre Johnson has the best QB situation of his HoF-worthy career and will be looking to make hay while he can while AJ Green will be looking to bounce back from a terrible down-year. Fantasy Football is a what-have-you-done-for-me-lately world and Green’s value has fallen but Hendy & Smith will be looking for it to be back at the top table come December.

The team has its 2014 rookies returning… well, two out of three. The loss of Kelvin Benjamin is painful but one this roster should be able to withstand. Cooks looks to be the central figure in New Orleans while Jordan Matthews should be a high volume operator in Philadelphia. Anquan Boldin is a useful back-up, while Conley and Hardy represent developing players who are unlikely to contribute much in 2015.

While the loss of Benjamin undoubtedly hurt the WR options, it only offered a boost at TE where Greg Olsen should be the biggest beneficiary. Already a top 5 TE, he could be well placed to become the third man. ASJ, Jordan Cameron Jordan and Miychaele Rivieria all offer decent depth.

Positional changes mean there’s a bit of a lack of balance at DE and DT – too many of the former and too few of the latter could lead to a few problems in selection and if Jordan Hill gets injured there could be real issues on the line, but there’s good depth at all other positions. This was one of the best defences in 2014 and will be looking to keep a seat at the top table in 2015. It’s not going to be number 1 or 2, but has a good chance of being number 3 on that list. The only problem could be how to pick the right players each week.

Verdict:

This roster has been reshaped into one of the stronger options in the league. On paper. Given the underperformance of AJ Green last year, there’s surely no chickens being counted in the Bombermen head office. But even if players perform only at the lower end of expectations, this team should be competing for playoffs. If Hill, Green, and Ryan all fire like the stars they can be and if defensive selection goes well, they could be competing for top honours.

Prediction:

7-6, playoffs on head-to-head, anything more might be asking too much. They don’t have the strength and depth of the very best teams but they stand a chance of hitting the big time. Another season over .500 is the minimum expectation.

Team: East Flanders Dungeoneers – Pete Conaghan

2014 Record: 5-8, 3^rd pick based on head to head.

Significant Additions:

Draft – Amari Cooper (WR), Kevin White (WR), Devin Smith, (WR)

Free Agency – Justin Forsett (RB), Coby Fleener (TE)

Trade – Cam Newton (QB), Ryan Tannehill (QB), Carlos Hyde (RB), Michael Floyd (WR), Terrance Williams (WR), Vernon Davis (TE), Stevie Johnson (WR)

Significant Losses:

Free Agency – Brandon Oliver (RB)

Trade –Eddie Lacy (RB), Drew Brees (QB), Andre Johnson (WR), Connor Barwin (LB), Vontae Davis (CB), Frank Gore (RB), Charles Clay (TE), Jason Witten (TE)

Preview:

We’ll go through the motions with what happened last year but it almost has no bearing on 2015 given the wholesale changes that have occurred throughout this team. Very little remains in place for 2014 and given the miserable performance that’s not necessarily a bad thing. But let’s go back and look at that miserable performance first.

An Apollonean Win Expectation (AWE)* of 4.18 against 5 actual wins shows that the Dungeoneers overperformed while the schedule analysis showed they had a 41% chance of reach 5 wins. They scored the fewest points, had the second lowest potential points and the league worst selection efficiency, 3.9% worse than the Hard in 9^th place. There was not much to smile about.

The team had money to spend but free agency was not packed with options. Instead, the Dungeoneers have shifted money forward for the traded contracts to ensure cap space in future years when more players should be available, and in the meantime have moved to revamp the roster as much as possible.

The move for the second pick in the draft from DoS meant losing Eddie Lacy, the undisputed star player on the team. The Dungeoneers had better hope that Amari Cooper develops into a suitable replacement because Kevin White, taken at 3, is already out for 2015 and the lack of opportunity to develop this year may severely limit his impact in 2016 and beyond.

Lacy aside, the running back corps are stronger than last year. Forsett is a strong grab, if only a short term option. Trading midseason to a team in contention for more picks or youth might be a sensible way to capitalise on him. Carlos Hyde is a better long term option, though the risk of the 49ers consistently playing from behind means he may not get the carries that would have been hoped for back before everyone good at 49ers decided they’d either rather do anything but play for Jim Tomsula or consoled themselves in vast quantities of alcohol.

At wide receiver Allen and Floyd could both put up good numbers, as could the aging Marshall, but there’s a strong young core here who, while they won’t be ready to truly compete in 2015, should offer some glimpses. As well as Cooper and White, there’s Davonte Adams, Kenny Stills and Devin Smith. All could contribute and the Dungeoneers will only need one of them to become a B level star to start smiling. Again, selling Marshall mid-season to a contender, if he’s doing well in New York, would seem to be the most sensible option to capitalise on him, because whatever he can do now will not help East Flanders into the playoffs and when they’re ready to make that leap, he will be on the verge of retiring.

The incoming Tannehill and Newton are two good signings, though Tannehill was far too expensive. Between them, the Dungeoneers should be able to pick and choose match-ups and put together a good season, though the Kelvin Benjamin injury reduces Newton’s maximum output. The Miami moves suggest that that Tannehill should be airing the ball out a bit more. That could mean more INTs but it also could bump both yards and TDs significantly.

The defence looks solid, if unspectacular, and with good management through the season could well rank in the top half.

Verdict:

2015 is a rebuilding year and some basic blocks are in place. Conaghan will be looking to see signs of development, particularly in his receiving corps, while also hoping to get to grips with selection and moving up to a league average selection efficiency. Success looks like a degree of competence, something which was a little lacking in 2014.

Prediction:

4-9 and first pick. Yes, this would look like a step back from 2014, but given the youth that’s been brought in to develop, this is no bad thing. Securing the first overall pick is a victory in and of itself and if aging players can be sold for further picks, this could lay the groundwork for a decent team in a couple of years time.

*Apollonean Win Expectation is similar to Pythagorean Win Expectation, except it’s kind of a bullshit made up version. The methodology is explained in this article, although I am coining the name Apollonean win expectation in this very piece here.

2015 Commish Preview: Dynablaster Bombermen

2015 Commish Preview: East Flanders Dungeoneers

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