Category: Max Stat Blats

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Weeks 1-4

Max Stat Blats No Comments

Like a bad 80s pop group the Stat Blats just keep coming back, regardless of whether they’re merely a shadow of their former selves.  This week I take a look at how the 10 Dynabowl teams have started out the season and which units are propping their teams up and which deserve to be put gently to sleep.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks, Receivers

Spearheaded by new draft pick Leonard Fournette and suprisingly-currently-healthy Carlos Hyde the Dungeoneers have the third highest average scoring running back unit in the Dynabowl at the moment.  Both of the aforementioned chuggers are in the top 10 at the position through 4 weeks but Pete Conaghan will be hoping that nothing happens to either of them as the likes of Terrance West and Chris Ivory don’t offer much backup.  As the season develops his reserve strength may improve if Alex Collins and Samaje Perine can make inroads into the starting jobs on their teams but if not those bye weeks are going to hit the Dungeoneers hard at this position.

Another area of strength for the Dungeoneers is their secondary as, again, they are third highest scorers at the position.  Given that the team only has 1 CB (Chris Harris) in the top 50 scorers at the position it will not surprise you to learn that most of this success has come from the tandem safety pairing of Karl Joseph (Oakland) and Kevin Byard (Tennessee) with Ha-Ha Clinton Dix providing able cover for injuries and bye weeks.  Really Pete should be looking to draft in another cornerback or two as with some improvement at this position he could have the best secondary in the Dbowl.

On the frowny-face side, we have the fact that the Flanders Quarterbacks are the lowest scoring unit, on average, in the league garnering a measly 13.32 points per game, nearly 4 points below the average.  Given that both Carson Wentz and Deshaun Watson are in the top 10 at the position however this really has to come down to head coaching decision as Pete put his faith in Cam Newton for the first two weeks, missing Wentz’ big games, and then went to Wentz for weeks 3 and 4, missing Newton and Watson’s big games.  This is a selection headache that Pete Conaghan will have every week going forward but the law of averages says he’s going to start guessing right at some point and that score should creep up.

Really, it’s no wonder that the Dungeoneers’ QBs are struggling with this shower to throw to though.  With only three WRs in the top 60 at the position (and one of those has been riding the pine) the Dungeoneers are the second worst team at this position a whopping 9 points below the average.  Amari Cooper has to answer for some of these problems as the much-vaunted Raiders’ receiver isn’t even in the top 60 wide receivers after four weeks.  With second year pro Josh Doctson failing to spark early on a lot is riding on the shoulders of Keenan Allen and Davante Adams and I’m sad to say that I can’t see this unit improving much in the coming weeks.

Offence Average: 94.24 points (7th)
Defence Average: 78.53 points (4th)
Overall Average: 172.76 points (7th)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Peter)

 

Here Comes The Brees

Forging Ahead: Defensive Line, Secondary
Stuck in the Mud: Receivers, Linebackers

The Brees’ production line of defensive tackle talent continues apace.  Unperturbed by the departure of Aaron Donald, Ben Archer has continued to dominate at the position with the only thing stopping him having the top two scoring tackles being an injury to Fletcher Cox that has limited his scoring to only 5th at the position.  The tandem of Cox and DeForest Buckner will, injury permitting, continue to rack up points for the rest of the year.  The DE position is the poor country cousin in this unit by comparison but Cameron Jordan is steady as ever, putting up DE1 numbers through 4 weeks, and Michael Bennett is sitting comfortably in the top 20 too.

A top pass defence is made up of a powerful rush and good players in the secondary and the Brees have the latter part of that locked down too having scored the second most points there so far this season, only just behind the Sadness in 1st.  Much like the Dungeoneers, however, this unit is severely unbalanced in favour of the safeties.  The Brees only have one cornerback in the top 30, Justin Bethel.  Given that over half of Bethel’s points came in week 1 when he wasn’t even on the roster this is not great performance.  Thank the Lord for their safeties then.  With 4 players in the top 21 the Brees have top production and strength in-depth enough here to cover bye weeks and injuries.  With Ronald Darby coming back in a few weeks the Brees should be set to keep producing at a high level in the secondary.  Looking at these pieces it’s small wonder the Brees have the best defence in the Dbowl at the moment.

Maybe they should look at converting some of those secondary players to receivers as it’s unlikely they could be much worse than the reprobates currently filling their roster out at the wide receiver position.  Until this week the injury to Allen Robinson and under-performance of Martavis Bryant meant that JJ Nelson was the only receiver in the top 40.  Ben Archer has not sat idly by through this crisis however and this week saw a move made to bring in an elite option in the shape of JJ’s big white brother, Jordy.  The steady WR1 production he will bring to the Brees can anchor them and if Bryant can work into the form they may yet turn out to be ok.  Particularly given the strong showing from their TEs so far this year where, even with Tyler Eifert’s injury problems, they have two guys in the top 10 as both Zach Ertz and Charles Clay have been target hogs for their teams.

The picture is not so rosy at linebacker where, even allowing for the fact that they have only started three players at the position in two of the weeks, the output has been poor.  This is really a story of a lack of elite options as the Brees have 3 guys in the top 40 and Shaq Thompson just outside that.  The dudes they have are doing ok but to pick up performance somebody needs to step up to the table and hit at least high LB2 levels.  With that a unit that is already at the top end of what the Dbowl has to offer could become a true runaway leader on that side of the ball.

Offence Average: 93.54 points (8th)
Defence Average: 85.06 points (1st)
Overall Average: 178.60 points (6th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Peter)

 

Tamworth Two

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Running Backs, Secondary

Slim pickings for T2 in what has been a disappointing start to the season for them.  With most of their units hovering around average the only thing to really pick out for comment in good terms is the Quarterbacks where they score 3.5 points more than average and are 3rd strongest amongst all Dbowlers.  Not much analysis to be done though, that’s just what happens when Aaron Rodgers is your QB.  Kirk Cousins provides strong backup at the position for bye week cover but T2 better hope Rodgers stays healthy or one of the few things that’s been going right for them this year may disappear.

To say that T2 have been struggling at the RB position seems odd.  On paper their attack of LeSean McCoy, Bilal Powell, Mike Gilislee and Duke Johnson looks strong but those players have just not performed consistently with none of them cracking the top 15 backs so far this year.  As a consequence T2 are actually 2nd lowest scoring at the position, 7 points per week behind the average and over 21 points per week behind the top unit.  This feels like a blip though, I fully expect this unit to have returned to the top half by the end of the year as NFL offences warm up, the Patriots stop getting into shootouts every week and the Jets realise that Bilal Powell is more or less their only weapon on offence.

Their problems at secondary may not correct themselves as automatically however.  Through 4 weeks the returning ability of Adoree Jackson makes him their only succesful option at CB and Landon Collins, a monster last season, has disappointed so far this year putting in only low S2 numbers.  The good news for T2 is that with scores of 11.5, 15.25, 22 and 28.18 the performance of their secondary is trending up as Goodson and Ward start to get their selections right and work that blind bidding for better options.  T2 are consistently amongst the best in the Dbowl at building defences and spotting strong performers early so I am confident this can be turned around.

Offence Average: 95.36 points (6th)
Defence Average: 77.03 points (6th)
Overall Average: 172.39 points (8th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Peter)

 

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Receivers (also Secondary but I’m fed up of writing about secondaries already)
Stuck in the Mud: Er… Special Teams?

My prediction for Dbowl champions ahead of the season, the Sadness have had a funny old start to the year.  They’ve scored very well being, on average, the 2nd highest points scorer in the competition yet they are 2-2 after 4 weeks.  Scoring of that kind of calibre should pay off over the course of 13 weeks though and I would be surprised if they didn’t make the playoffs.  Their running backs are really leading the charge for Mangboob’s team as they are the top scoring unit of their type in the league, a frankly silly 7 points better per week than anyone else and 14 points above the average.  Kareem Hunt’s superhuman breakout is a large part of this but with Ezekiel Elliott and Ameer Abdullah on the books too, the Sadness are not just a one-trick pony.  Assuming that Jacquizz Rodgers loses his starting job to Doug Martin the bye weeks could present a problem for Mangboob, however, as he only has Theo Riddick and Shane Vereen backing up his starters.  Having said that, there aren’t many teams in the league for whom bye weeks aren’t a problem though as the RB position is thin for a league playing three starters each week.

The Sadness actually have a complete offence though with their receivers lagging only slightly behind the backs, being the 2nd highest scoring unit so far this year, 8.5 points per week above the average.  This position is only really likely to improve too as Odell Beckham is currently outside the top 20 WRs due to injury and Eli (admittedly, only one of those is going to go away).  Stefon Diggs and Michael Thomas lead the line for the Sadness with the former being the #1 receiver so far this season (how’s that Dez Bryant trade looking, Chris?).  There is strength in-depth here too with Allen Hurns, Pierre Garcon and Ted Ginn all sitting behind the front 3 ready to contribute solid WR4 numbers.  At TE they appear comfortable too as, even with Jordan Reed’s disappointing start to the season, Delanie Walker is still a mid-tier TE1 able to happily cover the position off and put up good numbers.

They also have the best secondary.  Same story as everyone else here really.  Rubbish CBs and really good Safeties.  It’s almost like the CB position is impossible to predict, eh?

So where do the Sadness fall down then?  It’s difficult to pick out a problem area to be honest as, really, the issue is that too many of their other units (LB, D-line, QB) are just at or below average.  The only place they fail to score well is on special teams where the Sadness’ haul of 10.16 points per game is the worst in the league.  Despite both his kicker and punter being miles outside the top 20 at the position, Mangboob is keeping faith with both of them seemingly and this could be a problem as he’s currently giving away 4 points per week to the average team due to this oversight although at least he hasn’t lost any games by that margin so far this year.

Offence Average: 119.25 points (2nd)
Defence Average: 78.48 points (5th)
Overall Average: 197.72 points (2nd)
Record: 2-2 (3rd in Peter)

 

Dynasore Losers

Forging Ahead: Running Backs, Quarterbacks
Stuck in the Mud: Everything Else

Look, there’s not much point in going into the stats here.  David Slater’s Losers are in full rebuild mode here with their ageing or short contract players being traded away for picks so looking at the numbers tells us nothing.  Let’s instead take a look at the players that the Dynasore Losers have to anchor that rebuild around.

First off, they look set at Quarterback.  I don’t know what happened to Derek Carr in the last two weeks but, long-term, I think he’ll be a good fantasy Quarterback and Jameis Winston is no slouch either though Slater could probably do with Winston not cracking the top 7 this year to keep his renewal price down.  At any rate, there’s no immediate need at this position.

Similarly at RB the building blocks are in place for a decent unit.  Despite both being on the same team, Jordan Howard and Tarik Cohen have very different roles and there’s no reason why both can’t be top 25 at their position at least in a year if the offence is built right.  Behind those two sit Jalen Richard and DeAndre Washington who will, I think, in the next few weeks start to take more workload away from Marshawn Lynch who is starting to look his age after a bit of week 1 and 2 freshness.  Add Christian McCaffrey on top of that and this part of the team should be fine.

Offence Average: 82.53 points (10th)
Defence Average: 54.61 points (10th)
Overall Average: 137.14 points (10th)
Record: 0-4 (5th in Peter)

 

Champions of the Sun

Forging Ahead: Receivers, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line, Secondary

Apart from an inexplicably terrible week 1 performance the former Dbowl champions have looked strong so far this year, led by their receivers and linebackers, both of whom are the top scoring units at their position so far this year.  At WR, the Champions have 7 players in the top 40 and 4 in the top 20, showcasing impressive (and somewhat unexpected) strength in-depth that should see them able to cope with their bye weeks ok.  It would be fair to question whether the performances of the likes of Chris Hogan (TD dependent so far) and Sterling Shepard (a lack of OBJ) can continue but even with a bit of regression from a couple of players they should remain strong to season’s end.

By contrast, the linebacker performance is all about top end with three guys in the top 5 (Clowney, Houston and Mack) and McKinney in the top 20 but then only one more player anywhere in the top 50.  This performance is more likely to drop, both through injury and bye weeks and Clowney’s large number of big plays through 4 weeks.  Max Cubberley will hope to see more from the likes of Anthony Barr, Kiko Alonso and Jamie Collins in the coming weeks to bolster his options at the position.

Really, it’s a good job the linebackers are doing well because the D-line and the secondary have been a disappointment.  After signing Leonard Williams to a decent sized extension this off-season Cubberley will have been hoping the Jets DE could be an every week starter but he only has 6.5 points through 4 weeks.  Combined with Khalil Mack’s off-season re-positioning to LB, the Champions have been left in the lurch and this shows with an average weekly score of only 16.88, good for 9th in the league.  The bright spot for Cubberley is Dante Fowler’s emergence and he must now be an every week starter despite his comparatively low snap count.  The Champions felt confident at DT going into the season with Marcell Dareus, Sheldon Rankins and Maliek Collins but so far only Collins has had any value and Dareus has recently been dropped.  This unit should improve going forward with the addition of Danielle Hunter and the emergence of Dante Fowler and Cubberley will hope it does to take some pressure off his LBs.

The same will be needed from the Champions’ secondary who have scored 20.19 points per game so far this year, 8th in the league and 2.5 points below average.  There are some mitigating factors here however with 3 of the Champions’ 8 starting CBs (PJ Williams, Orlando Scandrick, Josh Norman) so far this year unable to even complete the first half of their games.  The players who have seen out the games haven’t been great either though with none of Reshad Jones, Jahleel Addae or TJ Ward able to put up points at safety.  Cubberley will be hoping that the recently promoted Malik Hooker (#9 safety so far) and the added EJ Gaines and Jason McCourty can help the unit to kick on.

Offence Average: 121.68 points (1st)
Defence Average: 80.16 points (3rd)
Overall Average: 201.84 points (1st)
Record: 3-1 (3rd in Tim)

 

DynaForOne Firebirds

Forging Ahead: Quarterbacks, Defensive Line, Special Teams
Stuck in the Mud: Secondary

Looking through the Firebirds stats it is apparent how unlucky they are to be 1-3 and bottom of Tim.  They have a number of units performing very well (as well as the ones I’ll cover their receivers are very good too) and even their lesser performing units are largely just below average rather than bad (with one exception).

The place to start here is at Quarterback where Neil Hawke has rolled out Russell Wilson every week except one and, despite the Seahawks’ struggles, done very well out of it.  After a slow start (which saw Wilson dropped for Big Phil Rivers) the diminutive QB has racked up the points with over 60 in the last two weeks, good enough for #3 at the position behind Tom Brady and Alex(!) Smith(!!!!).  With Rivers and Dak Prescott backing up Wilson, the Birds are set for a few years here.

Perhaps more surprising is the Firebirds’ performance at receiver where they rank 3rd behind only the Champions of the Sun and the Dynasty of Sadness.  Sure, you would expect a unit led by Julio Jones and Rob Gronkowski to be good but, whilst Gronk’s been Gronking, Jones is only the #31 WR so far.  The real star has been not-quite-dead-yet Larry Fitzgerald, who is lurking in the top 10 but beyond that Hawke’s receivers are doing fine but not spectacularly.  It all goes to show the difference that Gronkowski makes as a TE with his superiority at the position helping to take the burden away from everyone else.  A quick note here on Neil’s special teams unit who are the best in the league.  With the #2 kicker and the #6 punter the points are going on the board every week at a steady rate.  Take note Mangboob!

The real weakness in the Firebirds’ team is the secondary, the lowest scoring in the Dbowl and giving away 2 points to the secondary in 9th and 5.5 points to the average secondary.  The worst part of this is the Hawke actually has good players at the position.  Darius Slay and Desmond Trufant are the #3 and #16 CBs and Devin McCourty is the #16 safety.  True, he has no good second option at safety but perhaps this a case of too much tinkering.  If Hawke keeps it simple from now and plays his top-scoring guys every week there should be an improvement here.

 

Offence Average: 114.80 points (3rd)
Defence Average: 67.63 points (8th)
Overall Average: 182.43 points (5th)
Record: 1-3 (5th in Tim)

 

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No Dyna Rules

Forging Ahead: Sorry lads…
Stuck in the Mud: Running backs, receivers, linebackers

Ooof, talk about first to worst.  Well, you can’t quite talk about that thanks to the Dynasore Losers epic deconstruction of what can be considered a “team” but the season is not going well for Kelkowski.  As such I have nothing positive to say.  Their D-line and Quarterbacks are both 4th in the league but every other unit is below average and, in the case of their running backs, worst in the league.  Scoring an incredible 18.13 points per week, Kelkowski’s ball-movers are giving away an almost unbelievable 14.5 points per game to the average Dbowl running attack.  Speaking as someone who owns both DeMarco Murray and Derrick Henry in the Cbowl I can see where a lot of this problem is coming from but Mark Ingram has not been doing the business either and behind those three is only the walking corpse of Chris Johnson and whatever a TJ Yeldon is.  Boys, I know that trading is for suckers but it may be time to start dusting off the fax machine and finding some way to address this problem.

Although, maybe that would just be a waste of time.  After all, Kelkowski’s receivers are only one place better, being 9th in the league and only .7 points per week ahead of the Dynasore Losers.  At least they’re only giving away 6 points per week to the average team here though so that’s an improvement right?  When your top four scoring receivers are Devin Funchess, Rishard Matthews, Travis Benjamin and Jaron Brown though you are going to have a problem.  To be fair to them Kelkowski have hit a perfect storm of under performance so far this year.  Randall Cobb, Jeremy Maclin and Terelle Pryor have all been major disappointments in one way or another and find themselves all outside the top 40 receivers.  At this point though, would anyone like to bet that they will improve?  I’m not sure I would.

This roast now concludes with a look at Kelkowski’s linebackers, traditionally a strong unit for them.  Although bad (4th worst in the league and giving 6 points away to the average) this area is not as disastrous as the two above.  Kwon Alexander and Dont’a Hightower has been missing most of the year and that’s two big names to be without.  Behind them both Terrell Suggs and recently acquired Nick Vigil are performing at LB2 levels and there are a cadre of guys lower than that who have been ok but nothing more.  Really the team is suffering from a lack of high impact players at the position and this should get better when Alexander and Hightower are back and now Nick Vigil’s apparent 10-tackle-floor can kick in.

Offence Average: 85.20 points (9th)
Defence Average: 65.66 points (9th)
Overall Average: 150.86 points (9th)
Record: 1-3 (4th in Tim)

 

Live Free or Dyna Hard

Forging Ahead: Running backs, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Defensive Line

In many ways, DynaHard are the anti-Tamworth Two in that their success comes this year from being at or just above average in most things and not having any real weaknesses.  One of their best units though has been their running backs who are the second highest scoring (albeit still 7 points a week behind Mangboob’s powerhouses).  The resurgent Todd Gurley (#2) leads the way and Chris Braithwaite has a guy in every tier from there down with Ty Montgomery performing as an RB2, Frank Gore as an RB3 and Wendell Smallwood as an RB4.  To cover his bye weeks Chris is going to have to hope that wily vets Jamaal Charles and Marshawn Lynch still have something in the tank but, fitness allowing, Gurley and A. N. Other running back should really be enough to keep up a high level of performance.

Although not performing as well as his running backs, Braithwaite’s linebackers are 3rd in the league and best of the rest behind the elite performances of the Champions of the Sun and the Bombermen (see below).  CJ Mosley, Ryan Kerrigan and Von Miller are all in the top 10 with TJ Watt and Demario Davis also in the top 21.  Continuing to look down the list we find Jatavis Brown and Thomas Davis both putting up decent numbers for bye week cover and this unit should continue at this level, if not improve, to season’s end.  If anything I would expect to see them close the gap on the top 2 rather than sink down into the pack.

As mentioned, there’s not much that DynaHard are bad at but Braithwaite will be disappointed in his defensive line so far this year.  A lot of resources are tied up in JJ Watt and, for understandable reasons, he has not looked anything like his former self so far this year.  That puts the DE production on the shoulders of Ziggy Ansah, Olivier Vernon and rookie Solomon Thomas.  Vernon (in my experience) has always been a slow starter but the signs look good that Ansah is close to a return to form so I expect to see this unit improve from their current 3rd worst position towards the middle of the pack as we go through the year.  There could be problems at DT however where Chris has all his eggs in a Timmy Jernigan-shaped basket, being literally his only player at the position.  I’m sure DynaHard have plans to address this either through trade or free agency but with Jernigan questionable for this week’s game sooner would be better than later!

Offence Average: 112.27 points (4th)
Defence Average: 76.20 points (7th)
Overall Average: 188.47 points (3rd)
Record: 3-1 (1st in Tim)

 

Dynablaster Bombermen

Forging Ahead: Special Teams, Linebackers
Stuck in the Mud: Quarterbacks

On offence this season the Bombermen have been pulled through by their special teams performance as the rest of their unit has been patchy.  Sam Koch is the #3 punter and Will Lutz is the #6 kicker.  Apparently #6 isn’t good enough for The Commish though because Lutz finds himself on the scrapheap, shunted in favour of the mighty Legatron, the #1 kicker in all of football.  Could the league’s 2nd best special teams unit just have made the move to push them ahead of the Sadness into first place?

On defence it’s the Bombermen’s linebackers who are carrying the team however.  Similarly to the Champions of the Sun’s elite unit however there is a lot resting on Ryan Shazier and Chandler Jones here (the #3 and #4 linebackers).  Outside those 2 only have two more LBs in the top 50 (Zach Brown at 33 and Sean Lee at 49.  The Bombermen need to hope that Shazier and Jones can stay fit (something the former has not been able to do historically) and that rookies Reuben Foster and Carl Lawson can build on the promise they’ve shown so far to become solid contributors as the season goes forward.

Maybe I was wrong.  Maybe the Bombermen are the anti-Tamworth Two because the secret of their success this year seems to be not being worse than 6th in the league at anything and then letting your elite special teams and linebackers carry you.  I’m going to criticize their Quarterbacks a bit though because although they are only 7th in the league they are giving away 3.5 points on the average which is reasonably significant.  It’s hard to be too critical though, you would have thought that going into the season with Matt Ryan as your #1 and Tyrod Taylor as your backup would’ve been fine but so far Matt Ryan is giving you a return more like his 2015 version than the Superbowl one.  Hopefully for the Bombermen he’ll turn that around but in the short-term it may actually be worth looking to Tyrod Taylor’s running floor until he does.

Offence Average: 101.70 points (5th)
Defence Average: 82.36 points (2nd)
Overall Average: 184.06 points (4th)
Record: 3-1 (2nd in Tim)

Peter vs. Tim

The last thing to do before I leave you (probably for another year) is a quick look at how Peter and Tim are doing overall.  Maybe this is the year the gap closes?  The year that Peter can finally match or even surpass Tim?

1 2 3 4
Peter 168.18 171.59 155.381 191.744
Tim 170.784 192.183 194.132 169.023
Winner Tim Tim Tim Peter
Margin 2.60 20.59 38.75 -22.72

Not likely, mate.  TIM FOR LIFE!

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 6

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Better late than never!  Or maybe not.  I’ll leave that up to you.  In week 4 I took a look at every team’s offensive performance so far in 2016 and compared it to their 2015 performance to look for improvement and decline.  This week I’ll be doing the same with the defense.  To the stats!

2016 Week 1-6 Average vs 2015 Average
Dungeoneers Brees T2 Sadness Losers Champions Firebirds Kelkowski Hard Bombermen
DT/DE -6.31 4.90 -8.94 1.80 -3.83 4.10 1.40 7.85 -5.02 -2.05
LB -0.29 8.69 3.39 -3.05 7.57 -4.63 3.14 -6.71 -1.17 3.46
CB/S 4.13 2.63 3.08 -9.36 -3.03 -9.20 5.86 -3.58 7.45 -1.51
DEF -2.46 16.22 -2.47 -10.61 0.71 -9.73 10.39 -2.44 1.26 -0.10

Defensive Line

Winners: Kelkowski are crushing it on the D-line this year!  Nearly 8 points up on 2015!  Look a bit deeper though and it has, perhaps, some of the qualities of a mirage.  Firstly, JPP and friends are averaging 22.67 points per game, slightly above average for the D-line.  It’s an improvement but it’s a movement from bottom of the pile to mid-table obscurity.  Secondly, that average is propped up by a massive 63 points in week 3 when the ghost of Malik Jackson briefly turned up to spook Ebeneezer Kelkowski.  Across the other 5 weeks they average 14.6 points, a number better only than Pete’s damp paper bag of a D-line.  Despite losing Aaron Donald, the Brees are functioning better than last season too.  Part of this is due to replacing the best DT in fantasy football with the second best in Fletcher Cox but Michael Bennett and Cameron Jordan are both solid producers too.

Losers: Oh T2, we knew thee well.  After triumphing in the “underwhelming running back” stakes last time out, Goody and Mat show us that they can disappoint on both sides of the ball.  Some of this decline is due to missing pieces (Gerald McCoy and Chandler Jones have been absent much or all of the year) but I think we see an impact of the scoring changes here.  T2 hit big on Kawann Short and Gerald McCoy last season and DTs are probably the group to take the biggest hit from the downgrading of big plays.  Both have scored very well but those 40 point games should be gone now for the most part.  A lot of last year’s big DT scorers have done worse through the start of 2016.  The Dungeoneers d-line is also down 6 points but I don’t think I can kick Pete anymore so let’s leave it at that.

Linebackers

Winners: There are two clear winners in this category, the Brees and the Losers.  Both units were very poor last season so, like Kelkowski’s D-Line, this improvement puts them in the middle of the pack rather than raising them to the top of the charts.  Slatz invested in the position in free agency and the draft with Paul Posluszny and Markus Golden delivering and Deion Jones and Leonard Floyd looking strong through the start of their rookie seasons.  The Brees, meanwhile, seem to have gone for the “2015 Josh Norman” effect and just picked up a player from waivers having a monster season in Lorenzo Alexander.  51 of the 99 points they’ve scored at LB in the last three weeks have been from him.  Improved play from Will Compton and Shaq Barrett is helping but to maintain this improvement they need Alexander to continue playing out of his skin.

Losers: What would Max Cubberley say if you asked him about the decline of his linebackers (4.5 points down on last season).  He’d tell you that they’re still scoring more than anybody else’s linebackers so you can go fuck yourself.  He’d probably also whinge on about injuries and players moving position but lets not give him a platform.  Kelkowski’s overall defensive decline continues here with their linebackers regressing the most out of all the teams (6.7 points down on last season).  Their situation is the reverse of the Losers’ and the Brees’.  Kelkowski’s LBs were among the best in the business last season and this year they’re just… average.  D’Qwell Jackson and Brandon Marshall are the main culprits here and Stephone Anthony’s reduced playing time at strong side LB for the Saints leaves them short a little bit of depth.  Zach Orr is a good wire pickup though who should be able to compensate for that.

Defensive Backs

Winners: Yuk.  Defensive back analysis.  Well, Dyna Hard and the firebirds are both doing better this season than last.  Rodney McLeod was a great pick-up for Chris and Aqib Talib’s 3 INTs so far this year certainly don’t hurt.  Chris’ DBs are comfortably the highest scoring in the league so far this season and his main problem now is the potential for PLOBbage.  With 43 cornerbacks to choose from on any given week, it’s no wonder that Neil is doing well but the PLOBbage is real here.  Trying to predict S and (particularly) CB scoring week on week is far from easy and although Neil has done a good job it must be frustrating to look at your bench every week and see the road not taken.

Losers: The Sadness and the Champions both show an equal decline at the DB spot.  For Cubberley the situation is similar to his LBs.  Despite losing 9 points a game on 2015 the Champions still have the third highest scoring set of DBs in the league so this decline is as much a result of an outlying season of success as anything else.  With Reshad Jones gone for the season now though Maxxxxxx will have to look deep into the waiver wire to try to maintain the pace.  The Sadness, on the other hand, are, by nearly 6 points per game, the worst secondary in the Dbowl.  Their decline is from mediocrity to abject failure.  Looking at the scores of his players for the year to date though you wouldn’t think you were looking at a secondary so adrift from the rest of the field.  To be honest, they’ve scored from disappointing to average every week rather than terribly and this slump is really a result of having no big weeks so far.  A couple of INTs this week could see them pick up and return closer to the average.  DBs, eh?  It’s a funny old game.

Defence

Winners: Although his DB improvement is the best, Neil has improved across the board on defence this season, scoring over 10 points more than last year per game.  At 86.20 points per game, his group is the best in the Dbowl at the moment but the week on week stats show a sharp decline.  In weeks 1-3 the Birds averaged 108 points per game on D.  In weeks 4-6 that number fell to 64 points per game.  He’s had big pieces on bye in each of those weeks but it’s something to keep an eye on.  If I was Neil I would be moving to address the obvious gap at DE in his roster.  Maybe drop a CB or two to make ro… who am I kidding, he’s never going to drop any CBs.  If you think improving by 10 points is impressive, though, look at the Brees!  A 16 point increase!  That takes them to averaging 76 points per game which is… wait… it’s bang average.  Putting aside Pete’s crepe paper D (sorry Pete) the Brees were about that far adrift of everyone else last season.  Really, it would have been more impressive to be so bad two seasons in a row.

Losers: Let’s just check in with Max Cubberley on what he thinks about his defence averaging 10 points fewer than last season.  “Go fuck yourself!”  Thought so.  The Champions are still the second best scoring defence but last week was a low outing from them and this week’s lineup has a few too many waiver wire pickups for my liking.  We’re not too far off a week where Cubberley starts 4 Texans’ linebackers and that can’t be good for anyone.  The Sadness are the other team to have lost 10 points off their average.  Most of that is their secondary, as discussed, though and there is some cause for optimism that those numbers could improve over the season.  Despite Linval Joseph’s monster season so far the Sadness only show a 2 point improvement on the D-Line though and there is room for improvement here.  Mangboob’s DEs are not inspiring and a little trade magic could really help him to improve those numbers and make a playoff push in Peter.

Overall

Winners: It will come as no surprise to anyone that the Bombermen are the big improvement on last season, averaging 24 points more per game than last season’s disappointing results.  You’ll have seen that they were conspicuous by their absence in today’s report and, indeed, their defence is operating at a 0.1 loss on last year.  All of this is offensive improvement and it looks like it has the legs to go all season.  The Sadness are the other big improvement, nearly 15 points up on last year.  This is despite giving 10 points away per game from their receivers and it shows the difference that a certified stud like Zeke Elliot can make.

Losers: Last season’s hot ticket, the Champions of the Sun, are back scrapping with everyone else this year, down 10 points on defence and 6 points on offence.  Despite all of this they’re still scoring well but some thinness at RB and secondary is coming home to roost and they’re now in a position of relying on Trevor Siemian week on week for production.  After them, Tamworth Two are having a ‘mare this season, giving away 8 points a game.  LeSean McCoy is keeping their running game above water on his own and it’s really just the D-line and special teams (!) that account for the decline.

Weekly Stats

TABLES!

Don't Look Blat In Anger
Don’t Look Blat In Anger

Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54  Tim wins.  3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18  Tim wins.  4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)
Week 5: Peter (average) 177.50 vs Tim (average) 176.66  PETER WINS.  4-1 to Tim (victory margin 0.84)
Week 6: Peter (average) 170.47 vs Tim (average) 174.70  Sanity is restored, Tim wins.  5-1 to Tim (victory margin 4.23)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 179.85 vs Tim (average) 192.52. Tim leads (margin 12.68)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 4

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

Well thank Christ for that.  Week 4 is in the books and finally we have some data that is actually starting to mean something.  This feels like the first point in the season, for me, that we can really look at our teams’ performances and start to draw meaningful conclusions.  Over the next two weeks I’m going to take a look at each team’s average score by position group so far this season and compare it to their average from weeks 1 – 16 of last season.  This week: offence.  To the data!

2016 Week 1-4 Average vs 2015 Season 2015 Average
Dungeoneers Brees T2 Sadness Losers Champions Firebirds Kelkowski Hard Bombermen
QB -1.06 -1.08 2.49 5.96 -0.36 4.09 -5.23 -2.22 -6.23 -0.73
RB -3.84 -4.36 -6.44 14.34 4.54 0.84 3.13 9.75 -2.29 13.61
WR/TE -3.59 5.26 2.18 -12.68 6.34 0.42 -9.69 -5.67 -0.41 10.71
SPEC 2.09 0.95 -2.59 -2.10 -0.09 -2.29 -1.11 2.79 -1.22 0.91
OFF -6.41 0.77 -4.37 5.52 10.43 3.06 -12.90 4.65 -10.14 24.49

Yuk.  It looks much prettier in my spreadsheet, you’ll just have to take my word for it.

Quarterback

Winners: So far MANGBOOB has resisted the urge to fiddle about switching Drew Brees in and out with whatever no mark he has down the depth chart and it’s paying dividends with an increase of nearly 6 points on average at the position.  I mean, last season’s performance was a low bar to clear (less than 15 points a week) but a win’s a win.  The Champions are showing an improvement of over 4 points too with Roethlisberger, Eagles aside, going to town so far in 2016.

Losers: So far through 4 weeks, a QB has been in Dyna Hard’s top 10 scorers of the week only once, in week 1 (for comparison, everyone else has had a QB in their top 10 3 or 4 times).  Chris has cycled through Matthew Stafford, Eli Manning and even Marcus Mariota so far, trying to play matchups but those three are simply too hard to predict (well, you could probably predict Marcus Mariota hasn’t been worth starting any of these weeks).  Chris is probably best advised to pick one of Stafford and Manning and stick with them although no doubt whoever he picks will be the wrong one.  The other big loser here is the Firebirds but I’m wary of reading too much into this.  The Seahawks typically take time to get their offence going and Wilson has been banged up.  I think we can expect to see this improve.

Running Backs

Winners: There are two runners way ahead of the pack here, the Sadness and the Bombermen.  Neither of these is difficult to analyse.  Imagine me standing mutely on a stage.  To my right is Ezekiel Elliot.  I am pointing at Ezekiel Elliot.  To my left is David Johnson.  I am pointing at David Johnson.  You can dive a bit deeper and say that both are getting better support from Jeremy Hill and Matt Jones’ raging lack-of-any-competition but you probably don’t need to.

Losers: As many Dynabowl experts predicted (well, one… well, me) at the start of the season, T2 are suffering at tailback this season.  Jonathan Stewart disappeared some time in September and without him LeSean McCoy is trying to navigate choppy waters on his own.  T2 have traded for Bilal Powell this week in an attempt to put things back on course and it’s a good solid move that should help to steer them back towards mediocrity.  The other big loser here is Breeses but, considering their RBs are still the 5th highest scoring in the Dbowl, I don’t think there’s much to read into this.  With Doug Martin injured and Devonta Freeman not scoring three TDs every game it was bound to happen.

Receivers

Winners: The Bombermen are another big winner here and when you consider that between receivers and RBs they’re averaging 24 points more than last season it’s easy to see why they’re top of the rankings.  It feels like this is the production we thought was coming this year so it’s not really a surprise.  It must be very pleasing for Ben to see, having kept faith with Cooks, Benjamin and Jordan Matthews as each came through their own struggles last season.  The Losers and Brees are also much improved here and you can point at off-season trades for Allen Robinson and Jarvis Landry respectively as big factors in this.

Losers: While every category so far has been a triumph for the Sadness, the reading isn’t so pretty here.  Odell Beckham is mouthing off more than he’s balling out and losing Eric Decker and Golden Tate (look, he was good last season) has hurt too.  Stephon Diggs looks like the real deal though and as MANGBOOB’s rookies start to warm up to the NFL this score will head back the right way.  The Firebirds are the next in line to the throne of suffering.  No Gronk, no Demaryius Thomas and no Brady slingin’ it to Edelman probably explains this.  The good news for Neil is that Willie Snead looks to be a good WR 2/3 going forward and that Gronk and Brady will be back firing on all cylinders soon.  The real person to look to for trouble here is Pete.  Cooper doesn’t get a sniff in the end zone and Allen and Kevin White are done for the season.  That -4 is only going down from here I’m afraid.

Special Teams

Winners: We are all winners because we play in a league with fantasy punters.  Every day I wake up a little bit happier than I would have been otherwise, knowing that this is the case.  Now, if only we could get those fantasy Long Snappers in.

Losers: All those plebs out there who restrict themselves to a fantasy kicker.  They don’t know what they’re missing.  The only thing better than a great punt is an awful punt.

Offence

Winners: The Bombermen are a whopping 25 points better this season on offence than last season, turning from a middle of the road goose (they weren’t bad enough to be an ugly duckling) into a swan.  Most of that 25 points is accounted for above so I will take the time to draw attention to the second most improved team on offence, the Dynasore Losers.  I haven’t mentioned them much in any of the categories above because their improvement has more been about building on what came before.  Good gains at receiver at and running back pair with holding steady at QB and special teams to produce a strong growth.

Losers: Dyna Hard are one of the biggest losers compared to last year, their offence being 10 points down on last season’s performance.  Much of that is accounted for in QB as mentioned above but it’s worth noting that they are worse in every single offensive position this season, a worrying trend.  Bottom of the pile are Neil’s Firebirds with a modest gain at RB from CJ Anderson’s new-found reliability not enough to counteract that weakened receiver corps and a banged-up Russell Wilson.  The question really is, if Neil is giving 13 points away on offence compared to last season then how has he had such a decent start to the season?  Tune in to next week’s blat to find out…

Weekly Stats

Here are your stats after week 4.

Blat Once Again With The Renegade Master
Blat Once Again For The Renegade Master

 

Peter vs. Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)
Week 3: Peter (average) 192.11 vs Tim (average) 212.54  Tim wins.  3-0 to Tim (victory margin 20.43)
Week 4: Peter (average) 175.27 vs Tim (average) 198.18  Tim wins.  4-0 to Tim (victory margin 22.91)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 182.78 vs Tim (average) 200.94. Tim leads (margin 18.17)

Oh dear.  That margin just keeps growing.  I might have to call this for Tim.  TKO.

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 2

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

For this week’s Stat Blat I thought I’d take the subject of my week 2 Stat Blat from last season and expand it.  In Week 2 of the 2015 season I looked at the average points from 2014 and 2015 through two weeks to looks for early indicators of squad improvement and design, as well as looking at potential points on average to see what impact GM selection was having.  I’ll be doing a similar idea this week.  For those of you who might claim I’m only doing this again so I don’t have to think of a new thing to look at, you’re quite right.

Reality Bites

Below is a table of comparisons for average points in weeks 1-2 of 2014, 2015 and 2016, ordered by 2015 finishing order.

Team Name 2015 Standing 2014 Wk2 2015 Wk2 2016 Wk2 POA Diff
Champions 11-2 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (192 poa) 1-1 (216 poa) +11/+24
Tamworth 2 7-6 2-0 (185 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 0-2 (184 poa) -18/+17
Dyna Hard 10-3 0-2 (168 poa) 2-0 (223 poa) 0-2 (176 poa) +55/-47
Kelkowski 6-7 2-0 (212 poa) 0-2 (153 poa) 1-1 (160 poa) -59/+7
Bombermen 6-7 0-2 (168 poa) 0-2 (156 poa) 2-0 (224 poa) -12/+68
Sadness 4-9 0-2 (129 poa) 0-2 (154 poa) 1-1 (174 poa) +25/+20
Losers 6-7 2-0 (175 poa) 1-1 (167 poa) 1-1 (190 poa) -3/+23
Dungeoneers 5-8 1-1 (161 poa) 2-0 (158 poa) 1-1 (171 poa) -3/+13
Breeses 6-7 1-1 (146 poa) 0-2 (152 poa) 1-1 (191 poa) +6/+39
Firebirds 4-9 1-1 (137 poa) 1-1 (181 poa) 2-0 (206 poa) +44/+25

 

The obvious story on the positive side is the Dynablaster Bombermen.  After a disappointing 2015 they’ve come out gangbusters in 2016 with a massive 68 point average performance jump from 2015.  A big part of that has to be their receivers with Brandin Cooks, Kelvin Benjamin and Jordan Matthews all in their 3rd years now and established as the number 1 options on their team.

Behind the B-men there are a cluster of teams showing significant improvement in the 20s range.  The Firebirds have started stronger each year of the Dbowl so far and have been propelled to a 2-0 start by the surprising strength of their defence, averaging 112 points per game, the best in the league.  The Dynasore Losers have also improved on 2015 and have had their strongest start yet, despite being 1-1.  Offensive improvement is key here as the team is averaging 15 points more on offence through 2 games then they did in 2015, much of it contributable to a shift to Carson Palmer at QB and Matt Forte’s huge workload in New York.

The Sadness have shown steady improvement now for two years but when you consider that they still only averaged 174 points this year so far then it’s clear that this is just the continuing story of a team struggling towards mediocrity after an awful initial draft.  Still, improvement is improvement and the team is young.  If they jump 20 points again next year they could find themselves 2-0.  Lastly, the Champions (in every sense of the word) may be 1-1 but have shown improvement again this year.  This may not be a sign that they are in for another dominant year though as they actually started slowly last season.  The second highest average points scored shows that they are still a force to be reckoned with though.

On the other hand, you have to look at Chris Braithwaite’s Dyna Hard With A Vengeance and wonder what went wrong.  They were hugely improved last season but seem to have lost all of that positive gain this year, losing 47 points on average.  As I highlighted in my preview, the running backs are a problem with none of them averaging over 10 points a game but the WRs are struggling too.  Only Antonio Brown is over 20 total points, none of the rest are even close.  The offence is averaging less than 100 points a game.  Only the Firebirds are worse and, unlike Neil’s team, Chris’ defence is not firing on all cylinders.

Interestingly, Chris is the only team to be averaging less points than this time last year.  Every other team is showing improvement.  This doesn’t seem to be a result of scoring changes as it’s actually the offences that are scoring higher than last year’s averages, rather than the defences.  Teams as a whole are averaging 189 points compared to 184 from last season.  Maybe we’re all just getting better at this shit?

Is It Indicative?

Is there really any point to this?  Does performance in the first two weeks of the season actually tell you anything about how a team will do that season?  Below is each team’s Week 2 Average and Season Average.

Team Name 2015 Wk2 Wk2 Rk 2015 Season Season Rk POA Diff
Champions 2-0 (192 poa) 2nd 11-2 (217 poa) 1st +25
Tamworth 2 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 7-6 (189 poa) 3rd +22
Dyna Hard 2-0 (223 poa) 1st 10-3 (199 poa) 2nd -24
Kelkowski 0-2 (153 poa) 9th 6-7 (189 poa) 3rd +36
Bombermen 0-2 (156 poa) 7th 6-7 (183 poa) 4th +27
Sadness 0-2 (154 poa) 8th 4-9 (179 poa) 5th +25
Losers 1-1 (167 poa) 4th 6-7 (176 poa) 7th +9
Dungeoneers 2-0 (158 poa) 6th 5-8 (168 poa) 9th +10
Breeses 0-2 (152 poa) 10th 6-7 (171 poa) 8th +19
Firebirds 1-1 (181 poa) 3rd 4-9 (178 poa) 6th -3

 

The thing that jumps out to me straight away is the reasonably consistent rate of improvement for teams.  5 of the 10 teams improved by 19 to 27 points over the course of the season on average.  This, presumably, is down to a combination of waiver wire pickups and starting lineup adjustment as the stars stashed on your bench in week 1 and 2 start to show.  The biggest risers were Kelkowski.  Looking at their lineups it’s noticeable that players like Blake Bortles, Brandon Marshall (LB), Reggie Nelson and Kwon Alexander weren’t in the starting lineup in week 1 and other big performers like Spencer Ware and Malik Jackson weren’t even on the squad yet.

To me it seems telling that the only team to lose average points (who didn’t start out abnormally hot like DynaHarder) was the Firebirds.  Neil only added 8 players through blind-bid waivers last season.  The four teams who added the most players?  Champions of the Sun (42), DynaHarder (40), Tamworth Two (30) and Kelkowski (28), i.e. the four teams in the playoffs at the end of the season.  Obviously there is a lot more to being successful in the Dynabowl than constantly churning through waiver wire additions but there’s no denying that the right pickups can have a huge effect and, just like the draft, the more tickets you buy to the lottery the more chance you have to come away with a Josh Norman, a Spencer Ware, an Allen Hurns, a Whitney Mercilus or a Willie Snead.

As far as the question of whether week 2 results are indicative or not is concerned, no team except Kelkowski moved more than 3 positions from their Week 2 Ranking to their Season Ranking.  You can improve in your score in the early weeks for sure but the best/luckiest GMs will also be improving so your ability to make up ground on those people is limited.  However, it is definitely possible to stagnate and not improve over the season.  Everyone around you will be getting better and their scores will be getting higher.  You need to do everything you can, whether that’s waiver wire additions, trades or rotating in from your bench wisely, to improve with them.

Weekly Stats

Here are your weekly averages for week 2.

Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?
Why do you Blat me up, buttercup?

Weekly Peter vs Tim Watch

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim (victory margin 12.46)
Week 2: Peter (average) 184.04 vs Tim (average) 200.91.  Tim wins.  2-0 to Tim (victory margin 16.87)

Season to Date: Peter (average) 181.86 vs Tim (average) 196.53. Tim leads (margin 14.67)

MAX’S STAT BLATS! Week 1

League Business Max Stat Blats Stat Attacks No Comments

The first week of the NFL season is all about overreaction and the jerking of knees.  To honour that I will be looking at everyone’s opening week performances and drawing some wild conclusions about what it means for the season ahead.  In the absence of enough data to actually draw any real conclusions that’ll just have to do for you.

East Flanders Dungeoneers

Hot Take: Keenan Allen is broken!  Quincy Enunwa is the new Brandon Marshall!  Carson Palmer’s about to go full Peter!  I remembered Kevin White plays for the Bears!  Coby Fleener didn’t get Drew Brees a birthday cake!  That’s right, my wild conclusion for Pete’s Dungeoneers is that their receiver group that looked so good on paper in pre-season is actually a stinking turd.  “But Maxuell,” I hear you cry, “The Dungeoneers scored 6.38 points per receiver, which was bad, but the Firebirds were worse at 5.94 points per receiver!”  It’s true, the Dungeoneers were only the second worst team on a points per starter basis this week but the Birds had 7.4 per player on the bench and the Dungeoneers had 5.4.

Srsly? Yes.  Allen is really done and the Bears’ offence looks pretty dire.  Fleener’s situation does not look good either and Pete’s backup TEs don’t look great.  Obviously it’s not as bad as all that.  Cooper is still a stud and Marshall and Floyd will get theirs but I had high hopes for this group that look like they won’t be borne out.

Here Comes The Brees

Hot Take: The Breeses are the best team in Peter (not saying much, I know, see below).  Andrew Luck is back to his gunslingin’ best and even in a week where Doug Martin, Devonta Freeman and Lamar Miller didn’t get into top gear the Breeses’ offence still averaged 11.57 points per starter, good for 2nd in the league.  The defence was in the bottom half of the league as you’d imagine but this team has the raw power to bludgeon other teams to death with the power of their attacking options.

Srsly? Yes.  The Breeses and the Sadness were the best two teams in Peter this week by a comfortable margin.  Looking at the rosters of the 5 teams there’s no doubt that the Brees have the edge in offensive power so as long as their defence can maintain its position of slightly below mediocre then they should be good to go.

Tamworth Two

Hot Take: Tamworth Two will be picking at #1 in the 2017 rookie draft.  T2’s starters in week 1 were uninspiring.  I mean, they’re rolling out 52 year-old Anquan Boldin at WR and a Cleveland RB.  Things look better on the defensive side of the ball but the nerfing of big plays brings the ceiling down on their elite DTs and it’s not hard to see everyone else except Kuechly and Jones hanging T2 out to dry.  This team is very average rather than bad but everyone else has upped their game and Mat are getting left in the dirt.

Srsly? No.  Everything’s very close in Peter to my mind so it’s not impossible but I think T2 have enough quality and Mat and James are good enough GMs that they won’t finish bottom.  Although they have Slatz’ first round pick so they may still end up with the #1 pick in the rookie draft…

The People’s Republic of the 4th Dynmension: Dynasty of Sadness

Hot Take: Teddy Tinyhands’ injury will lead the Sadness to the playoffs.  We all know Michael likes to tinker.  He’s never happy with his lineups and his choices and he’s always going backwards and forwards.  This often leads to him getting too clever on his choices and overthinking them.  For that reason, Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury was a very good thing for the Sadness.  Drew Brees is a consistent, top of the line fantasy QB and he was on the bench for the Sadness last season.  Now, unless Mangboob develops inexplicable Brockules man-love, Brees will be starting every game he’s available for and the Sadness will be better for it.  Perhaps the hotter take here is that I think the Detroit RBs will pave the way for a playoff appearance but both Abdullah and Riddick looked great and Mangboob could start both of them in a week and still be confident of results.

Srsly? No.  The Colts looked monumentally bad on Defence in the game against the Lions and Riddick and Abdullah will not get that open that often against many teams.  On the Brees front, I trust him, I just don’t trust Mike.  It’s a three way QBBC with Brockules and Goff when he starts.  Don’t ask me how it makes any sense, I don’t get it either.

Dynasore Losers

Hot Take: The Losers should be in re-building mode.  Look, they low-scored this week, they were third bottom in points scored last season and bottom in potential points.  Their running back corps consists of two 30+ year-old guys and a random assortment of limbs.  His defence looks like it was assembled by accident.  It’s time to get over that deep-seated tradeophobia, ship out some of the top talent and stack picks for the next couple of drafts.  Re-building around Moncrief, Landry and that stable of young QBs is the way forward for the Losers and week 1 proved it.

Srsly? Yes.  The team lacks youth and depth and you’re relying on a very high hit rate in the draft to get out of that if you don’t sell assets and stack picks up.  Free Agency should improve in quality over the next few years so it’s not impossible to rebuild that way but if Slater looked to sell the likes of Wilkerson, Forte and Sanders he could go into the 2017 draft with 10+ good picks and maybe even get back into the first round.

DynaForOne Firebirds

Hot Take: The Firebirds will make it to the Owl again.  A week 1 victory against the reigning champs?  Check.  A monster defensive performance?  Check.  The renaissance of CJ Anderson?  Check.  A dominant offence?  Ch… wait.  Oh.  Lowest scoring offence this week, you say?  Only 5.94 points per starting receiver, you say?  Second worst QB performance after Kirk Cousins, you say?  Oh.  Look, the fact that Neil’s boys put up nearly 200 points and won their matchup despite a poor offensive performance is exactly why I’m backing them.  You think Snead will be on the bench next week?  You forget that the Seahawks offence often starts slow?  Geno Atkins and Ndamukong Suh won’t put up over 40 points every week but they won’t need to.  I can see this team going places.

Srsly? No.  Of course not.  Neil will probably trade away all of his good players for a second tier DE and a 5th round pick.

Dyna Hard With A Vengeance

Hot Take: Braithwaite’s boys will be held back by weak running backs.  So, Gurley is a bust right?  OK, that may be an over-reaction but when the opposing defence can put ten players within 6 yards of the line of scrimmage on 1st and 10 because they know your QB can’t throw it further than that you’re going to be really up against it.  Apart from Gurley Chris is calling on Jamaal Charles (not healthy and coming back to a backfield dominated by Spencer Ware) and Jeremy Langford (just shit and only scoring points because there’s no-one better there yet) to do the business.  The rest of his RBs are long-shot rookies or backups and this could get ugly.  In week 1 they averaged 7.87 points per starter and 2.13 per player left on the bench (of which Shaun Draughn was the top scorer with his 16 yards and 1 vultured TD).  Gurley will have his big weeks but I don’t like any of the rest of these guys to produce consistently.

Srsly? Yes.  The hot take is harsh on Charles who isn’t the kind of player you don’t give a role to when healthy but I do think there will still be a big role for Ware all season long and that caps his ceiling.  Jeremy Langford’s best case scenario is that he keeps the job and continues to churn away his 3-3.5 YPC but any week he doesn’t get in the end zone is likely to be a low scorer.  Chris doesn’t have the TEs to only play 2 TEs and his best bet might be to hope for an injury to Rawls or Ryan Matthews to get Christine Michael or Kenjon Barner involved.

Kelkowski Don’t Play By No DynaRules

Hot Take: Kelkowski have one of the top three defences in the league.  3.58 per starter at DT/DE (7th in the league), 4.06 at CB (worst in the league) and 53.50 points total on defence (worst in the league).  Those stats should tell you everything you need to know to backup the point right?  Look, no-one’s going to pretend this defensive performance from Kelkowski wasn’t disappointing.  I imagine the men (man?) themselves had something to say to their players after the game but the reality is that the majority of this bad performance was down to a low-scoring secondary and a donut from Malik Jackson.  Every secondary in the league can have bad games, the position is very fickle, and Kelkowski have a good group full of potential.  Malik Jackson will start to rack up the points once he adjust fully to playing in Jacksonville and they still have one of the strongest groups of LBs in the league.  They’ll be fine.

Srsly? Yes.  This really is a very talented bunch who just had an off day.  Kelkowski were good in 2014, they were good again in 2015 and they’ll be good again this year.  Someone over there (presumably Ian because it’s almost certainly not Jay) knows what they’re doing.

Champions of the Sun

Hot Take: The Champions of the Sun will go from first to worst in Tim.  It was only a freakish performance from Ben Roethlisberger and DeAngelo Williams that even made this week 1 matchup with the Firebirds respectable.  The Champions scored ok on offence (largely due to the two already mentioned) but their much vaunted defence of last season did not show up at all.  Their 63.18 points was good for 8th worst and the main problem was upfront where their line scored a measly 1.75 points per player.  There was an average of 6.83 points per player on the bench but whether Cubberley has the nous to pick the right players week-on-week is seriously up for debate.

Srsly? Of course not, I’m a hustler baby.  Here comes Owl number 2!

Dynablaster Bombermen

Hot Take: Week 1 was a flash in the pan and the Bombermen will slide back to the pack and miss the playoffs.  The Bombermen were the best team by a country mile in week 1 with a whopping 13.72 points per player on offence (best in the league).  Their receivers racked up 85.8 points, only just missing out on the top 5 receiving performances of all time in the league.  So am I a crazy person?  That all depends on whether you think Melvin Gordon is going to get 2 TDs per fame when the Chargers are always playing catchup.  Or on whether you think Ryan Shazier (questionable for the weekend with a knee injury, again) can play regularly.  Or on whether you think Jordan Matthews is breaking out or if you think he was just up against the Browns.  There are obviously stars on this team (AJ Green, David Johnson, Brandin Cooks, Aaron Donald, Greg Olsen) but I think week 1 was just right place, right time, their QBs are terrible and this kind of performance won’t be repeated every week.

Srsly? No.  Did you see the list of players I wrote down as the stars on the team?!  I even left some out.  The Bombermen are stacked.  They were many people’s favourites to win the Owl in 2015 and week 1 establishes them among the favourites to win it this year.

Weekly Stats

If I remember, I’ll post up a picture of the year’s average stats here when I do a blat.

Nothin' but the stats, ma'am.
Nothin’ but the stats, ma’am.

 

Weekly Peter vs Tim-watch: For two seasons now, Peter has been the Wallace Shawn to Tim’s Andre the Giant but could the tide be turning?  Every Stat Blat I will take a couple of lines to compare Peter vs Tim so we can all keep an eye on the situation.

Week 1: Peter (average) 179.68 vs Tim (average) 192.14.  Tim wins.  1-0 to Tim.

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