What’s A Pick Really Worth? (The Offence)

After reading Ian’s piece, and the discussion following it, it occurred to me that one of the things we’ve all be struggling with is understanding what the baseline for success for a #1 or #6 etc pick looks like. Last year’s rookie class was headlined by guys like Odell Beckham Jr and Mike Evans, who both look like bargains, but what about in normal or quiet years. How good does a QB or DE have to be to justify a #1 pick, compared to say an RB or WR? That’s what I’m going to attempt to answer.

To do this I’m going to use a method that fits with the rules of the league, and specifically those around extensions. For anyone not aware (if only there were rules somewhere to refer to), extensions are priced based on the best single season ranking a player achieves over a three year period, and that is then compared to the salary rankings for the same position. This is done over bands of rankings, rather than individual positions. For the purposes of working out what a rookie should produce over his contract I’ve done something similar but in reverse, taking the guaranteed contract value and comparing where it would rank among the salaries we pay. I’ve then looked what players ranked at that position (on performance, not salary) produced. As a final step, I’ve also looked at the performance of players over the last 20 years at each position over the first four years of their careers to give an idea of real players who’s performances they’d be hoping to mirror over the lifetime of their rookie contract. Because each position has a different range of salaries, this is done on a position-by-position basis, but I’ve excluded kickers and punters, because a $20/4 year commitment doesn’t have a comparator for a punter.

One last thing, before someone says it, but this ignores the opportunity cost of signing a QB who goes on to be a franchise QB for three reasons. Firstly, that’s very difficult to quantify and I don’t want to try. Secondly, the player would need to be extended, or would go through a UFA / RFA period that would reset their value closer to the market value. Thirdly, there’s always players, like Marshawn Lynch, who take time and the right situation to become a top player, it’s highly unlikely anyone sitting on Lynch during his disappointing Buffalo and early Seattle days would have kept the player on his rookie deal and probably would have cut him or let him hit UFA long before he became the top five back he is now. But mostly it’s difficult and I can’t be bothered.

Clear? Probably not, but hopefully it’ll become clearer as we get started…

Quarterbacks

So, if you’re looking at spending a top 3 pick on a QB, you’d be paying the 11th highest QB salary in the Dynabowl. And for that over the last three years you’d be looking at a 1/3rd Matthew Stafford, 2/3rds Tony Romo hybrid who averages 267.6 points per season. This isn’t impossible for a rookie QB – Luck, Newton and Wilson have achieved much more than that, but you are talking about the player having to be a legitimately good NFL starting QB for each season of their deal. At the lower end Ryan, Tannehill and Dalton wouldn’t quite have justified the contract, but they still put together reasonably good performances over their rookie deals. Garcia and Manning are a bit older, and they highlight the way the league has changed with the best week one rookie starters now scoring 50+ points more per season. With Mariota and Winston, my previous mock draft made them late round one selections. To justify that sort of pick they’d need to be Dalton / Tannehill level talents over their rookie contracts, and it’s not unreasonable to see them hitting that sort of level.

One thing that is clear, a rookie quarterback is going to struggle to fill a roster spot, as even the best Quarterbacks through their first four years will struggle to be a top 10 position player.

Running Backs

Much like quarterbacks the running backs don’t get starting money, but a top pick is paid at the level of a viable flex pick. By the end of the second round you’re basically already into back ups, fliers and handcuff territory with comparison players like Ben Tate or Alfred Blue. Branden Oliver who values out in comparison as a late first round $11 dollar sort of player has just been picked up on free agency for $14.

One noticeable difference from quarterbacks is the difference in quality of comparison players. A $20 dollar QB compares to guys who have put up the best first four years of any QB over the past two decades. By comparison the elite running backs are nowhere near the comparison level, so guys like Adrian Peterson, Ladanian Tomlinson or Le’Veon Bell would represent absolute steals even over their rookie contracts. 267.6 points per season is the 5th best points total over for a QB in their first four seasons in the last 20 years, while 130.2 would only be the 62nd best by a running back.

No doubt with the depth and talent of the running back pool in the 2015 draft, there is a lot of value to be had in this area, and players like Gurley and Gordon who come with big reputations could prove to be cheap cornerstones for their teams for their whole rookie terms, even if they were picked #1 overall.

Paying $11 for 4 years for Kevin Smith is still a waste, but it’s considerably less painful than what Detroit paid him.

Before we go on to receivers, let’s pause for a second and appreciate the parents who named their child Napoleon Kaufman.

Wide Receivers

Much like with running backs wide receiver rookie salaries aren’t significant, however a top pick should be expected to produce at least WR3 numbers, dropping to flex numbers around the 7th pick to the middle of the second round and situational or bench numbers in the late second round. Also like running backs, there’s a pretty wide margin for players to represent real value. A $20 receiver would have been the 23rd best paid player at the position and to score 138 points per year over their contract. The best rookie receiver of the past 20 years is Randy Moss, who put up 213 points per game and 138 points puts you at around the 32nd best rookie over that period (when you think about it, that means picking the best receiver in the draft is an almost guaranteed value pick).

Where you do see a difference between receivers and running backs is in long term value. There’s some very good names who haven’t scored great through their early seasons, well enough to justify their contracts, but not brilliantly but have kicked on in later seasons, or when their situations have improved. Demaryius Thomas, or Brandon Marshall stand out from the top picks who did well rather than exceptionally in those early years, but developed to become top 10 guys. It’s certainly not a stretch to see Cooper or White justifying the top money, and the later first round picks in the NFL draft should all more than justify consideration anywhere in the first couple of rounds.

Tight End

A $20 tight end is a starter, and any pick in the top 6 would need to be a potential starter, but it is possible for a tight end to achieve the performance level required. That said, that level is high – Aaron Hernandez, Antonio Gates, Rob Gronkowski, Tony Gonzalez. These are (or were in the case of Hernandez) elite players at the position. It’s unlikely a tight end would be taken so high, but even a tight end in the second round would need to be a flex option (not necessarily a used one) for their team, and a solid bench player to justify the contract. However, the level of points scored and the comparisons show that a solid bench player basically only requires a player who lands in a good situation with a half decent quarter back. As long as those two things are in place, then a tight end is a viable late first or second round pick with a reasonable upside. There is not, however, the same sort of opportunity to hit gold that you can with a receiver or running back and while the bar for success isn’t as high as it is for a quarterback, the potential return is not as good either.